References

Adkins SW, Bellairs SM, Loch DS (2002) Seed dormancy mechanisms in warm-season grass species. Euphytica 126, 13–20.
| CrossRef | CAS |

Amin MHG, Hall LD, Chorley RJ, Richards KS (1998) Infiltration into soils, with particular reference to its visualization and measurement by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Progress in Physical Geography 22, 135–165.
| CrossRef |

Beaumont LJ, Pitman AJ, Poulsen M, Hughes L (2007) Where will all the species go? Incorporating new advances in climate modelling into projections of species distributions. Global Change Biology 13, 1368–1385.
| CrossRef |

Beaumont LJ, Hughes L, Pitman AJ (2008) Why is the choice of future climate scenarios for species distribution modelling important? Ecology Letters 11, 1135–1146.

Boyd NS, Van Acker RC (2003) The effects of depth and fluctuating soil moisture on the emergence of eight annual and six perennial plant species. Weed Science 51, 725–730.
| CrossRef | CAS |

Cleland EE, Chuine I, Menzel A, Mooney HA, Schwartz MD (2007) Shifting plant phenology in response to global change. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 22, 357–365.
| CrossRef |

Colhoun EA (2002) Periglacial landforms and deposits of Tasmania. South African Journal of Science 98, 55–63.

Coronato FR, Bertiller MB (1996) Precipitation and landscape related effects on soil moisture in semi-arid rangelands of Patagonia. Journal of Arid Environments 34, 1–9.
| CrossRef |

CSIRO (2007) Climate change in Australia: technical report 2007. CSIRO, Canberra.

de Mazancourt C, Johnson E, Barraclough TG (2008) Biodiversity inhibits species’ evolutionary responses to changing environments. Ecology Letters 11, 380–388.
| CrossRef | CAS |

Dermody O, Weltzin JF, Engel EC, Allen P, Norby RJ (2007) How do elevated [CO₂], warming, and reduced precipitation interact to affect soil moisture and LAI in an old field ecosystem? Plant and Soil 301, 255–266.
| CrossRef | CAS |

Dovey SB, de Clercq W, du Toit B (2011) A comparison of soil moisture relations between standing and clearfelled plots with burnt and unburnt harvest residue treatments of a clonal eucalypt plantation on the Zululand Coastal Plain, South Africa. Water SA 37, 483–494.
| CrossRef |

Duller GAT, Augustinus PC (2006) Reassessment of the record of linear dune activity in Tasmania using optical dating. Quaternary Science Reviews 25, 2608–2618.
| CrossRef |

English NB, Weltzin JF, Fravolini A, Thomas L, Williams DG (2005) The influence of soil texture and vegetation on soil moisture under rainout shelters in a semi-desert grassland. Journal of Arid Environments 63, 324–343.
| CrossRef |

Evans CE, Etherington JR (1990) The effect of soil water potential on seed germination of some British plants. New Phytologist 115, 539–548.
| CrossRef |

Evans CE, Etherington JR (1991) The effect of soil water potential on seedling growth of some British plants. New Phytologist 118, 571–579.
| CrossRef |

Gazanchian A, Khosh Kholg Sima NA, Malboobi MA, Heravan EM (2006) Relationships between emergence and soil water content for perennial cool-season grasses native to Iran. Crop Science 46, 544–553.
| CrossRef |

Gibson DJ (2009) ‘Grasses and grassland ecology.’ (Oxford University Press: Oxford, UK)

Groves RH, Hagon MW, Ramakrishnan PS (1982) Dormancy and germination of seed of eight populations of Themeda australis. Australian Journal of Botany 30, 373–386.
| CrossRef |

Grubb PJ (1977) The maintenance of species-richness in plant communities: the importance of the regeneration niche. Biological Reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 52, 107–145.
| CrossRef |

Grundy AC, Mead A (2000) Modelling weed emergence as a function of meteorological records. Weed Science 48, 594–603.
| CrossRef | CAS |

Gummerson RJ (1986) The effect of constant temperatures and osmotic potential on the germination of sugar beet. Journal of Experimental Botany 37, 729–741.
| CrossRef |

Hagon MW (1976) Germination and dormancy of Themeda australis, Danthonia spp., Stipa bigeniculata and Bothriochloa macra. Australian Journal of Botany 24, 319–327.
| CrossRef | CAS |

Hagon MW, Chan CW (1977) The effects of moisture stress on the germination of some Australian native grass seeds. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture and Animal Husbandry 17, 86–89.
| CrossRef |

Hagon MW, Groves RH (1977) Some factors affecting the establishment of four native grasses. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture and Animal Husbandry 17, 90–96.
| CrossRef |

Harradine AR, Whalley RDB (1980) Reproductive development and seedling establishment of Aristida ramosa R.Br. in northern New South Wales. Australian Rangeland Journal 2, 124–135.
| CrossRef |

Hovenden MJ, Miglietta F, Zaldei A, Van der Schoor JK, Wills KE, Newton PCD (2006) The TasFACE climate change impacts experiment: design and performance of combined elevated CO₂ and temperature enhancement in a native Tasmanian grassland. Australian Journal of Botany 54, 1–10.
| CrossRef |

Hovenden MJ, Wills KE, Vander Schoor JK, Chaplin RE, Williams AL, Nolan MJ, Newton PCD (2007) Flowering, seed production and seed mass in a species-rich temperate grassland exposed to FACE and warming. Australian Journal of Botany 55, 780–794.
| CrossRef |

Hovenden MJ, Newton PCD, Wills KE, Janes JK, Williams AL, Van der Schoor JK, Nolan MJ (2008a) Influence of warming on soil water potential controls seedling mortality in perennial but not annual species in a temperate grassland. New Phytologist 180, 143–152.
| CrossRef |

Hovenden MJ, Wills KE, Chaplin RE, Van der Schoor JK, Williams AL, Osanai Y, Newton PCD (2008b) Warming and elevated CO₂ affect the relationship between seed mass, germinability and seedling growth in Austrodanthonia caespitosa, a dominant Australian grass. Global Change Biology 14, 1633–1641.
| CrossRef |

Huntington TG (2006) Evidence for the intensification of the global water cycle: review and synthesis. Journal of Hydrology (Amsterdam) 319, 83–95.
| CrossRef |

Huxtable CHA, Whalley RDB (1999) Emergence and survival of three native grass species sown on roadsides on the Northern Tablelands, New South Wales, Australia. Australian Journal of Botany 47, 221–235.
| CrossRef |

Huxtable CHA, Koen TB, Waterhouse D (2005) Establishment of native and exotic grasses on mine overburden and topsoil in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales. The Rangeland Journal 27, 73–88.
| CrossRef |

IPCC (2007) The AR4 synthesis report. IPCC Secretariat, Geneva.

Kershaw P, Moss P, van der Kaars S (2003) Causes and consequences of long-term climatic variability on the Australian continent. Freshwater Biology 48, 1274–1283.
| CrossRef |

Khurana E, Singh JS (2000) Influence of seed size on seedling growth of Albizia procera under different soil water levels. Annals of Botany 86, 1185–1192.
| CrossRef |

Lauenroth WK, Sala OE, Coffin DP, Kirchner TB (1994) The importance of soil water in the recruitment of Bouteloua gracilis in the shortgrass steppe. Ecological Applications 4, 741–749.
| CrossRef |

Lenz TI, Facelli JM (2005) The role of seed limitation and resource availability in the recruitment of native perennial grasses and exotics in a South Australian grassland. Austral Ecology 30, 684–694.
| CrossRef |

Lodge GM (1981) Establishment of warm- and cool-season native perennial grasses on the north-west slopes of New South Wales. II Establishment and seedling survival in the field. Australian Journal of Botany 29, 121–133.
| CrossRef |

Lodge GM (2001) Studies of soil seedbanks in native and sown pastures in northern New South Wales. The Rangeland Journal 23, 204–223.
| CrossRef |

Lodge GM (2004) Seed dormancy, germination, seedling emergence, and survival of some temperate perennial pasture grasses in northern New South Wales. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 55, 345–355.
| CrossRef |

Long SP, Ainsworth EA, Rogers A, Ort DR (2004) Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide: plants FACE the future. Annual Review of Plant Biology 55, 591–628.
| CrossRef | CAS |

Miller PC, Poole DK, Miller PM (1983) The influence of annual precipitation, topography, and vegetative cover on soil moisture and summer drought in southern California. Oecologia 56, 385–391.
| CrossRef |

Mintz Y, Serafini YV (1992) A global monthly climatology of soil moisture and water balance. Climate Dynamics 8, 13–27.
| CrossRef |

Mintz Y, Walker GK (1993) Global fields of soil moisture and land surface evapotranspiration derived from observed precipitation and surface air temperature. Journal of Applied Meteorology 32, 1305–1334.
| CrossRef |

Moles AT, Westoby M (2004) What do seedlings die from and what are the implications for evolution of seed size? Oikos 106, 193–199.
| CrossRef |

O’Connor TG (1996) Hierarchical control over seedling recruitment of the bunch-grass Themeda triandra in a semi-arid savanna. Journal of Applied Ecology 33, 1094–1106.
| CrossRef |

Padilla FM, Pugnaire FI (2007) Rooting depth and soil moisture control Mediterranean woody seedling survival during drought. Functional Ecology 21, 489–495.
| CrossRef |

Perring MP, Cullen BR, Johnson IR, Hovenden MJ (2010) Modelled effects of rising CO₂ concentration and climate change in native perennial grass and sown grass–legume pastures. Climate Research 42, 65–78.
| CrossRef |

Peters DPC (2000) Climatic variation and simulated patterns in seedling establishment of two dominant grasses at a semi-arid-arid grassland ecotone. Journal of Vegetation Science 11, 493–504.
| CrossRef |

Pitman AJ, Perkins SE (2008) Regional projections of future seasonal and annual changes in rainfall and temperature over Australia based on skill-selected AR4 models. Earth Interactions 12, 1–50.
| CrossRef |

Quinn GP, Keough MJ (2002) ‘Experimental design and data analysis for biologists.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK)

Rees ABH, Cwynar LC (2010) Evidence for early postglacial warming in Mount Field National Park, Tasmania. Quaternary Science Reviews 29, 443–454.
| CrossRef |

Reich PB, Hungate BA, Luo Y (2006) Carbon–nitrogen interactions in terrestrial ecosystems in response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 37, 611–636.
| CrossRef |

Rinaldi M, Di Paolo E, Richter GM, Payne RW (2005) Modelling the effect of soil moisture on germination and emergence of wheat and sugar beet with the minimum number of parameters. The Annals of Applied Biology 147, 69–80.
| CrossRef |

Rustad LE, Campbell JL, Marion GM, Norby RJ, Mitchell MJ, Hartley AE, Cornelissen JHC, Gurevitch J, GCTE-NEWS (2001) A meta-analysis of the response of soil respiration, net nitrogen mineralization, and aboveground plant growth to experimental ecosystem warming. Oecologia 126, 543–562.
| CrossRef |

Sala OE, Lauenroth WK, Parton WJ (1992) Long-term soil water dynamics in the shortgrass steppe. Ecology 73, 1175–1181.
| CrossRef |

SAS Institute Inc. (2003) ‘SAS/STAT user’s guide, version 9.1.’ (SAS publishing: Cary, NC)

Silvertown J, Charlesworth D (2001) ‘Introduction to plant population biology.’ (Blackwell Scientific: Oxford, UK)

Sindel BM, Davidson SJ, Kilby MJ, Groves RH (1993) Germination and establishment of Themeda triandra (kangaroo grass) as affected by soil and seed characteristics. Australian Journal of Botany 41, 105–117.
| CrossRef |

Singh JS, Milchunas DG, Lauenroth WK (1998) Soil water dynamics and vegetation patterns in a semiarid grassland. Plant Ecology 134, 77–89.
| CrossRef |

Turnbull LA, Crawley MJ, Rees M (2000) Are plant populations seed-limited? A review of seed sowing experiments. Oikos 88, 225–238.
| CrossRef |

Weltzin JF, McPherson GR (2000) Implications of precipitation redistribution for shifts in temperate savanna ecotones. Ecology 81, 1902–1913.
| CrossRef |

Xia Q, Zhao J-X, Collerson KD (2001) Early-mid Holocene climatic variations in Tasmania, Australia: multi-proxy records in a stalagmite from Lynds Cave. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 194, 177–187.
| CrossRef | CAS |

Young DR, Nobel PS (1986) Predictions of soil-water potentials in the north-western Sonoran Desert. Journal of Ecology 74, 143–154.
| CrossRef |