CSIRO Publishing blank image blank image blank image blank imageBooksblank image blank image blank image blank imageJournalsblank image blank image blank image blank imageAbout Usblank image blank image blank image blank imageShopping Cartblank image blank image blank image You are here: Journals > Crop and Pasture Science   
Crop and Pasture Science
Journal Banner
  Plant sciences, sustainable farming systems and food quality
blank image Search
blank image blank image
blank image
  Advanced Search

Journal Home
About the Journal
Editorial Structure
Online Early
Current Issue
Just Accepted
Virtual Issues
All Issues
Special Issues
Research Fronts
Farrer Reviews
Sample Issue
For Authors
General Information
Submit Article
Author Instructions
Open Access
For Referees
Referee Guidelines
Review an Article
Annual Referee Index
For Subscribers
Subscription Prices
Customer Service
Print Publication Dates
Library Recommendation

blue arrow e-Alerts
blank image
Subscribe to our Email Alert or RSS feeds for the latest journal papers.

red arrow Connect with us
blank image
facebook twitter logo LinkedIn

red arrow Farrer Reviews
blank image

Invited Farrer Review Series. More...

red arrow PrometheusWiki
blank image
Protocols in ecological and environmental plant physiology


Article << Previous     |     Next >>   Contents Vol 60(11)

Re-inventing model-based decision support with Australian dryland farmers. 4. Yield Prophet® helps farmers monitor and manage crops in a variable climate

Z. Hochman A F, H. van Rees B C, P. S. Carberry D, J. R. Hunt B, R. L. McCown D, A. Gartmann B, D. Holzworth D, S. van Rees B, N. P. Dalgliesh D, W. Long E, A. S. Peake D, P. L. Poulton D, T. McClelland B

A Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit (APSRU), CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, 306 Carmody Road, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia.
B BCG, PO Box 85, Birchip, Vic. 3483, Australia.
C Cropfacts P/L, 69 Rooney Rd, RSD Strathfieldsaye, Vic. 3551, Australia.
D Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit (APSRU), CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, PO Box 103, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia.
E Ag Consulting Co., PO Box 70, Ardrossan, SA 5571, Australia.
F Corresponding author. Email: zvi.hochman@csiro.au
PDF (785 KB) $25
 Export Citation


In Australia, a land subject to high annual variation in grain yields, farmers find it challenging to adjust crop production inputs to yield prospects. Scientists have responded to this problem by developing Decision Support Systems, yet the scientists’ enthusiasm for developing these tools has not been reciprocated by farm managers or their advisers, who mostly continue to avoid their use.

Preceding papers in this series described the FARMSCAPE intervention: a new paradigm for decision support that had significant effects on farmers and their advisers. These effects were achieved in large measure because of the intensive effort which scientists invested in engaging with their clients. However, such intensive effort is time consuming and economically unsustainable and there remained a need for a more cost-effective tool. In this paper, we report on the evolution, structure, and performance of Yield Prophet®: an internet service designed to move on from the FARMSCAPE model to a less intensive, yet high quality, service to reduce farmer uncertainty about yield prospects and the potential effects of alternative management practices on crop production and income.

Compared with conventional Decision Support Systems, Yield Prophet offers flexibility in problem definition and allows farmers to more realistically specify the problems in their fields. Yield Prophet also uniquely provides a means for virtual monitoring of the progress of a crop throughout the season. This is particularly important for in-season decision support and for frequent reviewing, in real time, of the consequences of past decisions and past events on likely future outcomes.

The Yield Prophet approach to decision support is consistent with two important, but often ignored, lessons from decision science: that managers make their decisions by satisficing rather than optimising and that managers’ fluid approach to decision making requires ongoing monitoring of the consequences of past decisions.

Keywords: DSS, APSIM, climate risk, risk management, wheat, barley.

Subscriber Login

Legal & Privacy | Contact Us | Help


© CSIRO 1996-2016