CSIRO Publishing blank image blank image blank image blank imageBooksblank image blank image blank image blank imageJournalsblank image blank image blank image blank imageAbout Usblank image blank image blank image blank imageShopping Cartblank image blank image blank image You are here: Journals > Marine & Freshwater Research   
Marine & Freshwater Research
Journal Banner
  Advances in the Aquatic Sciences
 
blank image Search
 
blank image blank image
blank image
 
  Advanced Search
   

Journal Home
About the Journal
Editorial Board
Contacts
Content
Online Early
Current Issue
Just Accepted
All Issues
Special Issues
Research Fronts
Sample Issue
For Authors
General Information
Instructions to Authors
Submit Article
Open Access
For Referees
General Information
Review Article
Referee Guidelines
Annual Referee Index
For Subscribers
Subscription Prices
Customer Service
Print Publication Dates

blue arrow e-Alerts
blank image
Subscribe to our Email Alert or RSS feeds for the latest journal papers.

red arrow Connect with us
blank image
facebook twitter youtube

 

Open Access Article << Previous     |     Next >>   Contents Vol 62(9)

Using species distribution models to infer potential climate change-induced range shifts of freshwater fish in south-eastern Australia

Nick Bond A B C F , Jim Thomson A , Paul Reich A D and Janet Stein E

A School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Vic. 3800, Australia.
B eWater Cooperative Research Centre, Monash University, Clayton, Vic. 3800, Australia.
C Present address: Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, Qld 4111, Australia.
D Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Sustainability and Environment, Heidelberg, Vic. 3084, Australia.
E The Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.
F Corresponding author. Email: n.bond@griffith.edu.au

Marine and Freshwater Research 62(9) 1043-1061 http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/MF10286
Submitted: 16 November 2010  Accepted: 11 June 2011   Published: 21 September 2011


 
 Full Text
 PDF (1.4 MB)
 Export Citation
 Print
  
Abstract

There are few quantitative predictions for the impacts of climate change on freshwater fish in Australia. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) linking historical fish distributions for 43 species from Victorian streams to a suite of hydro-climatic and catchment predictors, and applied these models to explore predicted range shifts under future climate-change scenarios. Here, we present summary results for the 43 species, together with a more detailed analysis for a subset of species with distinct distributions in relation to temperature and hydrology. Range shifts increased from the lower to upper climate-change scenarios, with most species predicted to undergo some degree of range shift. Changes in total occupancy ranged from –38% to +63% under the lower climate-change scenario to –47% to +182% under the upper climate-change scenario. We do, however, caution that range expansions are more putative than range contractions, because the effects of barriers, limited dispersal and potential life-history factors are likely to exclude some areas from being colonised. As well as potentially informing more mechanistic modelling approaches, quantitative predictions such as these should be seen as representing hypotheses to be tested and discussed, and should be valuable for informing long-term strategies to protect aquatic biota.

Additional keywords: bioclimatic model, conservation planning, environmental filters, hydrology, prediction, validation.


References

Araújo, M. B., Pearson, R. G., Thuiller, W., and Erhard, M. (2005). Validation of species–climate impact models under climate change. Global Change Biology 11, 1504–1513.
CrossRef |

Balcombe, S. R., Sheldon, F., Capon, S. J., Bond, N. R., Marsh, N., Hadwen, W. L., and Bernays, S. J. (2011). Climate-change threats to native fish in degraded rivers and floodplains of the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia. Marine and Freshwater Research 62, 1099–1114.
CrossRef |

Barton, B. A. (1996). General biology of salmonids. In ‘Principles of Salmonid Culture’. (Eds W. Pennel and B. A. Barton.) pp. 29–96. (Elsevier: Amsterdam.)

Bond, N. R., Lake, P. S., and Arthington, A. H. (2008). The impacts of drought on freshwater ecosystems: an Australian perspective. Hydrobiologia 600, 3–16.
CrossRef |

Bond, N. R., McMaster, D., Reich, P., Thomson, J., and Lake, P. S. (2010). Modelling the impacts of flow regulation on fish distributions in naturally intermittent lowland streams: an approach for predicting restoration responses. Freshwater Biology 55, 1997–2010.
CrossRef |

Booth, D. J., Bond, N., and Macreadie, P. (2011). Detecting range shifts among Australian fishes in response to climate change. Marine and Freshwater Research 62, 1027–1042.
CrossRef |

Boulton, A. J., and Hancock, P. J. (2006). Rivers as groundwater-dependent ecosystems: a review of degrees of dependency, riverine processes and management implications. Australian Journal of Botany 54, 133–144.
CrossRef |

Buckley, L., Urban, M., and Angilletta, M. (2010). Can mechanism inform species’ distribution models? Ecology Letters 13, 1041–1054.

Buisson, L., and Grenouillet, G. (2010). Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on stream fish assemblages. American Fisheries Society Symposium 73, 327–346.

Bureau of Meteorology (2002). ‘Climatic Atlas of Australia.’ (Bureau of Meteorology, National Climate Centre: Canberra.)

Burgman, M. A. (2005). ‘Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.)

Chu, C., Mandrak, N., and Minns, C. (2005). Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions of several common and rare freshwater fishes in Canada. Diversity & Distributions 11, 299–310.
CrossRef |

CSIRO (2008). Water availability in the Murray–Darling Basin. A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Murray–Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra.

Davis, A. J., Jenkinson, L. S., Lawton, J. H., Shorrocks, B., and Wood, S. (1998). Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature 391, 783–786.
CrossRef | CAS |

Dormann, C. F. (2007). Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions. Basic and Applied Ecology 8, 387–397.
CrossRef |

Efron, B., and Tibshirani, R. J. (1997). Improvements on cross-validation: the 632+ bootstrap method. Journal of the American Statistical Association 92, 548–560.
CrossRef |

Elith, J., and Leathwick, J. (2009). Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annual Review of Ecology 40, 677–697.

Elith, J., Leathwick, J. R., and Hastie, T. (2008). A working guide to boosted regression trees. Journal of Animal Ecology 77, 802–813.
CrossRef | CAS |

Elith, J., Kearney, M., and Phillips, S. (2010). The art of modelling range-shifting species. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 1, 330–342.
CrossRef |

Friedman, J. H. (2001). Greedy function approximation: a gradient boosting machine. Annals of Statistics 29, 1189–1232.
CrossRef |

Gibson, C., Meyer, J., Poff, N., Hay, L., and Georgakakos, A. (2005). Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: implications for freshwater ecosystems. River Research and Applications 21, 849–864.
CrossRef |

Growns, I., and West, G. (2008). Classification of aquatic bioregions through the use of distributional modelling of freshwater fish. Ecological Modelling 217, 79–86.
CrossRef |

Guisan, A., and Thuiller, W. (2005). Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters 8, 993–1009.
CrossRef |

Heikkinen, R., Luoto, M., and Araújo, M. (2006). Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change. Progress in Physical Geography 30, 751–777.
CrossRef |

IPCC (2001). ‘Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis.’ Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Eds J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C. A. Johnson.) (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK and New York, USA.)

Jones, R., and Durack, P. (2005). ‘Estimating the Impacts of Climate Change on Victoria’s Runoff Using a Hydrological Sensitivity Model.’ (CSIRO Atmospheric Research: Melbourne.)

Kearney, M., and Porter, W. (2009). Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species’ ranges. Ecology Letters 12, 334–350.
CrossRef |

Kennard, M. J., Olden, J. D., Arthington, A. H., Pusey, B. J., and Poff, N. L. (2007). Multiscale effects of flow regime and habitat and their interaction on fish assemblage structure in eastern Australia. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 64, 1346–1359.
CrossRef |

Kennard, M. J., Mackay, S. J., Pusey, B. J., Olden, J. D., and Marsh, N. (2010a). Quantifying uncertainty in estimation of hydrologic metrics for ecohydrological studies. River Research and Applications 26, 137–156.

Kennard, M. J., Pusey, B. J., Olden, J. D., Mackay, S. J., Stein, J. L., and Marsh, N. (2010b). Classification of natural flow regimes in Australia to support environmental flow management. Freshwater Biology 55, 171–193.
CrossRef |

Koehn, J. D., and O’Connor, W. G. (1990). ‘Biological Information for Management of Native Freshwater Fish in Victoria.’ (Department of Conservation and Environment: Melbourne.)

Leathwick, J. R., Rowe, D., Richardson, J., Elith, J., and Hastie, T. (2005). Using multivariate adaptive regression splines to predict the distributions of New Zealand’s freshwater diadromous fish. Freshwater Biology 50, 2034–2052.
CrossRef |

Lyons, J., Stewart, J. S., and Mitro, M. (2010). Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, USA. Journal of Fish Biology 77, 1867–1898.
CrossRef | CAS |

Morrongiello, J. R., Beatty, S. J., Bennett, J. C., Crook, D. C., Ikedife, D. N. E. N., Kennard, M. J., Kerezsy, A., Lintermans, M., McNeil, D. G., Pusey, B. J., and Rayner, J. (2011). Climate change and its implications for Australia's freshwater fish. Marine and Freshwater Research 62, 1082–1098.
CrossRef |

Merrick, J. R., and Schmida, G. E. (1984). ‘Australian Freshwater Fishes: Biology and Management.’ (Griffin Press: Netley, SA.)

Olden, J. D., Jackson, D. A., and Peres-Neto, P. R. (2002). Predictive models of fish species distributions: a note on proper validation and chance predictions. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 131, 329–336.
CrossRef |

Olden, J. D., Lawler, J. J., and Poff, N. L. (2008). Machine learning methods without tears: a primer for ecologists. The Quarterly Review of Biology 83, 171–193.
CrossRef |

Palmer, M. A., Reidy, C., Nilsson, C., Florke, M., Alcamo, J., Lake, P. S., and Bond, N. R. (2007). Climate change and the world’s river basins: anticipating response options. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 6, 81–89.
CrossRef |

Pearce, J., and Ferrier, S. (2000). Evaluating the predictive performance of habitat models developed using logistic regression. Ecological Modelling 133, 225–245.
CrossRef |

Poff, N. L., and Allan, D. J. (1995). Functional organization of stream fish assemblages in relation to hydrological variability. Ecology 76, 606–627.
CrossRef |

Poff, N. L., Tokar, S., and Johnson, P. (1996). Stream hydrological and ecological responses to climate change assessed with an artificial neural network. Limnology and Oceanography 41, 857–863.
CrossRef |

Pollino, C. A., Feehan, P., Grace, M. R., and Harr, B. T. (2004). Fish communities and habitat changes in the highly modified Goulburn Catchment, Victoria, Australia. Marine and Freshwater Research 55, 769–780.
CrossRef |

Pratchett, M. S., Bay, L. K., Gehrke, P. C., Koehn, J. D., Osborne, K., Pressey, R. L., Sweatman, H. P. A., and Wachenfeld, D. (2011). Contribution of climate change to degradation and loss of critical fish habitats in Australian marine and freshwater environments. Marine and Freshwater Research 62, 1062–1081.
CrossRef |

Quist, M. C., Hubert, W. A., and Rahel, F. J. (2005). Fish assemblage structure following impoundment of a Great Plains river. Western North American Naturalist 65, 53–63.

R Development Core Team (2009). ‘R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing.’ (R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna.) Available at http://www.r-project.org/ [Accessed 3 August 2011].

Ridgeway, G. (2007). ‘Generalized Boosted Models: A Guide to the gbm Package.’ Available at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/gbm/gbm.pdf [accessed 5 July 2011].

Sanborn, S., and Bledsoe, B. (2006). Predicting streamflow regime metrics for ungauged streams in Colorado, Washington, and Oregon. Journal of Hydrology 325, 241–261.
CrossRef |

Sinclair, S., White, M., and Newell, G. (2010). How useful are species distribution models for managing biodiversity under future climates? Ecology and Society 15, Article 8.

Sinclair Knight Merz (2005). Development and application of a flow stresses ranking procedure. A report produced by Sinclair Knight Merz for the Department of Sustainability and Environment, Victoria, Melbourne.

Smakhtin, V. U. (2001). Low flow hydrology: a review. Journal of Hydrology 240, 147–186.
CrossRef |

Stein, J. L., Stein, J. A., and Nix, H. A. (2002). Spatial analysis of anthropogenic river disturbance at regional and continental scales: identifying the wild rivers of Australia. Landscape and Urban Planning 60, 1–25.

Stein, J. L. (2006). ‘A Continental Landscape Framework for Systematic Conservation Planning for Australian Rivers and Streams.’ (PhD Thesis, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Australian National University: Canberra.) Available at http://hdl.handle.net/1885/49406 [accessed 30 August 2011].

Thuiller, W. (2007). Biodiversity: climate change and the ecologist. Nature 448, 550–552.
CrossRef | CAS |

Trueman, W. T. (2007). Some recollections of native fish in the Murray–Darling system with special reference to the trout cod. Native Fish Australia, Melbourne.

Walsh, C., Stewardson, M., Stein, J., and Wealands, S. (2007). ‘Sustainable Rivers Audit Filters Project Stage 2, Report to Murray Darling Basin Commission.’ (School of Enterprise, The University of Melbourne: Melbourne).

Williams, J. W., and Jackson, S. T. (2007). Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5, 475–482.
CrossRef |


   
 
    
Legal & Privacy | Contact Us | Help

CSIRO

© CSIRO 1996-2014