CSIRO Publishing blank image blank image blank image blank imageBooksblank image blank image blank image blank imageJournalsblank image blank image blank image blank imageAbout Usblank image blank image blank image blank imageShopping Cartblank image blank image blank image You are here: Journals > Wildlife Research   
Wildlife Research
Journal Banner
  Ecology, management and conservation in natural and modified habitats
 
blank image Search
 
blank image blank image
blank image
 
  Advanced Search
   

Journal Home
About the Journal
Editorial Structure
Contacts
Content
Current Issue
Just Accepted
All Issues
Special Issues
Sample Issue
For Authors
General Information
Scope
Submit Article
Author Instructions
Open Access
For Referees
Referee Guidelines
Review an Article
Annual Referee Index
For Subscribers
Subscription Prices
Customer Service
Print Publication Dates
Library Recommendation

blue arrow e-Alerts
blank image
Subscribe to our Email Alert or RSS feeds for the latest journal papers.

red arrow Connect with us
blank image
facebook twitter logo LinkedIn

 

Article << Previous     |     Next >>   Contents Vol 29(6)

Rabbit haemorrhagic disease in New Zealand: field test of a disease–host model

N. D. Barlow, M. C. Barron and J. Parkes

Wildlife Research 29(6) 649 - 653
Published: 30 December 2002

Abstract

An earlier published model, parameterised from qualitative data from Europe and detailed observations of the first simple epidemic in Australia, gave a good fit to longer-term (3 year) data from New Zealand, without any re-tuning of parameters. Changing some of the unknown disease parameters further improved the model's fit, but two problems remained. Firstly, predicted proportions seropositive are too high if rabbit densities are as low as observed, and if the proportions seropositive are correct then the predicted densities are too high. Secondly, observed rabbit densities do not show obvious peaks of recruitment, as predicted by the model with and without RHD. Possible reasons for these discrepancies are suggested, and initial trials with the model suggested that a novel transmission mechanism involving both direct (rabbit to rabbit) and indirect (via free-living virus) transmission may help explain both high suppression and low antibody levels. The main conclusions from the original model remain unaffected by its testing against new data, namely: rabbit populations are likely to be suppressed in the long term by about 75%; the pattern of epidemics is determined largely by intrinsic disease behaviour rather than seasonality, though the latter may tune this to some extent; there tend to be yearly epidemics; percentages of rabbits infected at any one time are low (around 5%) but this does not imply low impact; maternal antibodies have little effect on RHD dynamics; RHD may persist in low-density as well as high-density populations but give less suppression; and additional control may eradicate disease, at least temporarily.



Full text doi:10.1071/WR00091

© CSIRO 2002

blank image
Subscriber Login
Username:
Password:  

 
PDF (188 KB) $25
 Export Citation
 Print
  
    
Legal & Privacy | Contact Us | Help

CSIRO

© CSIRO 1996-2016