Towards enhanced risk management: planning, decision making and monitoring of US wildfire response
Christopher J. Dunn A , David E. Calkin B and Matthew P. Thompson C D
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Department of Forest Engineering and Resource Management, 280 Peavy Hall, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
B Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 800 East Beckwith Avenue, Missoula, MT 59801, USA.
C Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 240 West Prospect Road, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA.
D Corresponding author. Email: mpthompson02@fs.fed.us
International Journal of Wildland Fire 26(7) 551-556 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17089
Submitted: 2 June 2017 Accepted: 15 June 2017 Published: 10 July 2017
Abstract
Wildfire’s economic, ecological and social impacts are on the rise, fostering the realisation that business-as-usual fire management in the United States is not sustainable. Current response strategies may be inefficient and contributing to unnecessary responder exposure to hazardous conditions, but significant knowledge gaps constrain clear and comprehensive descriptions of how changes in response strategies and tactics may improve outcomes. As such, we convened a special session at an international wildfire conference to synthesise ongoing research focused on obtaining a better understanding of wildfire response decisions and actions. This special issue provides a collection of research that builds on those discussions. Four papers focus on strategic planning and decision making, three papers on use and effectiveness of suppression resources and two papers on allocation and movement of suppression resources. Here we summarise some of the key findings from these papers in the context of risk-informed decision making. This collection illustrates the value of a risk management framework for improving wildfire response safety and effectiveness, for enhancing fire management decision making and for ushering in a new fire management paradigm.
Additional keywords: fire economics, fire fighters, fire suppression.
References
Abatzoglou JT, Williams AP (2016) Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113, 11770–11775.| Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC28Xhs1elur3K&md5=31fba046ed9ce3f66e307429597a31b7CAS |
Belval EJ, Wei Y, Calkin DE, Stonesifer CS, Thompson MP, Tipton JR (2017) Studying interregional wildland engine assignments for large fire suppression. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26, 642–653.
| Studying interregional wildland engine assignments for large fire suppression.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Butry DT, Gumpertz M, Genton MG (2008) The production of large and small wildfires. In ‘The Economics of Forest Disturbances: Wildfires, Storms, and Invasive Species’. (Eds TP Holmes, JP Prestemon, KL Abt) pp.79–106. (Springer: Dordrecht, Netherlands)
Calkin DE, Finney MA, Ager AA, Thompson MP, Gebert KM (2011) Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for US federal wildland fire policy and decision making. Forest Policy and Economics 13, 378–389.
| Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for US federal wildland fire policy and decision making.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Calkin DE, Venn T, Wibbenmeyer M, Thompson MP (2013) Estimating US federal wildland fire managers’ preferences toward competing strategic suppression objectives. International Journal of Wildland Fire 22, 212–222.
| Estimating US federal wildland fire managers’ preferences toward competing strategic suppression objectives.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Calkin DE, Stonesifer CS, Thompson MP, McHugh CW (2014) Large airtanker use and outcomes in suppressing wildland fires in the United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire 23, 259–271.
| Large airtanker use and outcomes in suppressing wildland fires in the United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Calkin DE, Thompson MP, Finney MA (2015) Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management. Forest Ecosystems 2, 9
| Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Duff TJ, Tolhurst KG (2015) Operational wildfire suppression modelling: a review evaluating development, state of the art and future directions. International Journal of Wildland Fire 24, 735–748.
| Operational wildfire suppression modelling: a review evaluating development, state of the art and future directions.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Finney M, Grenfell IC, McHugh CW (2009) Modeling containment of large wildfires using generalized linear mixed-model analysis. Forest Science 55, 249–255.
Fire Executive Council (2009) Guidance for implementation of the Federal Wildland Fire Policy. Available at https://www.nifc.gov/policies/policies_main.html [Verified 1 February 2017]
Haas JR, Calkin DE, Thompson MP (2013) A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into Wildland Urban Interface risk assessments within the United States. Landscape and Urban Planning 119, 44–53.
| A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into Wildland Urban Interface risk assessments within the United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hand MS, Wibbenmeyer MJ, Calkin DE, Thompson MP (2015) Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy tradeoffs in wildfire management. Risk Analysis 35, 1876–1891.
| Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy tradeoffs in wildfire management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hand M, Katuwal H, Calkin DE, Thompson MP (2017) The influence of management teams on the deployment of wildfire suppression resources. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26, 615–629.
| The influence of management teams on the deployment of wildfire suppression resources.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Holmes TP, Calkin DE (2013) Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires. International Journal of Wildland Fire 22, 246–255.
| Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Ingalsbee T (2017) Whither the paradigm shift? Large wildland fires and the wildfire paradox offer opportunities for a new paradigm of ecological fire management. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26, 557–561.
| Whither the paradigm shift? Large wildland fires and the wildfire paradox offer opportunities for a new paradigm of ecological fire management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
ISO (2009) ISO 31000:2009(E), Risk management – principles and guidelines. Geneva, Switzerland: International Organization for Standardization. Available at http://www.iso.org/iso/home/standards/iso31000.htm [Verified 30 May 2017]
Jolly WM, Freeborn PH (2017) Towards improving wildand firefighter situational awareness through daily fire behaviour risk assessments in the US Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26, 574–586.
| Towards improving wildand firefighter situational awareness through daily fire behaviour risk assessments in the US Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Katuwal H, Calkin DE, Hand MS (2016) Production and efficiency of large wildland fire suppression effort: a stochastic frontier analysis. Journal of Environmental Management 166, 227–236.
| Production and efficiency of large wildland fire suppression effort: a stochastic frontier analysis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Katuwal H, Dunn CJ, Calkin DE (2017) Characterising resource use and potential inefficiencies during large-fre suppression in the western US. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26, 604–614.
| Characterising resource use and potential inefficiencies during large-fre suppression in the western US.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Mendes I (2010) A theoretical economic model for choosing efficient wildfire suppression strategies. Forest Policy and Economics 12, 323–329.
| A theoretical economic model for choosing efficient wildfire suppression strategies.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Moritz MA, Batllori E, Bradstock RA, Gill AM, Handmer J, Hessburg PF, Leonard J, McCaffrey S, Odion DC, Schoennagel T, Syphard AD (2014) Learning to coexist with wildfire. Nature 515, 58–66.
| Learning to coexist with wildfire.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC2cXitFanu77P&md5=ce36b298954e3e2e3ed54dc193decb5cCAS |
National Interagency Fire Center (2017) Interagency standards for fire and fire aviation operations 2017. Available at https://www.nifc.gov/policies/pol_ref_redbook.html [Verified 24 May 2017]
North M, Stephens S, Collins B, Agee J, Aplet G, Franklin J, Fulé P (2015) Reform forest fire management. Science 349, 1280–1281.
| Reform forest fire management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC2MXhs1SrsLzI&md5=2a69f2653e78155a20016c454d8ce483CAS |
O’Connor CD, Thompson MP, Rodriguez Y, Silva F (2016) Getting ahead of the wildfire problem: quantifying and mapping management challenges and opportunities. Geosciences 6, 35
| Getting ahead of the wildfire problem: quantifying and mapping management challenges and opportunities.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
O’Connor CD, Calkin DE, Thompson MP (2017) An empirical machine learning method for predicting potential fire control locations for pre-fire planning and operational fire management. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26, 587–597.
| An empirical machine learning method for predicting potential fire control locations for pre-fire planning and operational fire management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Olson RL, Bengston DN, DeVaney LA, Thompson TAC (2015) Wildland fire management futures: insights from a foresight panel. USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, General Technical Report NRS-152. (Newtown Square, PA, USA)
Plucinski MP, Pastor E (2013) Criteria and methodology for evaluating aerial wildfire suppression. International Journal of Wildland Fire 22, 1144–1154.
| Criteria and methodology for evaluating aerial wildfire suppression.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Rodríguez y Silva F, González-Cabán A (2016) Contribution of suppression difficulty and lessons learned in forecasting fire suppression operations productivity: a methodological approach. Journal of Forest Economics 25, 149–159.
| Contribution of suppression difficulty and lessons learned in forecasting fire suppression operations productivity: a methodological approach.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Schoennagel T, Balch JK, Brenkert-Smith H, Dennison PE, Harvey BJ, Krawchuk MA, Mietkiewicz N, Morgan P, Moritz MA, Rasker R, Turner MG, Whitlock C (2017) Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 114, 4582–4590.
| Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC2sXmtFGgu78%3D&md5=8d3c1e45327cd935dc5798e322795cb2CAS |
Stephens SL, Agee JK, Fule PZ, North MP, Romme WH, Swetnam TW, Turner MG (2013) Managing forests and fire in changing climates. Science 342, 41–42.
| Managing forests and fire in changing climates.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3sXhsF2jtrjE&md5=34a9385dca0a2639f3ad0406c53b7764CAS |
Stephens SL, Collins BM, Biber E, Fulé PZ (2016) US federal fire and forest policy: emphasizing resilience in dry forests. Ecosphere 7, e01584
| US federal fire and forest policy: emphasizing resilience in dry forests.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stonesifer CS, Calkin DE, Thompson MP, Stockmann KD (2016) Fighting fire in the heat of the day: an analysis of operational and environmental conditions of use for large airtankers in United States fire suppression. International Journal of Wildland Fire 25, 520–533.
| Fighting fire in the heat of the day: an analysis of operational and environmental conditions of use for large airtankers in United States fire suppression.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stonesifer CS, Calkin DE, Hand MS (2017) Federal fire managers’ perceptions of the importance, scarcity and substitutability of suppression resources. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26, 598–603.
| Federal fire managers’ perceptions of the importance, scarcity and substitutability of suppression resources.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Thompson MP (2014) Social, institutional, and psychological factors affecting wildfire incident decision making. Society & Natural Resources 27, 636–644.
| Social, institutional, and psychological factors affecting wildfire incident decision making.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Thompson MP, Calkin DE, Herynk J, McHugh CW, Short KC (2013) Airtankers and wildfire management in the US Forest Service: examining data availability and exploring usage and cost trends. International Journal of Wildland Fire 22, 223–233.
| Airtankers and wildfire management in the US Forest Service: examining data availability and exploring usage and cost trends.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Thompson MP, Dunn CJ, Calkin DE (2015) Wildfires: systemic changes required. Science 350, 920
| Wildfires: systemic changes required.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC2MXhvFKrtb%2FK&md5=760caba0101e170194fa3e7bfeb0664fCAS |
Thompson MP, MacGregor DG, Calkin DE (2016a) Risk management: core principles and practices, and their relevance to wildland fire. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-350. (Fort Collins, CO, USA)
Thompson MP, Dunn CD, Belval E, Stockmann K, Stonesifer C, Wei Y, Calkin DE (2016b) Towards efficient large fire management: monitoring, modeling and accountability. In ‘Proceedings for the 5th International Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference’, 11–15 April 2016, Portland, OR, USA. pp. 167–172. (International Association of Wildland Fire: Missoula, MT, USA)
Thompson MP, Bowden P, Brough A, Scott JH, Gilbertson-Day J, Taylor A, Anderson J, Haas JR (2016c) Application of wildfire risk assessment results to wildfire response planning in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Forests 7, 64
| Application of wildfire risk assessment results to wildfire response planning in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Thompson MP, Rodriguez y Silva F, Calkin DE, Hand MS (2017) A review of challenges to determining and demonstrating efficiency of large fire management. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26, 574–586.
| A review of challenges to determining and demonstrating efficiency of large fire management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
US Department of Interior and US Department of Agriculture (2014) National cohesive wildland fire management strategy. Available at https://www.forestsandrangelands.gov/strategy/ [Verified 10 April 2017]
Wei Y, Belval EJ, Thomspon MP, Calkin DE, Stonesifer CS (2017) A simulation and optimisation procedure to model daily suppression resource transfers during a fire season in Colorado. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26, 630–641.
| A simulation and optimisation procedure to model daily suppression resource transfers during a fire season in Colorado.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wibbenmeyer MJ, Hand MS, Calkin DE, Venn TJ, Thompson MP (2013) Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: a choice experiment with US wildfire managers. Risk Analysis 33, 1021–1037.
| Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: a choice experiment with US wildfire managers.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Yoe C (2011) ‘Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making under Uncertainty.’ (CRC Press: Boca Raton, FL, USA)
