Emu Emu Society
Journal of BirdLife Australia
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Projected direct and indirect effects of climate change on the Swift Parrot, an endangered migratory species

Luciana L. Porfirio A B E , Rebecca M. B. Harris C , Dejan Stojanovic B , Mathew H. Webb B and Brendan Mackey D
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Building 002, Wilf Crane Crescent, Yarralumla, ACT 2601, Australia.

B The Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, B48A, Linneaus Way, Acton, ACT 0200, Australia.

C Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), University of Tasmania, Private Bag 80, Hobart, Tas. 7000, Australia.

D Griffith Climate Change Response Program, Academic 1 Building (G01), Gold Coast campus, Griffith University, Parklands Drive, Southport, Qld 4222, Australia.

E Corresponding author. Email: Luciana.Porfirio@csiro.au

Emu 116(3) 273-283 https://doi.org/10.1071/MU15094
Submitted: 14 September 2015  Accepted: 25 January 2016   Published: 24 May 2016

Abstract

Assessing future changes in the suitability of the climate niche for interacting species across different trophic levels can identify direct and indirect effects of climate change that may be missed using single-species approaches. We use ensembles of species distribution models based on a dynamically down-scaled regional climate model to project the future suitability of climate for the Swift Parrot (Lathamus discolor), its primary food and habitat resources (Tasmanian Blue Gum (Eucalyptus globulus) and Swamp Gum (E. ovata)), and an introduced nest predator, the Sugar Glider (Petaurus breviceps). These results are combined with layers representing mature forest and fire danger to identify locations that may act as refuges for the Swift Parrot from fire, deforestation and predation under baseline and future climates. Almost a quarter of the nesting habitat of Swift Parrots is projected to become climatically unsuitable by the end of the 21st century, but large areas may remain climatically suitable for both Swift Parrots and their food trees. However, loss of forests and the presence of Sugar Gliders are likely to limit the availability of high-quality habitat. Offshore islands that the Sugar Glider is unable to colonise or where future climate is not projected to be suitable for the Sugar Glider may be the only places, in the near future, where the Swift Parrot will be protected from nest predation by this introduced species.

Additional keywords: Eucalypts, migratory bird, model ensemble, refugia, species distribution models, species interactions, Sugar Glider, trophic level.


References

Anderson, B. J., Armsworth, P. R., Eigenbrod, F., Thomas, C. D., Gillings, S., Heinemeyer, A., Roy, D. B., and Gaston, K. J. (2009). Spatial covariance between biodiversity and other ecosystem service priorities. Journal of Applied Ecology 46, 888–896.
Spatial covariance between biodiversity and other ecosystem service priorities.CrossRef |

Araújo, M., and Guisan, A. (2006). Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. Journal of Biogeography 33, 1677–1688.
Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling.CrossRef |

Araújo, M., and Luoto, M. (2007). The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species distributions under climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography 16, 743–753.
The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species distributions under climate change.CrossRef |

Araújo, M. B., and New, M. (2007). Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 22, 42–47.
Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.CrossRef |

Arnell, N. (2004). Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14, 31–52.
Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios.CrossRef |

Barbet-Massin, M., Jiguet, F., Albert, C. H., and Thuiller, W. (2012). Selecting pseudo-absences for species distribution models: how, where and how many? Methods in Ecology and Evolution 3, 327–338.
Selecting pseudo-absences for species distribution models: how, where and how many?CrossRef |

Beaumont, L., and Gallagher, R. (2009). Modelling the impact of Hieracium spp. on protected areas in Australia under future climates. Ecography 32, 757–764.
Modelling the impact of Hieracium spp. on protected areas in Australia under future climates.CrossRef |

Brereton, R., Mallick, S., and Kennedy, S. (2004). Foraging preferences of Swift Parrots on Tasmanian Blue-gum: tree size, flowering frequency and flowering intensity. Emu 104, 377–383.
Foraging preferences of Swift Parrots on Tasmanian Blue-gum: tree size, flowering frequency and flowering intensity.CrossRef |

Burnham, K., and Anderson, D. (2002). ‘Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach.’ (Springer-Verlag: New York, NY)

Caryl, F. M., Thomson, K., and van der Ree, R. (2013). Permeability of the urban matrix to arboreal gliding mammals: Sugar Gliders in Melbourne, Australia. Austral Ecology 38, 609–616.
Permeability of the urban matrix to arboreal gliding mammals: Sugar Gliders in Melbourne, Australia.CrossRef |

Christensen, J. H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, I., Jones, R., Kolli, R. K., Kwon, W.-T., Laprise, R., Magaña Rueda, V., Mearns, L., Menéndez, C. G., Räisänen, J., Rinke, A., Sarr, A., and Whetton, P. (2007) Regional climate projections. In ‘Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’. (Eds S. Solomon, M. D. Qin, Z. C. Manning, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller.) (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK)

Cleland, E. E., Chuine, I., Menzel, A., Mooney, H. A., and Schwartz, M. D. (2007). Shifting plant phenology in response to global change. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 22, 357–365.
Shifting plant phenology in response to global change.CrossRef |

Corney, S., Katzfey, J., and McGregor, J. (2010). Climate futures for Tasmania: climate modelling technical report. Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tas. Available at http://ecite.utas.edu.au/70235 [Verified 25 May 2015].

Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment (DPIPWE) (2010). Swift Parrot breeding season survey 2009/10. Available at http://dpipwe.tas.gov.au/Documents/Swift-Parrot-Breeding-Season-Survey-2009-10.pdf [Verified 22 March 2016].

Dutkowski, G. W., and Potts, B. M. (1999). Geographic patterns of genetic variation in Eucalyptus globulus ssp. globulus and a revised racial classification. Australian Journal of Botany 47, 237–263.
Geographic patterns of genetic variation in Eucalyptus globulus ssp. globulus and a revised racial classification.CrossRef |

Ekström, M., Grose, M. R., and Whetton, P. H. (2015). An appraisal of downscaling methods used in climate change research. WIREs. Climatic Change 6, 301–319.

Elith, J., Graham, C. H., Anderson, R. P., Dudík, M., Ferrier, S., Guisan, A., Hijmans, R. J., Huettmann, F., Leathwick, J. R., Lehmann, A., Li, J., Lohmann, L. G., Loiselle, B. A., Manion, G., Moritz, C., Nakamura, M., Nakazawa, Y., Overton, J., Mc, C. M., Townsend Peterson, A., Phillips, S. J., Richardson, K., Scachetti-Pereira, R., Schapire, R. E., Soberón, J., Williams, S., Wisz, M. S., and Zimmermann, N. E. (2006). Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29, 129–151.
Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data.CrossRef |

Elith, J., Kearney, M., and Phillips, S. (2010). The art of modelling range-shifting species. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 1, 330–342.
The art of modelling range-shifting species.CrossRef |

Fox-Hughes, P., Harris, R., Lee, G., Grose, M., and Bindoff, N. (2014). Future fire danger climatology for Tasmania, Australia, using a dynamically downscaled regional climate model. International Journal of Wildland Fire 23, 309–321.
Future fire danger climatology for Tasmania, Australia, using a dynamically downscaled regional climate model.CrossRef |

Giannini, T. C., Chapman, D. S., Saraiva, A. M., Alves-dos-Santos, I., and Biesmeijer, J. C. (2013). Improving species distribution models using biotic interactions: a case study of parasites, pollinators and plants. Ecography 36, 649–656.
Improving species distribution models using biotic interactions: a case study of parasites, pollinators and plants.CrossRef |

Gibbons, P., and Lindenmayer, D. (2002). ‘Tree Hollows and Wildlife Conservation in Australia.’ (CSIRO: Melbourne, Vic.)

Gould, S. F., Beeton, N. J., Harris, R. M. B., Hutchinson, M. F., Lechner, A. M., Porfirio, L. L., and Mackey, B. G. (2014). A tool for simulating and communicating uncertainty when modelling species distributions under future climates. Ecology and Evolution 4, 4798–4811.
A tool for simulating and communicating uncertainty when modelling species distributions under future climates.CrossRef | 25558370PubMed |

Hansen, M. C., Potapov, P. V., Moore, R., Hancher, M., Turubanova, S. A., Tyukavina, A., Thau, D., Stehman, S. V., Goetz, S. J., Loveland, T. R., Kommareddy, A., Egorov, A., Chini, L., Justice, C. O., and Townshend, J. R. G. (2013). High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change. Science 342, 850–853.
High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change.CrossRef | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3sXhslCrsrbO&md5=1bbc81e13a6baa6b443ba122f4ce2e1bCAS | 24233722PubMed |

Harris, R., Porfirio, L. L., Hugh, S., Lee, G., Bindoff, N. L., Mackey, B., and Beeton, N. J. (2013). To Be Or Not To Be? Variable selection can change the projected fate of a threatened species under future climate. Ecological Management & Restoration 14, 230–234.

Harris, R. M., Grose, M., Lee, G., Bindoff, N. L., Porfirio, L. L., and Fox-Hughes, P. (2014). Climate projections for ecologists. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 5, 621–637.
Climate projections for ecologists.CrossRef |

Heikkinen, R. K., Luoto, M., Virkkala, R., Pearson, R. G., and Korber, J. H. (2007). Biotic interactions improve prediction of boreal bird distributions at macro-scales. Global Ecology and Biogeography 16, 754–763.
Biotic interactions improve prediction of boreal bird distributions at macro-scales.CrossRef |

Heinsohn, R., Webb, M., Lacy, R., Terauds, A., Alderman, R., and Stojanovic, D. (2015). A severe predator-induced population decline predicted for endangered, migratory Swift Parrots (Lathamus discolor). Biological Conservation 186, 75–82.
A severe predator-induced population decline predicted for endangered, migratory Swift Parrots (Lathamus discolor).CrossRef |

Hof, A. R., Jansson, R., and Nilsson, C. (2012). How biotic interactions may alter future predictions of species distributions: future threats to the persistence of the arctic fox in Fennoscandia. Diversity & Distributions 18, 554–562.
How biotic interactions may alter future predictions of species distributions: future threats to the persistence of the arctic fox in Fennoscandia.CrossRef |

Irving, D. B., Perkins, S. E., Brown, J. R., Gupta, A. S., Moise, A. F., Murphy, B. F., Muir, L. C., Colman, R. A., Power, S. B., Delage, F. P., and Brown, J. N. (2011). Evaluating global climate models for the Pacific island region. Climate Research 49, 169–187.
Evaluating global climate models for the Pacific island region.CrossRef |

Jackson, S. T., Betancourt, J. L., Booth, R. K., and Gray, S. T. (2009). Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106, 19685–19692.
Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions.CrossRef | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3cXntFKmsLk%3D&md5=c0e901f875cceb0d6e1578a990c7347cCAS | 19805104PubMed |

Leathwick, J., and Austin, M. (2001). Competitive interactions between tree species in New Zealand’s old-growth indigenous forests. Ecology 82, 2560–2573.
Competitive interactions between tree species in New Zealand’s old-growth indigenous forests.CrossRef |

Lesslie, R. G., Hill, M. J., Hill, P., Cresswell, H. P., and Dawson, S. (2008). The application of a simple spatial multi-criteria analysis shell to natural resource management decision making. In ‘Landscape Analysis and Visualisation’. (Eds C. Pettit, W. Cartwright, I. Bishop, K. Lowell, D. Pullar, D. Duncan.) pp. 73–95. (Springer: Berlin, Heidelberg.)

Markovic, M., de Elía, R., Frigon, A., and Matthews, H. D. (2013). A transition from CMIP3 to CMIP5 for climate information providers: the case of surface temperature over eastern North America. Climatic Change 120, 197–210.
A transition from CMIP3 to CMIP5 for climate information providers: the case of surface temperature over eastern North America.CrossRef |

Mcgregor, J., and Dix, M. (2001). The CSIRO conformal–cubic atmospheric GCM. In ‘IUTAM Symposium on Advances in Mathematical Modelling of Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics’. (Ed. P. F. Hodnett) pp. 197–202. (Springer: Dordrecht, Netherlands). Available at http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-010-0792-4_25 [Verified 9 March 2016].

McKinney, A. M., CaraDonna, P. J., Inouye, D. W., Barr, B., Bertelsen, C. D., and Waser, N. M. (2012). Asynchronous changes in phenology of migrating Broad-tailed Hummingbirds and their early-season nectar resources. Ecology 93, 1987–1993.
Asynchronous changes in phenology of migrating Broad-tailed Hummingbirds and their early-season nectar resources.CrossRef | 23094369PubMed |

Meier, E., Edwards, T. C., Kienast, F., Dobbertin, M., and Zimmermann, N. E. (2011). Co-occurrence patterns of trees along macro-climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L. Journal of Biogeography 38, 371–382.
Co-occurrence patterns of trees along macro-climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.CrossRef |

Munks, S., Wapstra, M., Corkrey, R., Otley, H., Miller, G., and Walker, B. (2007). The occurrence of potential tree hollows in the dry eucalypt forests of south-eastern Tasmania, Australia. Australian Zoologist 34, 22–36.
The occurrence of potential tree hollows in the dry eucalypt forests of south-eastern Tasmania, Australia.CrossRef |

Nakicenovic, N., and Swart, R. (Eds) (2000). ‘Special report on emissions scenarios: a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’, 1st edn. (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK)

Peters, G. P., Andrew, R. M., Boden, T., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Le Quéré, C., Marland, G., Raupach, M. R., and Wilson, C. (2013). The challenge to keep global warming below 2°C. Nature Climate Change 3, 4–6.
The challenge to keep global warming below 2°C.CrossRef |

Phillips, S. J., and Dudík, M. (2008). Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31, 161–175.
Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation.CrossRef |

Porfirio, L. L., Carter, L., Hugh, S., and Mackey, B. (2014a). The Swift Parrot nesting-habitat MCAS-S datapack. National Environmental Research Program, Hobart, Tas. Available at https://cloudstor.aarnet.edu.au/plus/index.php/s/7ed8381ad59f8f9def9e877d6cf08b0e [Verified 21 March 2016].

Porfirio, L. L., Harris, R. M. B., Lefroy, E. C., Hugh, S., Gould, S. F., Lee, G., Bindoff, N. L., and Mackey, B. (2014b). Improving the use of species distribution models in conservation planning and management under climate change. PLoS One 9, e113749.
Improving the use of species distribution models in conservation planning and management under climate change.CrossRef | 25420020PubMed |

R Core Team (2011). R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. Available at http://www.R-project.org/ [Verified 21 March 2016].

Romo, H., and García-Barros, E. (2014). Effects of climate change on the distribution of ecologically interacting species: butterflies and their main food plants in Spain. Ecography 37, 1063–1072.

Root, T. L., Price, J. T., Hall, K. R., Schneider, S. H., Rosenzweig, C., and Pounds, J. A. (2003). Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421, 57–60.
Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants.CrossRef | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD3sXovVc%3D&md5=cbd0a3a59765bb32f9e37d30d3282620CAS | 12511952PubMed |

Saunders, D., and Tzaros, C. (2011). National recovery plan for the Swift parrot Lathamus discolor. Available at http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/c3e20a20-8122-4a9c-bd06-455ea7620380/files/lathamus-discolor-swift-parrot.pdf [Verified 31 March 2016].

Silva, D., Gonzalez, V., and Melo, G. (2014). Seeking the flowers for the bees: integrating biotic interactions into niche models to assess the distribution of the exotic bee species Lithurgus huberi in South America. Ecological Modelling 273, 200–209.
Seeking the flowers for the bees: integrating biotic interactions into niche models to assess the distribution of the exotic bee species Lithurgus huberi in South America.CrossRef |

Smith, I., and Chandler, E. (2010). Refining rainfall projections for the Murray Darling Basin of south-east Australia – the effect of sampling model results based on performance. Climatic Change 102, 377–393.
Refining rainfall projections for the Murray Darling Basin of south-east Australia – the effect of sampling model results based on performance.CrossRef |

Stojanovic, D., Webb, M., and Roshier, D. (2012). Ground-based survey methods both overestimate and underestimate the abundance of suitable tree-cavities for the endangered Swift Parrot. Emu 112, 350–356.
Ground-based survey methods both overestimate and underestimate the abundance of suitable tree-cavities for the endangered Swift Parrot.CrossRef |

Stojanovic, D., Webb, M. H., Alderman, R., Porfirio, L. L., and Heinsohn, R. (2014). Discovery of a novel predator reveals extreme but highly variable mortality for an endangered migratory bird. Diversity & Distributions 20, 1200–1207.
Discovery of a novel predator reveals extreme but highly variable mortality for an endangered migratory bird.CrossRef |

Stojanovic, D., Terauds, A., Westgate, M. J., Webb, M. H., Roshier, D. A., and Heinsohn, R. (2015). Exploiting the richest patch has a fitness pay-off for the migratory Swift Parrot. Journal of Animal Ecology 84, 1194–1201.
Exploiting the richest patch has a fitness pay-off for the migratory Swift Parrot.CrossRef | 25973857PubMed |

Suckling, G., and Macfarlane, M. (1983). Introduction of the Sugar Glider, Petaurus breviceps, into re-established forest of the Tower Hill State Game Reserve, Vic. Wildlife Research 10, 249–258.
Introduction of the Sugar Glider, Petaurus breviceps, into re-established forest of the Tower Hill State Game Reserve, Vic.CrossRef |

Thuiller, W., Richardson, D. M., Pysek, P., Midgley, G. F., Hughes, G. O., and Rouget, M. (2005). Niche-based modelling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale. Global Change Biology 11, 2234–2250.
Niche-based modelling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale.CrossRef |

Thuiller, W., Georges, D., and Engler, R. (2012). Package ‘biomod2’. Available at http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.252.7876&rep=rep1&type=pdf [Verified 25 May 2015].

Trainor, A., and Schmitz, O. (2014a). Enhancing species distribution modeling by characterizing predator-prey interactions. Ecological Applications 24, 204–216.
Enhancing species distribution modeling by characterizing predator-prey interactions.CrossRef | 24640545PubMed |

Trainor, A., and Schmitz, O. (2014b). Infusing considerations of trophic dependencies into species distribution modelling. Ecology Letters 17, 1507–1517.
Infusing considerations of trophic dependencies into species distribution modelling.CrossRef | 25250672PubMed |

Tylianakis, J., and Didham, R. (2008). Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems. Ecology Letters 11, 1351–1363.
Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems.CrossRef | 19062363PubMed |

Van der Putten, W. H., Macel, M., and Visser, M. E. (2010). Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences 365, 2025–2034.
Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels.CrossRef | 20513711PubMed |

VanDerWal, J., Murphy, H. T., Kutt, A. S., Perkins, G. C., Bateman, B. L., Perry, J. J., and Reside, A. E. (2012). Focus on poleward shifts in species’ distribution underestimates the fingerprint of climate change. Nature Climate Change 3, 239–243.
Focus on poleward shifts in species’ distribution underestimates the fingerprint of climate change.CrossRef |

Walther, G.-R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T. J. C., Fromentin, J.-M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., and Bairlein, F. (2002). Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416, 389–395.
Ecological responses to recent climate change.CrossRef | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD38XislantL8%3D&md5=7f3f5ec2942c39342b782ba1843fd6ffCAS | 11919621PubMed |

Webb, M., Holdsworth, M., and Webb, J. (2012). Nesting requirements of the endangered Swift Parrot (Lathamus discolor). Emu 112, 181–188.
Nesting requirements of the endangered Swift Parrot (Lathamus discolor).CrossRef |

Webb, M. H., Wotherspoon, S., Stojanovic, D., Heinsohn, R., Cunningham, R., Bell, P., and Terauds, A. (2014). Location matters: using spatially explicit occupancy models to predict the distribution of the highly mobile, endangered Swift Parrot. Biological Conservation 176, 99–108.
Location matters: using spatially explicit occupancy models to predict the distribution of the highly mobile, endangered Swift Parrot.CrossRef |

Wiens, J., Stralberg, D., Jongsomjit, D., Howell, C. A., and Snyder, M. A. (2009). Niches, models, and climate change: assessing the assumptions and uncertainties. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106, 19729–19736.
Niches, models, and climate change: assessing the assumptions and uncertainties.CrossRef | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3cXntFKktrY%3D&md5=dafb1b827f17c252c7b1be5bb2d312e4CAS | 19822750PubMed |

Williams, K., and Potts, B. (1996). The natural distribution of Eucalyptus species in Tasmania. Tasforests 8, 39–68.

Wisz, M., Pottier, J., and Kissling, W. (2013). The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling. Biological Reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 88, 15–30.
The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.CrossRef | 22686347PubMed |

Woodward, F. I. (1987). ‘Climate and Plant Distribution.’ (Cambridge University Press: New York.)

Xu, T., and Hutchinson, M. F. (2011) ANUCLIM Version 6.1. (Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University: Canberra.) Available at http://fennerschool.anu.edu.au/research/products/anuclim-vrsn-61 [Verified 31 March 2016].


Export Citation

View Altmetrics