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Florida wildfire activity and atmospheric teleconnections
Scott L.
Goodrick A C,
Deborah E.
Hanley B
A
USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, 320 Green St., Athens, GA 30602, USA.
B
Florida Division of Forestry, 3125 Conner Blvd, Tallahassee, FL 32399, USA.
C
Corresponding author. Email: sgoodrick@fs.fed.us
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International Journal of Wildland Fire 18(4) 476–482 http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF07034
Submitted: 14 February 2007
Accepted: 18 August 2008
Published online: 29 June 2009
Abstract
Since 1991, the Florida Division of Forestry has been making seasonal fire severity forecasts based on a relationship between area burned in Florida and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The present study extends the original analysis on which these forecasts are based and attempts to augment it with the addition of other patterns of climate variability. Two atmospheric teleconnection patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific–North American pattern, are examined as potential indicators of seasonal and monthly area burned in Florida. Although ENSO was the only climate index to show a significant correlation to area burned in Florida, the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA) is shown to be a factor influencing fire season severity although the relationship is not monotonic and therefore not revealed by correlation analysis.
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