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International Journal of Wildland Fire
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Article << Previous     |     Next >>   Contents Vol 18(8)

An approach to operational forest fire growth predictions for Canada

K. R. Anderson A C, P. Englefield A, J. M. Little A, Gerhard Reuter B

A Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, 5320-122 Street, Edmonton, AB, T6H 3S5, Canada.
B University of Alberta, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, 1-26 Earth Sciences Building, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2E3, Canada.
C Corresponding author. Email: kanderso@nrcan.gc.ca.
 
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Abstract

This paper presents an operational approach to predicting fire growth for wildland fires in Canada. The approach addresses data assimilation to provide predictions in a timely and efficient manner. Fuels and elevation grids, forecast weather, and active fire locations are entered into a fire-growth model; then predicted fire perimeters are mapped and presented on the web. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR) satellite-based detection systems are used to detect current wildland fires (referred to as hotspots). For selected regions, fire-growth simulation environments are assembled. Fuel type data from several fire management agencies are available in grid format at a resolution of 100 m or less; in areas where such data are not available, a national fuels map based on Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre Vegetation sensor (SPOT VGT) land cover and forest inventory is used. Similarly, terrain data are available from a variety of sources. Current hotspots are used as ignition points while past hotspots are used to delineate area burned. Surface wind, temperature, and dew-point values (forecast by Environment Canada) are used to determine the fire weather conditions at the fire location. A case study of two large fires in Canada consisting of 54 fire simulation days is used to test these hypotheses.

Keywords: fire detection, fire-growth modelling, Wood Buffalo National Park.


   
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