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Journal of the International Association of Wildland Fire
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Modelling static fire hazard in a semi-arid region using frequency analysis

Hamed Adab A , Kasturi Devi Kanniah B E , Karim Solaimani C and Roselina Sallehuddin D
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Science, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Khorasan Razavi 9617976487, Iran.

B Faculty of Geoinformation and Real Estate, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia.

C GIS Center, Sari Agriculture and Natural Resources University, Sari, Mazandaran 4817844718, Iran.

D Soft Computing Research Group, Faculty of Computer Science and Information System, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia.

E Corresponding author. Email: kasturi@utm.my

International Journal of Wildland Fire 24(6) 763-777 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF13113
Submitted: 16 July 2013  Accepted: 8 April 2015   Published: 15 June 2015

Abstract

Various fire hazard rating systems have been used by many countries at strategic and tactical levels for fire prevention and fire safety programs. Assigning subjective weight to parameters that cause fire hazard has been widely used to model wildland fire hazard. However, these methods are sensitive to experts’ judgements because they are independent of any statistical approaches. Therefore, in the present study, we propose a wildland fire hazard method based on frequency analysis (i.e. a probability distribution model) to identify the locations of fire hazard in north-eastern Iran, which has frequent fire. The proposed methodology uses factors that do not change or change very slowly over time to identify static fire hazard areas, such as vegetation moisture, slope, aspect, elevation, distance from roads and proximity to settlements, as essential parameters. Several probability distributions are assigned to each factor to show the possibility of fire using non-linear regressions. The results show that approximately 86% of MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) hot spot data are located truly in the high fire hazard areas as identified in the present study and the most significant contributing factor to fire in Golestan Province, Iran, is elevation. The present study also reveals that approximately 14% of the total study area (~20 368 km2) has a fire hazard of 66%, which can be considered very high. Therefore, this area – located mostly in the central, west and north-east regions of Golestan Province – should be considered for an effective conservation strategy of wildland fire.

Additional keywords: forest, probabilistic model, remote sensing.


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