Register      Login
International Journal of Wildland Fire International Journal of Wildland Fire Society
Journal of the International Association of Wildland Fire
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Modelling spatiotemporal variability in fires in semiarid savannas: a satellite-based assessment around Africa’s largest protected area

Niti B. Mishra A D , Kumar P. Mainali B and Kelley A. Crews C
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Geography and Earth Science, University of Wisconsin–La Crosse, WI 54601, USA.

B Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.

C Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA.

D Corresponding author. Email: nmishra@uwlax.edu

International Journal of Wildland Fire 25(7) 730-741 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF15152
Submitted: 16 August 2015  Accepted: 1 April 2016   Published: 11 May 2016

Abstract

The relative importance of various drivers of fire regimes in savanna ecosystems can be location-specific. We utilised satellite-derived time-series burned area (2001–13) to examine how spatiotemporal variations in burned area and fire frequency were determined by rainfall, vegetation morphology and land use in semiarid savanna. Mean precipitation of the rainy season (Nov–Apr) had a strong and positive relationship with burned area in the following dry season (variance explained 63%), with the relationship being strongest inside protected areas (variance explained 73%). Burned area and fire frequency were higher in vegetation types with higher herbaceous cover, indicating a causal link between herbaceous load and fire. Among land use, fire frequency was highest in protected areas and lowest in farms and ranches. Spatial models (generalised linear models with Poisson and negative binomial distribution) accounting for spatial autocorrelation showed that land-use classes and vegetation types together explained approximately half of the deviance in null model (48%). Existence of fences and boreholes resulted in finer-scale spatial differences in fire frequency. There was minimal dependence of vegetation types on land-use classes in determining fire frequency (interaction between the two predictors was minimal). These results have significant implications for understanding drivers of fire activity in savanna ecosystems.

Additional keywords: generalised liner model, Kalahari, MODIS.


References

Adeyewa ZD, Nakamura K (2003) Validation of TRMM radar rainfall data over major climatic regions in Africa. Journal of Applied Meteorology 42, 331–347.
Validation of TRMM radar rainfall data over major climatic regions in Africa.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Archibald S, Scholes R, Roy D, Roberts G, Boschetti L (2010) Southern African fire regimes as revealed by remote sensing. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19, 861–878.
Southern African fire regimes as revealed by remote sensing.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Bond WJ, Midgley GF, Woodward FI (2003) What controls South African vegetation – climate or fire? South African Journal of Botany 69, 79–91.
What controls South African vegetation – climate or fire?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Buitenwerf R, Bond W, Stevens N, Trollope W (2012) Increased tree densities in South African savannas: >50 years of data suggests CO2 as a driver. Global Change Biology 18, 675–684.
Increased tree densities in South African savannas: >50 years of data suggests CO2 as a driver.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Cary, G, Bradstock, RA, Gill, AM, Williams, RJ (2012) Global change and fire regimes in Australia. In ‘Flammable Australia: fire regimes, biodiversity and ecosystems in a changing world’. (Eds RA Bradstock, A Malcolm, AM Gill, RJ Williams) pp. 149–169. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne)

Chuvieco E, Giglio L, Justice C (2008) Global characterization of fire activity: toward defining fire regimes from Earth observation data. Global Change Biology 14, 1488–1502.
Global characterization of fire activity: toward defining fire regimes from Earth observation data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Cardozo FDS, Pereira G, Shimabukuro YE, Moraes, EC (2012) Validation of MODIS MCD45A1 Product to identify burned areas in Acre State-Amazon Forest. In ‘Proceedings of the IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS)’, 22–27 July 2012, Munich, Germany. pp. 6741–6744. (IEEE: Munich, Germany)10.1109/IGARSS.2012.6352558

Dale MR, Fortin M-J (2014) ‘Spatial analysis: a guide for ecologists.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK)

Department of Wildlife and National Parks (DWNP) 2003. Central Kalahari and Khutse Game Reserve Management Plan. Department of Wildlife and National Parks, Government of Botswana. (Gaborone, Botswana)

Department of Forestry and Range Resources (2011) Fire season preparedness. Division of Conservation and Management, Fire Management Section, Department of Ministry Management, Ministry of Environment, Wildlife and Tourism. (Gaborone, Botswana)

Dormann CF, McPherson JM, Araújo MB, Bivand R, Bolliger J, Carl G, Davies RG, Hirzel A, Jetz W, Kissling WD, Kühn I, Ohlemüller R, Peres-Neto PR, Reineking B, Schröder B, Schurr FM, Wilson R (2007) Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data: a review. Ecography 30, 609–628.
Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data: a review.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Dougill AJ, Thomas DSG, Heathwaite AL (1999) Environmental change in the Kalahari: integrated land degradation studies for non-equilibrium dryland environments. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 89, 420–442.
Environmental change in the Kalahari: integrated land degradation studies for non-equilibrium dryland environments.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Dube OP (2013) Challenges of wildland fire management in Botswana: towards a community-inclusive fire management approach. Weather and Climate Extremes 1, 26–41.
Challenges of wildland fire management in Botswana: towards a community-inclusive fire management approach.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Faramarzi M, Abbaspour KC, Vaghefi SA, Farzaneh MR, Zehnder AJ, Srinivasan R, Yang H (2013) Modeling impacts of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa. Journal of Hydrology 480, 85–101.
Modeling impacts of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Frost PGH, Robertson F (1987) Fire: the ecological effects of fire in savannas. In ‘Determinants of tropical savannas’. (Ed. BH Walker.) pp. 93–140. (IRL Press: Oxford, UK)

Gadd ME (2012) Barriers, the beef industry and unnatural selection: a review of the impact of veterinary fencing on mammals in southern Africa. In ‘Fencing for conservation’, pp. 153–186. (Springer: New York)

Giglio L, Loboda T, Roy DP, Quayle B, Justice CO (2009) An active fire-based burned area mapping algorithm for the MODIS sensor. Remote Sensing of Environment 113, 408–420.
An active fire-based burned area mapping algorithm for the MODIS sensor.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Gignoux J, Clobert J, Menaut J-C (1997) Alternative fire resistance strategies in savanna trees. Oecologia 110, 576–583.
Alternative fire resistance strategies in savanna trees.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Govender N, Trollope WS, Van Wilgen BW (2006) The effect of fire season, fire frequency, rainfall and management on fire intensity in savanna vegetation in South Africa. Journal of Applied Ecology 43, 748–758.
The effect of fire season, fire frequency, rainfall and management on fire intensity in savanna vegetation in South Africa.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hantson S, Lasslop G, Kloster S, Chuvieco E (2015) Anthropogenic effects on global mean fire size. International Journal of Wildland Fire 24, 589–596.
Anthropogenic effects on global mean fire size.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Higgins SI, Bond WJ, February EC, Bronn A, Euston-Brown DIW, Enslin B, Govender N, Rademan L, O’Regan S, Potgieter ALF, Scheiter S, Sowry R, Trollope L, Trollope WSW (2007) Effects of four decades of fire manipulation on woody vegetation structure in savanna. Ecology 88, 1119–1125.
Effects of four decades of fire manipulation on woody vegetation structure in savanna.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 17536398PubMed |

Hill MJ, Román MO, Schaaf CB (2012) Dynamics of vegetation indices in tropical and subtropical savannas defined by ecoregions and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover. Geocarto International 27, 153–191.
Dynamics of vegetation indices in tropical and subtropical savannas defined by ecoregions and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hill MJ, Zhou Q, Sun Q, Schaaf C, Southworth J, Mishra NB, Gibbes C, Bunting E, Brandt T, Crews K (2016) Dynamics of the relationship between NDVI and SWIR32 vegetation indices in southern Africa: implications for retrieval of fractional cover from MODIS data. International Journal of Remote Sensing 37, 1476–1503.
Dynamics of the relationship between NDVI and SWIR32 vegetation indices in southern Africa: implications for retrieval of fractional cover from MODIS data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Huntley BJ, Walker BH (2012) ‘Ecology of tropical savannas.’ (Springer Science & Business Media: Munich, Germany)

Hüttich C, Gessner U, Herold M, Strohbach BJ, Schmidt M, Keil M, Dech S (2009) On the suitability of MODIS time series metrics to map vegetation types in dry savanna ecosystems: a case study in the Kalahari of NE Namibia. Remote Sensing 1, 620–643.

Hüttich C, Herold M, Strohbach BJ, Dech S (2011) Integrating in-situ, Landsat, and MODIS data for mapping in southern African savannas: experiences of LCCS-based land-cover mapping in the Kalahari in Namibia. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 176, 531–547.
Integrating in-situ, Landsat, and MODIS data for mapping in southern African savannas: experiences of LCCS-based land-cover mapping in the Kalahari in Namibia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 20635199PubMed |

Kalabamu FT (2000) Land tenure and management reforms in east and southern Africa – the case of Botswana. Land Use Policy 17, 305–319.
Land tenure and management reforms in east and southern Africa – the case of Botswana.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Lehmann CE, Anderson TM, Sankaran M, Higgins SI, Archibald S, Hoffmann WA, Hanan NP, Williams RJ, Fensham RJ, Felfili J (2014) Savanna vegetation–fire–climate relationships differ among continents. Science 343, 548–552.
Savanna vegetation–fire–climate relationships differ among continents.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC2cXhtlaisrg%3D&md5=f7de4d45c91174050d7f41e51bdafe5bCAS | 24482480PubMed |

Levick SR, Asner GP, Smit IP (2012) Spatial patterns in the effects of fire on savanna vegetation three-dimensional structure. Ecological Applications 22, 2110–2121.
Spatial patterns in the effects of fire on savanna vegetation three-dimensional structure.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 23387113PubMed |

Makhabu SW, Marotsi B, Perkins J (2002) Vegetation gradients around artificial water points in the Central Kalahari Game Reserve of Botswana. African Journal of Ecology 40, 103–109.
Vegetation gradients around artificial water points in the Central Kalahari Game Reserve of Botswana.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Mendelsohn J, El Obeid S (2004) ‘Okavango River: the flow of a lifeline.’ (Struik: Johannesburg, South Africa)

Mishra NB (2014) Characterizing ecosystem structural and functional properties in the central Kalahari using multiscale remote sensing. PhD dissertation, University of Texas at Austin.

Mishra NB, Crews KA (2014) Mapping vegetation morphology types in a dry savanna ecosystem: integrating hierarchical object-based image analysis with Random Forest. International Journal of Remote Sensing 35, 1175–1198.
Mapping vegetation morphology types in a dry savanna ecosystem: integrating hierarchical object-based image analysis with Random Forest.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Mishra NB, Young KR (2014) Savannas and grasslands. In ‘Encyclopedia of natural resources: land.’ (Ed. Y Wang.) Vol. 1, pp. 403–412. (Taylor & Francis: Abingdon, UK)

Mishra NB, Crews KA, Miller JA, Meyer T (2015a) Mapping vegetation morphology types in southern Africa savanna using MODIS time-series metrics: a case study of central Kalahari, Botswana. Land (Basel) 4, 197–215.
Mapping vegetation morphology types in southern Africa savanna using MODIS time-series metrics: a case study of central Kalahari, Botswana.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Mishra NB, Crews KA, Neeti N, Meyer T, Young KR (2015b) MODIS derived vegetation greenness trends in African savanna: deconstructing and localizing the role of changing moisture availability, fire regime and anthropogenic impact. Remote Sensing of Environment 169, 192–204.
MODIS derived vegetation greenness trends in African savanna: deconstructing and localizing the role of changing moisture availability, fire regime and anthropogenic impact.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Murphy BP, Russell-Smith J (2010) Fire severity in a northern Australian savanna landscape: the importance of time since previous fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19, 46–51.
Fire severity in a northern Australian savanna landscape: the importance of time since previous fire.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Nano CE, Clarke P, Pavey CR (2012) Fire regimes in arid hummock grasslands and acacia shrublands. In ‘Flammable Australia: fire regimes, biodiversity and ecosystems in a changing world’.(Eds RA Bradstock, AM Gill and RJ Williams.) pp. 195–214. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne)

NASA (2008) Huge bushfire in the Kalahari. Available at http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=35403 [Verified 10 September 2015]

O’Connor TG, Mulqueeny CM, Goodman PS (2011) Determinants of spatial variation in fire return period in a semiarid African savanna. International Journal of Wildland Fire 20, 540–549.
Determinants of spatial variation in fire return period in a semiarid African savanna.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Oliva P, Martín P, Chuvieco E (2011) Burned area mapping with MERIS post-fire image. International Journal of Remote Sensing 32, 4175–4201.
Burned area mapping with MERIS post-fire image.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Oliveira SLJ, Turkman MAA, Pereira JMC (2013) An analysis of fire frequency in tropical savannas of northern Australia, using a satellite-based fire atlas. International Journal of Wildland Fire 22, 479–492.
An analysis of fire frequency in tropical savannas of northern Australia, using a satellite-based fire atlas.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Padilla M, Stehman SV, Ramo R, Corti D, Hantson S, Oliva P, Alonso-Canas I, Bradley AV, Tansey K, Mota B (2015) Comparing the accuracies of remote sensing global burned area products using stratified random sampling and estimation. Remote Sensing of Environment 160, 114–121.
Comparing the accuracies of remote sensing global burned area products using stratified random sampling and estimation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Parry DC, Campbell B (1990) Wildlife management areas of Botswana. Botswana Notes and Records 22, 65–77.

Price OF, Pausas JG, Govender N, Flannigan M, Fernandes PM, Brooks ML, Bird RB (2015) Global patterns in fire leverage: the response of annual area burnt to previous fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire 24, 297–306.
Global patterns in fire leverage: the response of annual area burnt to previous fire.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Pyke DA, Brooks ML, D’Antonio C (2010) Fire as a restoration tool: a decision framework for predicting the control or enhancement of plants using fire. Restoration Ecology 18, 274–284.
Fire as a restoration tool: a decision framework for predicting the control or enhancement of plants using fire.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Raven PH, Evert RF, Eichhorn SE (2005) ‘Biology of plants.’ (Macmillan: New York, NY)

Romero-Ruiz M, Etter A, Sarmiento A, Tansey K (2010) Spatial and temporal variability of fires in relation to ecosystems, land tenure and rainfall in savannas of northern South America. Global Change Biology 16, 2013–2023.

Roy DP, Boschetti L, Justice CO, Ju J (2008) The collection 5 MODIS burned area product – Global evaluation by comparison with the MODIS active fire product. Remote Sensing of Environment 112, 3690–3707.
The collection 5 MODIS burned area product – Global evaluation by comparison with the MODIS active fire product.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Roy DP, Boschetti L, Giglio L (2011) Remote sensing of global savanna fire occurrence, extent and properties. In ‘Ecosystem function in savannas: measurement and modeling at landscape to global scales’. (Eds MJ Hill, NP Hanan) pp. 239–254. (CRC Press: Boca Raton, FL)

Scholes RJ, Archer SR (1997) Tree–grass interactions in savannas. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 28, 517–544.
Tree–grass interactions in savannas.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Scholes RJ, Dowty PR, Caylor K, Parsons DAB, Frost PGH, Shugart HH (2002) Trends in savanna structure and composition along an aridity gradient in the Kalahari. Journal of Vegetation Science 13, 419–428.
Trends in savanna structure and composition along an aridity gradient in the Kalahari.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Solomon SD, Qin M, Manning Z, Chen M, Marquis KB, Averyt M, Tignor HL (Eds) (2007) ‘Climate change: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK)

Tansey K, Grégoire JM, Defourny P, Leigh R, Pekel JF, Van Bogaert E, Bartholomé E (2008) A new, global, multi‐annual (2000–2007) burnt area product at 1-km resolution. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L01401
A new, global, multi‐annual (2000–2007) burnt area product at 1-km resolution.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Thomas DSG, Shaw PA (1991) ‘The Kalahari environment.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK)

Thomas DSG, Twyman C (2004) Good or bad rangeland? Hybrid knowledge, science, and local understandings of vegetation dynamics in the Kalahari. Land Degradation & Development 15, 215–231.
Good or bad rangeland? Hybrid knowledge, science, and local understandings of vegetation dynamics in the Kalahari.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Thonicke K, Venevsky S, Sitch S, Cramer W (2001) The role of fire disturbance for global vegetation dynamics: coupling fire into a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Global Ecology and Biogeography 10, 661–677.
The role of fire disturbance for global vegetation dynamics: coupling fire into a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Tsela P, Wessels K, Botai J, Archibald S, Swanepoel D, Steenkamp K, Frost P (2014) Validation of the two standard MODIS satellite burned-area products and an empirically derived merged product in South Africa. Remote Sensing 6, 1275–1293.
Validation of the two standard MODIS satellite burned-area products and an empirically derived merged product in South Africa.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Turner D, Ostendorf B, Lewis M (2008) An introduction to patterns of fire in arid and semi-arid Australia, 1998–2004. The Rangeland Journal 30, 95–107.
An introduction to patterns of fire in arid and semi-arid Australia, 1998–2004.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Twyman C (2000) Livelihood opportunity and diversity in Kalahari Wildlife Management Areas, Botswana: rethinking community resource management. Journal of Southern African Studies 26, 783–806.
Livelihood opportunity and diversity in Kalahari Wildlife Management Areas, Botswana: rethinking community resource management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Van Langevelde F, Van De Vijver C, Kumar L, Van De Koppel J, de Ridder N, Van Andel J, Skidmore AK, Hearne JW, Stroosnijder L, Bond WJ, Prins HHT, Rietkerk M (2003) Effects of fire and herbivory on the stability of savanna ecosystems. Ecology 84, 337–350.
Effects of fire and herbivory on the stability of savanna ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Williams J, Hyde A (2009) The mega-fire phenomenon: observations from a coarse-scale assessment with implications for foresters, land managers, and policymakers. In ‘Proceedings from the Society of American Foresters 89th National Convention’, 30 September–4 October 2009, Orlando, FL. (Society of American Foresters: Bethesda, MD)

Williams J, Albright D, Hoffmann AA, Eritsov A, Moore P, Mendes de Morais J, Leonard M, San Miguel-Ayanz J, Xanthopoulos G, Van Lierop P (2011) Findings and implications from a coarse-scale assessment of recent selected mega-fires. In ‘5th International Wildland Fire Conference’, 9–13 May 2011, Sun City, South Africa. Available at http://www.eenews.net/assets/2011/05/12/document_cw_01.pdf [Verified 14 April 2016]

Williamson D, Williamson J (1984) Botswana’s fences and the depletion of Kalahari wildlife. Oryx 18, 218–222.
Botswana’s fences and the depletion of Kalahari wildlife.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Yates CP, Russell-Smith J, Murphy BP, Desailly M, Evans J, Legge S, Lewis F, Lynch D, Edwards AC (2015) Fuel accumulation, consumption and fire patchiness in the lower rainfall savanna region. In ‘Carbon accounting and savanna fire management’. (Eds B Murphy, A Edwards, M Meyer, J Russell-Smith) pp. 115–132. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne, Australia)