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Article << Previous     |     Next >>   Contents Vol 58(10)

Simulation of the estimation of ageing bias inside an integrated assessment of canary rockfish using age estimates from a bomb radiocarbon study

Ian J. Stewart A C, Kevin R. Piner B

A NOAA Fisheries, NWFSC 2725 Montlake Blvd East, Seattle, WA 98112, USA.
B NOAA Fisheries, SWFSC 8604 La Jolla Shores Drive, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA.
C Corresponding author. Email: Ian.Stewart@noaa.gov
 
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Abstract

The stock of canary rockfish off the west coast of the continental US is currently assessed using an integrated statistical catch-at-age model. The functional form of an ageing bias detected in production ageing (large numbers of ages read for use in stock assessment) from a bomb radiocarbon study with small sample size (n = 16) was estimated externally and used to adjust the age data in the most recent stock assessment. Using simulation methods, the present study evaluated whether integrating the estimation of the ageing bias inside the assessment model would (1) influence the uncertainty in assessment results and (2) improve our ability to differentiate between competing functional forms (linear, linear with intercept and jointed) for specifying the ageing bias. Internal estimation of the ageing bias relationship increased the approximate 95% confidence interval width about the spawning biomass estimate by 1–10% depending on the functional form assumed. The assessment model was not able to reliably distinguish between all competing functional forms of the ageing bias tested, even with increased radiocarbon sample sizes. However, significant under-ageing at the youngest ages was found to be inconsistent with other sources of data in the assessment model. The question of ageing bias form remains important because it had moderate effects on estimates of spawning biomass and assessment model uncertainty.

Keywords: ageing bias, bomb radiocarbon, simulation, stock assessment.


   
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