Caladenia orientalis (G.W.Carr) Hopper & A.P.Br. is a critically endangered orchid. The largest known populations are confined to fire-managed coastal heathland in southern Victoria. Trends in population dynamics at two closely occurring sites were evaluated against time since fire and rainfall, between 2000 and 2008, to provide ecological and biological information relevant to population management. At both sites, decreased plant size was inversely correlated with time since fire and the number of non-reproductive plants was positively correlated with time since fire. Rates of flowering were inversely correlated with time since fire at only one site (Population 2). The vegetation at this site rapidly accumulated after fire, whereas recovery was relatively slow at the other site. Rainfall was not correlated with rates of flowering or leaf width at either of the study sites, although there was a weak inverse relationship between rainfall and the number of non-reproductive plants at one site (Population 1). Rates of pollen transport and fruit set were within reported ranges for deceptive species. Fruiting plants were significantly smaller in the following year, whereas non-reproductive plants remained the same size. The results suggest that there may be costs associated with reproductive effort, and that hand-pollinating plants to boost seed production may lead to decreased plant size in the following year. Annual variation in rates of flowering may be influenced by previous reproductive effort. However, long-term population trends are better explained by competition from dominant shrubs, which become increasingly abundant with a lack of fire. Future management prescriptions should include site-specific fire regimes to maintain an open heathland.