Register      Login
Marine and Freshwater Research Marine and Freshwater Research Society
Advances in the aquatic sciences
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Implications of environmental trajectories for Limits of Acceptable Change: a case study of the Riverland Ramsar site, South Australia

Peter R. Newall A B F , Lance N. Lloyd A C , Peter A. Gell A and Keith F. Walker D E
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Faculty of Science and Technology, Federation University Australia, Ballarat, Vic. 3350, Australia.

B Independent Ecological Consulting, Williamstown, Vic. 3016, Australia.

C Lloyd Environmental Pty Ltd, Syndal, Vic. 3149, Australia.

D School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia.

E School of Veterinary and Life Sciences, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia.

F Corresponding author. Email: peter@indi-eco.com.au

Marine and Freshwater Research 67(6) 738-747 https://doi.org/10.1071/MF14187
Submitted: 1 July 2014  Accepted: 11 December 2014   Published: 31 August 2015

Abstract

The Riverland Ramsar site in south-eastern Australia has Limits of Acceptable Change (LAC) derived on the basis of hydrological regimes and vegetation requirements. This study evaluated LAC for the site against trajectories of environmental change including increasing river regulation and changing climate. The study identified a high likelihood of exceedances of the LAC from changed hydrologic regime and also from changing climate, with the combined influences increasing the likelihood of breaches. Regional climatic variations in the past call into question the concept of baseline conditions for this site and elsewhere, and suggest that management plans based on ecological variation around a point in time will be insufficient. Vulnerability assessment, adaptation enhancement, and regular reviews of site condition and regional significance are suggested components for future management of Ramsar sites.

Additional keywords: wetlands, climate change, baseline, River Murray.


References

BOM (2014). Bureau of Meteorology, website. Available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_024016.shtml [accessed 26 May 2015].

Cale, B. (2009). Literature review of the current and historic flooding regime and required hydrological regime of ecological assets on the Chowilla Floodplain. Report for South Australian Murray–Darling Basin Natural Resources Management Board, Murray Bridge, South Australia.

Christensen, J. H., Krishna Kumar, K., Aldrian, E., An, S.-I., Cavalcanti, I. F. A., de Castro, M., Dong, W., Goswami, P., Hall, A., Kanyanga, J. K., Kitoh, A., Kossin, J., Lau, N.-C., Renwick, J., Stephenson, D. B., Xie, S.-P., and Zhou, T. (2013). Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. In ‘Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’. (Eds T. F.Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley.) pp. 1217–1308. (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge and New York.)

Close, A. (1996). A new daily model of flow and solute transport in the River Murray. In ‘Proceedings of the 23rd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Hobart, Australia, 21–24 May‘. pp. 173–178.

CSIRO (2008). Water availability in the Murray. A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Murray–Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project. CSIRO, Australia.

de Sherbinin, A., Lacko, A., and Jaiteh, M. (2012). Evaluating the risk to Ramsar sites from climate change induced sea level rise. Ramsar Scientific and Technical Briefing Note No. 5. Ramsar Convention Secretariat, Gland, Switzerland.

DEH (2002). The South Australian River Murray floodplain vegetation and fauna survey (Oct–Nov 2002). Department for Environment and Heritage, South Australia.

DEWHA (2008). National framework and guidance for describing the ecological character of Australia’s Ramsar wetlands. Module 2 of the National Guidelines for Ramsar Wetlands – Implementing the Ramsar Convention in Australia. Australian Government Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts, Canberra.

Finlayson, C. M. (2013). Climate change and the wise use of wetlands: information from Australian wetlands. Hydrobiologia 708, 145–152.
Climate change and the wise use of wetlands: information from Australian wetlands.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3sXls1eis7c%3D&md5=e3122947d2e1449000b709f9d30c1afbCAS |

Gell, P., Mills, K., and Grundell, R. (2013). The legacy of climate and catchment change: the real challenge for wetland management. Hydrobiologia 708, 133–144.
The legacy of climate and catchment change: the real challenge for wetland management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

George, A. K., Walker, K. F., and Lewis, M. M. (2005). Population status of eucalypt trees on the River Murray floodplain, South Australia. River Research and Applications 21, 271–282.
Population status of eucalypt trees on the River Murray floodplain, South Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Gitay, H., Finlayson, C. M., and Davidson, N. C. 2011. A framework for assessing the vulnerability of wetlands to climate change. Ramsar Technical Report No. 5/CBD Technical Series No. 57. Ramsar Convention Secretariat, Gland, Switzerland & Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal, Canada. Available at: http://www.ramsar.org/sites/default/files/documents/pdf/lib/lib_rtr05.pdf [accessed 26 May 2015].

Holland, K. L., Tyerman, S. D., Mensforth, L. J., and Walker, G. R. (2006). Tree water sources over shallow, saline groundwater in the lower River Murray, south-eastern Australia: implications for groundwater recharge mechanisms. Australian Journal of Botany 54, 193–205.
Tree water sources over shallow, saline groundwater in the lower River Murray, south-eastern Australia: implications for groundwater recharge mechanisms.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Jones, R. N., McMahon, T. A., and Bowler, J. M. (2001). Modelling historical lake levels and recent climate change at three closed lakes, western Victoria, Australia (c. 1840–1990). Journal of Hydrology 246, 159–180.
Modelling historical lake levels and recent climate change at three closed lakes, western Victoria, Australia (c. 1840–1990).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Jones, G., Hillman, T., Kingsford, R., McMahon, T., Walker, K., Arthington, A., Whittington, J., and Cartwright, S. (2002). Independent Report of the Expert Reference Panel on Environmental Flows and Water Quality Requirements for the River Murray System. CRCFE, Canberra.

Margules & Partners, Smith, P., Smith, J., and Department of Conservation, Forests and Lands Victoria (1990). Riparian vegetation of the River Murray. Murray-Darling Basin Commission, Canberra.

MDBA (2010). Guide to the proposed Basin Plan: Technical background. Murray–Darling Basin Authority, Canberra.

MDBA (2012a). Basin Plan. The Murray–Darling Basin Authority has prepared this Basin Plan for subparagraph 44(2)(c)(ii) of the Water Act 2007. MDBA, Canberra.

MDBA (2012b). Assessment of environmental water requirements for the proposed Basin Plan: Riverland–Chowilla Floodplain. MDBA Publication No: 26/12. Licensed from the Murray–Darling Basin Authority, under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence.

MDBC (1991). Chowilla Resource Management Plan, Community Consultation Program. Prepared by the Murray–Darling Basin Commission’s Chowilla Working Group in consultation with the Chowilla Reference Group. Murray–Darling Basin Commission, Canberra.

MDBC (2002). Setting up of MSM-BIGMOD modelling suite for the River Murray system. Murray–Darling Basin Commission Technical Report 2002/5.

MDBC (2004). ‘The Cap.’ Brochure published by the Murray Darling Basin Commission, Canberra. Available at http://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/cap/cap_brochure.pdf [accessed 10 August 2015].

Mills, K., Gell, P., Gergis, J., Baker, P., Finlayson, M., Hesse, P., Jones, R., Kershaw, P., Pearson, S., Treble, P., Barr, C., Brookhouse, M., Drysdale, R., McDonald, J., Haberle, S., Reid, M., Thoms, M., and Tibby, J. (2013). Paleoclimate studies and natural-resource management in the Murray–Darling Basin II. Unravelling human impacts and climate variability. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences 60, 561–571.
Paleoclimate studies and natural-resource management in the Murray–Darling Basin II. Unravelling human impacts and climate variability.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Milly, P. C. D., Betancourt, J., Falkenmark, M., Hirsh, R. M., Kundewicz, Z. W., Letenmaier, D. P., and Stouffer, R. J. (2008). Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319, 573–574.
Stationarity is dead: whither water management?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD1cXhvVamtLY%3D&md5=8a6a882d5fd9a19bf062fb940d846d03CAS |

Newall, P. R., Lloyd, L. N., Gell, P. A., and Walker, K. F. (2009). Ecological character description for the Riverland Ramsar site. Lloyd Environmental Pty Ltd Report (Project No: LE0739) to Department for Environment and Heritage, South Australia. April 2009.

O’Malley, C. (1990). Floodplain vegetation. In ‘Chowilla Floodplain Biological Study’. (Eds C. O’Malley and F. Sheldon.) pp. 7–53. (Nature Conservation Society of South Australia: Adelaide.)

Ogden, J. (1978). On the dendrochronological potential of Australian trees. Australian Journal of Ecology 3, 339–356.
On the dendrochronological potential of Australian trees.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Overton, I. C., and Jolly, I. D. (2004). Integrated studies of floodplain vegetation health, saline groundwater and flooding on the Chowilla Floodplain South Australia. CSIRO Land and Water Technical Report 20/04.

Overton, I. C., McEwan, K., and Sherrah, J. R. (2006a). The River Murray. Floodplain inundation model – Hume Dam to lower lakes. CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Technical Report 2006. CSIRO: Canberra.

Overton, I. C., Jolly, I. D., Slavich, P. G., Lewis, M. M., and Walker, G. R. (2006b). Modelling vegetation health from the interaction of saline groundwater and flooding on the Chowilla floodplain, South Australia. Australian Journal of Botany 54, 207–220.
Modelling vegetation health from the interaction of saline groundwater and flooding on the Chowilla floodplain, South Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Pittock, J., and Finlayson, C. M. (2013). Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin: freshwater ecosystem conservation options in an era of climate change. Marine and Freshwater Research 62, 232–243.
Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin: freshwater ecosystem conservation options in an era of climate change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Potter, N. J., Chiew, F. H. S., and Frost, A. J. (2010). An assessment of the severity of recent reductions in rainfall and runoff in the Murray–Darling Basin. Journal of Hydrology 381, 52–64.
An assessment of the severity of recent reductions in rainfall and runoff in the Murray–Darling Basin.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Ramsar Convention (1996). Resolution VI.1: Working definitions of ecological character, guidelines for describing and maintaining the ecological character of listed sites, and guidelines for operation of the Montreux Record. 6th Meeting of the Conference of the Contracting Parties, Brisbane, Australia, 19–27 March 1996.

Ramsar Convention (1999). COP7 DOC 4, Annex. Agenda item VIII: Report of the Scientific and Technical Review Panel (STRP). Available at: https://www.google.com.au/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=Z0HIVeD3EbHu8we9lLqgAw& gws_ rd=ssl#q=CoP7+Doc4+Annex+(1999)+Report+of+the+Scientific+and+Technical+Review+Panel+(STRP) [accessed 10 August 2015].

Ramsar Convention (2013). Ramsar COP11 DOC. 24, Limits of Acceptable Change. Information paper prepared by the Scientific and Technical Review Panel at the 11th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties, Bucharest, Romania, July 2012. Available at: http://www.ramsar.org/sites/default/files/documents/pdf/cop11/doc/cop11-doc24-e-limits.pdf [accessed 26 May 2015].

Ramsar Convention Secretariat (2013). ‘The Ramsar Convention Manual: a Guide to the Convention on Wetlands (Ramsar, Iran, 1971).’ 6th edn. (Ramsar Convention Secretariat: Gland, Switzerland.)

Roberts, J., and Marston, F. (2000). Water regime of wetland and floodplain plants in the Murray–Darling Basin – a source book of ecological knowledge. CSIRO Land & Water Technical Report 30/00.

Roberts, J., and Marston, F. (2011). Water regime for wetland and floodplain plants: a source book for the Murray–Darling Basin, National Water Commission, Canberra.

Sharley, T., and Huggan, C. (1995). Chowilla Resource Management Plan – Final Report. Murray–Darling Basin Commission, Australian Capital Territory.

Strahler, A. H., and Strahler, A. N. (1992). ‘Modern Physical Geography.’ 4th edn. (John Wiley and Sons: New York.)

Warner, R. (2009). Secular regime shifts, global warming and Sydney’s water supply. Geographical Research 47, 227–241.
Secular regime shifts, global warming and Sydney’s water supply.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |