Theoretical fire-interval distributions

Abstract

Models for fire interval distributions in ecological communities are proposed, based on an understanding of the processes that influence the probability of fire, especially changes to the amount and condition of the fuel. The models represent changes in the probability of fire as a function of time since last fire. Despite considerable differences in the probability distributions of fire intervals, the models generate very similar age distributions when the mean fire interval is the same. Therefore, fitting the theoretical distributions to observed landscape age structure is unlikely to allow discrimination between different models. Previously, the most commonly used models of fire intervals have been based on the Weibull probability distribution. We believe that this is unnecessarily restrictive, and a broader range of models should be considered. The models may be based on an a priori understanding of the ecosystem being studied. They should assist interpretation of observed or inferred fire interval distributions.