Register      Login
International Journal of Wildland Fire International Journal of Wildland Fire Society
Journal of the International Association of Wildland Fire
RESEARCH ARTICLE

The role of weather, past fire and topography in crown fire occurrence in eastern Australia

Michael Storey A , Owen Price A C and Elizabeth Tasker B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia.

B Science Division, New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage, 43 Bridge Street, Hurstville, NSW 2220, Australia.

C Corresponding author. Email: oprice@uow.edu.au

International Journal of Wildland Fire 25(10) 1048-1060 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF15171
Submitted: 18 September 2015  Accepted: 21 June 2016   Published: 21 September 2016

Abstract

We analysed the influence of weather, time since fire (TSF) and topography on the occurrence of crown fire, as mapped from satellite imagery, in 23 of the largest wildfires in dry sclerophyll forests in eastern Australia from 2002 to 2013. Fires were analysed both individually and as groups. Fire weather was the most important predictor of crown consumption. TSF (a surrogate for fuel accumulation) had complex nonlinear effects that varied among fires. Crown fire likelihood was low up to 4 years post-fire, peaked at ~10 years post-fire and then declined. There was no clear indication that recent burning became more or less effective as fire weather became more severe. Steeper slope reduced crown fire likelihood, contrary to the assumptions of common fire behaviour equations. More exposed areas (ridges and plains) had higher crown fire likelihood. Our results suggest prescribed burning to maintain an average of 10 years’ TSF may actually increase crown fire likelihood, but burning much more frequently can be effective for risk reduction. Our results also suggest the effects of weather, TSF and slope are not adequately represented in the underlying equations of most fire behaviour models, potentially leading to poor prediction of fire spread and risk.

Additional keywords: fire management, fire severity, fuel accumulation, prescribed burning, wildfire.


References

Alvarez A, Gracia M, Castellnou M, Retana J (2013) Variables that influence changes in fire severity and their relationship with changes between surface and crown fires in a wind-driven wildfire. Forest Science 59, 139–150.
Variables that influence changes in fire severity and their relationship with changes between surface and crown fires in a wind-driven wildfire.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Arienti MC, Cumming SG, Boutin S (2006) Empirical models of forest fire initial attack success probabilities: the effects of fuels, anthropogenic linear features, fire weather, and management. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36, 3155–3166.
Empirical models of forest fire initial attack success probabilities: the effects of fuels, anthropogenic linear features, fire weather, and management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Barrett TW (2006) Modelling burn severity for the 2003 NSW/ACT wildfires using landsat imagery. In ‘Bushfire conference 2006: life in a fire-prone environment: translating science into practice’, 6–9 June 2006, Brisbane, Qld. (South East Queensland Fire and Biodiversity Consortium: Brisbane, Qld)

Bessie WC, Johnson EA (1995) The relative importance of fuels and weather on fire behavior in sub-alpine forests. Ecology 76, 747–762.
The relative importance of fuels and weather on fire behavior in sub-alpine forests.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Boer MM, Macfarlane C, Norris J, Sadler RJ, Wallace J, Grierson PF (2008) Mapping burned areas and burn severity patterns in SW Australian eucalypt forest using remotely-sensed changes in leaf area index. Remote Sensing of Environment 112, 4358–4369.
Mapping burned areas and burn severity patterns in SW Australian eucalypt forest using remotely-sensed changes in leaf area index.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Bradstock RA, Kenny BJ (2003) An application of plant functional types to fire management in a conservation reserve in southeastern Australia. Journal of Vegetation Science 14, 345–354.
An application of plant functional types to fire management in a conservation reserve in southeastern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Bradstock RA, Hammill KA, Collins L, Price O (2010) Effects of weather, fuel and terrain on fire severity in topographically diverse landscapes of south-eastern Australia. Landscape Ecology 25, 607–619.
Effects of weather, fuel and terrain on fire severity in topographically diverse landscapes of south-eastern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) ‘Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach.’ (Springer-Verlag: New York)

Burrows N, McCaw L (2013) Prescribed burning in southwestern Australia. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 11, e25–e34.
Prescribed burning in southwestern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Caccamo G, Chisholm LA, Bradstock RA, Puotinen ML (2012) Using remotely-sensed fuel connectivity patterns as a tool for fire danger monitoring. Geophysical Research Letters 39, L01302
Using remotely-sensed fuel connectivity patterns as a tool for fire danger monitoring.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Cary GJ, Morrison DA (1995) Effects of fire frequency on plant species composition of sandstone communities in the Sydney region: combinations of inter-fire intervals. Australian Journal of Ecology 20, 418–426.
Effects of fire frequency on plant species composition of sandstone communities in the Sydney region: combinations of inter-fire intervals.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Chafer CJ (2008) A comparison of fire severity measures: an Australian example and implications for predicting major areas of soil erosion. Catena 74, 235–245.
A comparison of fire severity measures: an Australian example and implications for predicting major areas of soil erosion.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Clarke PJ, Knox KJE, Bradstock RA, Munoz-Robles C, Kumar L (2014) Vegetation, terrain and fire history shape the impact of extreme weather on fire severity and ecosystem response. Journal of Vegetation Science 25, 1033–1044.
Vegetation, terrain and fire history shape the impact of extreme weather on fire severity and ecosystem response.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Collins BM, Kelly M, van Wagtendonk JW, Stephens SL (2007) Spatial patterns of large natural fires in Sierra Nevada wilderness areas. Landscape Ecology 22, 545–557.
Spatial patterns of large natural fires in Sierra Nevada wilderness areas.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Collins L, Bradstock RA, Tasker EM, Whelan RJ (2012) Can gullies preserve complex forest structure in frequently burnt landscapes? Biological Conservation 153, 177–186.
Can gullies preserve complex forest structure in frequently burnt landscapes?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Collins L, Bradstock R, Penman T (2014) Can precipitation influence landscape controls on wildfire severity? A case study within temperate eucalypt forests of south-eastern Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 23, 9–20.
Can precipitation influence landscape controls on wildfire severity? A case study within temperate eucalypt forests of south-eastern Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Edwards AC, Maier SW, Hutley LB, Williams RJ, Russell-Smith J (2013) Spectral analysis of fire severity in north Australian tropical savannas. Remote Sensing of Environment 136, 56–65.
Spectral analysis of fire severity in north Australian tropical savannas.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

ESRI (2010) ‘ArcGIS Desktop: Version 10.’ (Environmental Systems Research Institute: Redlands, CA)

Giglio L, Descloitres J, Justice CO, Kaufman YJ (2003) An enhanced contextual fire detection algorithm for MODIS. Remote Sensing of Environment 87, 273–282.
An enhanced contextual fire detection algorithm for MODIS.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Gill AM, Christian KR, Moore PHR, Forrester RI (1987) Bushfire incidence, fire hazard and fuel reduction burning. Austral Ecology 12, 299–306.
Bushfire incidence, fire hazard and fuel reduction burning.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hammill KA, Bradstock RA (2006) Remote sensing of fire severity in the Blue Mountains: influence of vegetation type and inferring fire intensity. International Journal of Wildland Fire 15, 213–226.
Remote sensing of fire severity in the Blue Mountains: influence of vegetation type and inferring fire intensity.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hammill KA, Tasker E, Reid J (2010) Monitoring fire regimes and biodiversity in the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area, final report. Department of Environment Climate Change and Water. TAFA Project 5. (Sydney, NSW).

Horsey B, Watson P (2012) Bark fuel in New South Wales forests and grassy woodlands. Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfire. (Wollongong, NSW).

Keeley JE (2009) Fire intensity, fire severity and burn severity: a brief review and suggested usage. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 116–126.
Fire intensity, fire severity and burn severity: a brief review and suggested usage.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Keetch JJ, Byram GM (1968) A drought index for forest fire control. USDA Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, Research Paper SE38. (Asheville, NC).

Keith DA (2004) ‘Ocean Shores to Desert Dunes: the Native Vegetation of New South Wales and the ACT.’ (Department of Environment and Conservation: Hurstville, NSW)

Knox KJE, Clarke PJ (2012) Fire severity, feedback effects and resilience to alternative community states in forest assemblages. Forest Ecology and Management 265, 47–54.
Fire severity, feedback effects and resilience to alternative community states in forest assemblages.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Kumar L, Clarke P, Muñoz C, Knox K (2008) Mapping of fire severity and comparison of severity indices across vegetation types in Gibraltar Range National Park, Australia. Available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237514969 [Verified 13 July 2017]

Lecina-Diaz J, Alvarez A, Retana J (2014) Extreme fire severity patterns in topographic, convective and wind-driven historical wildfires of Mediterranean pine forests. Plos One 9, e85127
Extreme fire severity patterns in topographic, convective and wind-driven historical wildfires of Mediterranean pine forests.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 24465492PubMed |

Lindenmayer DB, Blanchard W, McBurney L, Blair D, Banks SC, Driscoll DA, Smith AL, Gill AM (2014) Complex responses of birds to landscape-level fire extent, fire severity and environmental drivers. Diversity and Distributions 20, 467–477.
Complex responses of birds to landscape-level fire extent, fire severity and environmental drivers.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Liyanage GS, Ooi MKJ (2015) Intra-population level variation in thresholds for physical dormancy-breaking temperature. Annals of Botany 116, 123–131.
Intra-population level variation in thresholds for physical dormancy-breaking temperature.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 25997432PubMed |

Lydersen JM, North MP, Collins BM (2014) Severity of an uncharacteristically large wildfire, the Rim Fire, in forests with relatively restored frequent fire regimes. Forest Ecology and Management 328, 326–334.
Severity of an uncharacteristically large wildfire, the Rim Fire, in forests with relatively restored frequent fire regimes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

McArthur AG (1967) Fire behaviour in eucalypt forests: Forestry and Timber Bureau Leaflet 107. Commonwealth of Australia. (Canberra, ACT).

McCaw WL, Gould JS, Cheney NP (2008) Existing fire behaviour models under-predict the rate of spread of summer fires in open jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest. Australian Forestry 71, 16–26.
Existing fire behaviour models under-predict the rate of spread of summer fires in open jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

McCaw L, Mills G, Sullivan A, Hurley R, Ellis P, Matthews S, Plucinski M, Pippen B, Boura J (2009) Fire behaviour investigation. Final Report. Bushfire CRC. (Melbourne, Vic.).

Morrison DA, Renwick JA (2000) Effects of variation in fire intensity on regeneration of co-occurring species of small trees in the Sydney region. Australian Journal of Botany 48, 71–79.
Effects of variation in fire intensity on regeneration of co-occurring species of small trees in the Sydney region.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Morrison DA, Cary GJ, Pengelly SM, Ross DG, Mullins BJ, Thomas CR, Anderson TS (1995) Effects of fire frequency on plant species composition of sandstone communities in the Sydney region: inter-fire interval and time-since-fire. Australian Journal of Ecology 20, 239–247.
Effects of fire frequency on plant species composition of sandstone communities in the Sydney region: inter-fire interval and time-since-fire.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Murphy BP, Russell-Smith J (2010) Fire severity in a northern Australian savanna landscape: the importance of time since previous fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19, 46–51.
Fire severity in a northern Australian savanna landscape: the importance of time since previous fire.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

NASA (2014) ‘Near real-time data: active fire data.’ Available at https://earthdata.nasa.gov/data/near-real-time-data/firms/active-fire-data [Verified 28 June 2016]

Noble IR, Bary GAV, Gill AM (1980) McArthur’s fire-danger meters expressed as equations. Australian Journal of Ecology 5, 201–203.
McArthur’s fire-danger meters expressed as equations.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

OEH (2015) ‘Fire Management Manual 2015–2016: Policy and Procedures for Fire Management.’ NSW Office of Environment and Heritage (Sydney, NSW)

Oliveras I, Gracia M, Moré G, Retana J (2009) Factors influencing the pattern of fire severities in a large wildfire under extreme meteorological conditions in the Mediterranean basin. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 755–764.
Factors influencing the pattern of fire severities in a large wildfire under extreme meteorological conditions in the Mediterranean basin.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Olson JS (1963) Energy storage and the balance of producers and decomposers in ecological systems. Ecology 44, 322–331.
Energy storage and the balance of producers and decomposers in ecological systems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Price OF, Bradstock RA (2011) Quantifying the influence of fuel age and weather on the annual extent of unplanned fires in the Sydney region of Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 20, 142–151.
Quantifying the influence of fuel age and weather on the annual extent of unplanned fires in the Sydney region of Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Price OF, Bradstock RA (2012) The efficacy of fuel treatment in mitigating property loss during wildfires: insights from analysis of the severity of the catastrophic fires in 2009 in Victoria, Australia. Journal of Environmental Management 113, 146–157.
The efficacy of fuel treatment in mitigating property loss during wildfires: insights from analysis of the severity of the catastrophic fires in 2009 in Victoria, Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 23025983PubMed |

Price OF, Bradstock RA (2013) Landscape scale influences of forest area and housing density on house loss in the 2009 Victorian bushfires. PLoS One 8, e73421
Landscape scale influences of forest area and housing density on house loss in the 2009 Victorian bushfires.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3sXhsVWht7rJ&md5=038c5ba62f48862044001ac823f7170dCAS |

Prichard SJ, Peterson DL, Jacobson K (2010) Fuel treatments reduce the severity of wildfire effects in dry mixed conifer forest, Washington, USA. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40, 1615–1626.
Fuel treatments reduce the severity of wildfire effects in dry mixed conifer forest, Washington, USA.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

R Core Team (2013) A language and environment for statistical computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna, Austria). Available at http://www.R-project.org/ [Verified 22 June 2016]

Safford HD, Schmidt DA, Carlson CH (2009) Effects of fuel treatments on fire severity in an area of wildland–urban interface, Angora Fire, Lake Tahoe Basin, California. Forest Ecology and Management 258, 773–787.
Effects of fuel treatments on fire severity in an area of wildland–urban interface, Angora Fire, Lake Tahoe Basin, California.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Sever L, Leach J, Bren L (2012) Remote sensing of post-fire vegetation recovery: a study using Landsat 5 TM imagery and NDVI in north-east Victoria. Journal of Spatial Science 57, 175–191.
Remote sensing of post-fire vegetation recovery: a study using Landsat 5 TM imagery and NDVI in north-east Victoria.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Tagil S, Jenness J (2008) GIS-based automated landform classification and topographic, landcover and geologic attributes of landforms around the Yazoren Polje, Turkey. Journal of Applied Sciences 8, 910–921.
GIS-based automated landform classification and topographic, landcover and geologic attributes of landforms around the Yazoren Polje, Turkey.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Taylor C, McCarthy MA, Lindenmayer DB (2014) Nonlinear effects of stand age on fire severity. Conservation Letters 7, 355–370.
Nonlinear effects of stand age on fire severity.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Tolhurst KG, McCarthy G (2016) Effect of prescribed burning on wildfire severity: a landscape-scale case study from the 2003 fires in Victoria. Australian Forestry 79, 1–14.
Effect of prescribed burning on wildfire severity: a landscape-scale case study from the 2003 fires in Victoria.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Tozer MG, Auld TD (2006) Soil heating and germination: investigations using leaf scorch on graminoids and experimental seed burial. International Journal of Wildland Fire 15, 509–516.
Soil heating and germination: investigations using leaf scorch on graminoids and experimental seed burial.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

van Wagtendonk JW, van Wagtendonk KA, Thode AE (2012) Factors associated with the severity of intersecting fires in Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Fire Ecology 8, 11–31.
Factors associated with the severity of intersecting fires in Yosemite National Park, California, USA.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Wallace JM, Hobbs PV (2006) In ‘Atmospheric Science: an Introductory Survey’. (Eds JM Wallace, PV Hobbs (Academic Press: San Diego, CA.)

Walz Y, Maier SW, Dech SW, Conrad C, Colditz RR (2007) Classification of burn severity using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS): a case study in the jarrah-marri forest of southwest Western Australia. Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences 112, G102002

Watson P, Penman S, Horsey B (2012) Bushfire fuels in NSW forests and grassy woodlands: fuels modelling project final report. Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfire. (Wollongong, NSW).

Weiss A (2001) Topographic position and landforms analysis. Poster presented at the ESRI User Conference. Available at http://www.jennessent.com/downloads/TPI-poster-TNC_18x22.pdf [Verified 30 June 2016]

Williams RJ, Wahren CH, Bradstock RA, Muller WJ (2006) Does alpine grazing reduce blazing? A landscape test of a widely-held hypothesis. Austral Ecology 31, 925–936.
Does alpine grazing reduce blazing? A landscape test of a widely-held hypothesis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Williamson GJ, Murphy BP, Bowman D (2014) Cattle grazing does not reduce fire severity in eucalypt forests and woodlands of the Australian Alps. Austral Ecology 39, 462–468.
Cattle grazing does not reduce fire severity in eucalypt forests and woodlands of the Australian Alps.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |