Register      Login
Wildlife Research Wildlife Research Society
Ecology, management and conservation in natural and modified habitats
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Risks in extrapolating habitat preferences over the geographical range of threatened taxa: a case study of the quokka (Setonix brachyurus) in the southern forests of Western Australia

Karlene Bain A B D , Adrian Wayne C and Roberta Bencini A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A School of Animal Biology (M092), The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia.

B Python Ecological Services, PO Box 168, Walpole, WA 6398, Australia.

C Department of Parks and Wildlife, Brain St, Manjimup WA 6258, Australia.

D Corresponding author. Email: draconis@wn.com.au

Wildlife Research 42(4) 334-342 https://doi.org/10.1071/WR14247
Submitted: 2 December 2014  Accepted: 8 July 2015   Published: 19 August 2015

Abstract

Context: Extrapolation of knowledge for threatened taxa between parts of their range that are disconnected and/or ecologically diverse can result in significant sources of error that undermine the effectiveness of conservation efforts.

Aims: We investigated the risks associated with extrapolation of ecological information across environmental gradients, using the quokka (Setonix brachyurus) as a case study. Information documented in the northern part of its range is currently used to manage this species across its range in south-western Australia. We examined the suitability of this approach by developing a habitat suitability model (HSM) for the quokka in the southernmost areas of its range and comparing this with existing knowledge for the species.

Methods: We surveyed 327 sites, representative of a range of ecotypes, for presence/absence of quokkas. Occupancy models were applied to select a subset of habitat variables that best predicted occupancy patterns.

Key results: Occupancy patterns were influenced by complex vegetation structure, low levels of woody debris and habitat patchiness. HSMs developed for quokkas in the north could not predict occupancy patterns in the south. Significant fragmentation of subpopulations was observed due to patchiness in the availability of suitable habitat.

Conclusions: The choice of predictor variables in HSMs that are not transferrable between regions could contribute to inappropriate management of habitat for quokkas and an increased risk of local extinctions. In addition, failure to consider processes that affect preferred habitat variables could contribute to the segregation of habitat patches and intervening distances that are too great for successful dispersal, immigration and recolonisation processes.

Implications: The extrapolation of HSMs between geographical areas can increase the risk of outcomes that are detrimental to the conservation of threatened species. Where such extrapolation is necessary, actions guided by the HSMs should be implemented in a management framework that can detect adverse effects, allow for inclusion of new ecological information and explicitly consider the limitations and assumptions of this approach. In addition, perceptions of habitat fragmentation need to include processes such as fire regimes and feral animals that affect the availability and connectivity of habitat and have the potential to adversely affect population viability.

Additional keywords: habitat occupancy, fragmentation, metapopulation, threatened species, vegetation structure, fire regime.


References

Acevedo, P., Ward, A. I., Real, R., and Smith, G. C. (2010). Assessing biogeographical relationships of ecologically related species using favourability functions: a case study on British deer. Diversity & Distributions 16, 515–528.
Assessing biogeographical relationships of ecologically related species using favourability functions: a case study on British deer.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Adams, P. J. (2014). Quantifying feral pig abundance and efficacy of control strategies in southwest WA. Unpublished report for Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre, Canberra.

Bain, K., Wayne, A., and Bencini, R. (2014). Overcoming the challenges of measuring the abundance of a cryptic macropod: is a qualitative approach good enough? Wildlife Research 41, 84–93.
Overcoming the challenges of measuring the abundance of a cryptic macropod: is a qualitative approach good enough?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Burbidge, A. A., Start, A. N., Morris, K. D., and Armstrong, R. (1995). ‘Western Shield-Bringing Back our Wildlife.’ (Department of Conservation and Land Management: Perth.)

Burnham, K. P., and Anderson, D. R. (2002). ‘Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: a Practical Information-Theoretic Approach,’ 2nd edn. (Springer: New York.)

Burnside, R., Bain, K., and Sawyer, M. (2012). Quantification of the impact of feral pigs (Sus scrofa) on the sunset frog (Spicospina flammacaerulea), Reedia (Reedia spathacea), Walpole burrowing crayfish (Engaewa walpolea) and quokka (Setonix brachyurus). South Coast Natural Resource Management, Albany.

Burrows, N., and Wardell-Johnson, G. (2003). Interactions of fire and plants in south-western Australia’s forested ecosystems: a review. In ‘Fire in South-Western Australian Ecosystems: Impacts and Management’. (Eds N. Burrows and I. Abbott.) pp. 225–268. (Backhuys: Leiden.)

Choquenot, D., McIlroy, J., and Korn, T. (1996). ‘Managing Vertebrate Pests: Feral Pigs.’ (Bureau of Resource Sciences, Australian Government Publishing Service: Canberra.)

Christensen, P. E. S., and Kimber, P. C. (1975). Effect of prescribed burning on the flora and fauna of south western Australian forests. Proceedings of the Ecological Society of Australia 9, 85–106.

Constible, J. M., Gregory, P. T., and Larsen, K. W. (2010). The pitfalls of extrapolation in conservation: movements and habitat use of a threatened toad are different in the boreal forest. Animal Conservation 13, 43–52.
The pitfalls of extrapolation in conservation: movements and habitat use of a threatened toad are different in the boreal forest.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

de Tores, P., Burbidge, A., Morris, K., and Friend, T. (2008). Setonix brachyurus. In ‘IUCN 2013. IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2013.2’. Available at http://www.iucnredlist.org

Department of Environment and Conservation (2013). ‘Quokka (Setonix brachyurus) Recovery Plan. Western Australian Wildlife Management Program No. 56’. (Department of Environment and Conservation: Western Australia.)

Environmental Systems Research Institute (2006). ArcGIS Desktop: Release 9.1. ESRI, Redlands, CA.

Gould, J. S., McCaw, W. L., Cheney, N. P., Ellis, P. F., and Matthews, S. (2007). Field guide – fuel assessment and fire behaviour prediction in dry eucalypt forest. Ensis-CSIRO, Canberra and Department of Environment and Conservation, Perth.

Guisan, A., and Zimmermann, N. E. (2000). Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling 135, 147–186.
Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Guisan, A., Broennimann, O., Engler, R., Vust, M., Yoccoz, N. G., Lehmann, A., and Zimmermann, N. E. (2006). Using niche-based models to improve the sampling of rare species. Conservation Biology 20, 501–511.
Using niche-based models to improve the sampling of rare species.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 16903111PubMed |

Hayward, M. W., de Tores, P. J., and Banks, P. B. (2005). Habitat use of the quokka Setonix brachyurus (Macropodidae: Marsupialia) in the northern jarrah forest of Australia. Journal of Mammalogy 86, 683–688.
Habitat use of the quokka Setonix brachyurus (Macropodidae: Marsupialia) in the northern jarrah forest of Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hayward, M. W., de Tores, P. J., Dillon, M. J., Fox, B. J., and Banks, P. B. (2005b). Using faecal pellet counts along transects to estimate quokka (Setonix brachyurus) population density. Wildlife Research 32, 503–507.
Using faecal pellet counts along transects to estimate quokka (Setonix brachyurus) population density.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hayward, M. W., de Tores, P. J., Dillon, M. J., and Banks, P. B. (2007). Predicting the occurrence of the quokka, Setonix brachyurus (Macropodidae: Marsupialia), in Western Australia’s northern jarrah forest. Wildlife Research 34, 194–199.
Predicting the occurrence of the quokka, Setonix brachyurus (Macropodidae: Marsupialia), in Western Australia’s northern jarrah forest.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Heinänen, S., Erola, J., and Von Numers, M. (2012). High resolution species distribution models of two nesting water bird species: a study of transferability and predictive performance. Landscape Ecology 27, 545–555.
High resolution species distribution models of two nesting water bird species: a study of transferability and predictive performance.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hone, J. (2002). Feral pigs in Namadgi National Park, Australia: dynamics, impacts and management. Biological Conservation 105, 231–242.
Feral pigs in Namadgi National Park, Australia: dynamics, impacts and management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hosmer, D. W., and Lemeshow, S. (2000). ‘Applied Logistic Regression.’ (John Wiley and Sons: New York.)

International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) (2013). ‘IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2013.2.’ Available at http://www.iucnredlist.org

Kile, G. (2013). Review of the Implementation of the Regional Forest Agreement for the South-West Forest Region of Western Australia for the Period 1999–2009. WA RFA Reviewer’s Report for the State Government, Perth.

Kitchener, D. J. (1981). Factors influencing selection of shelter by individual quokkas, Setonix brachyurus (Marsupialia), during hot summer days on Rottnest Island. Australian Journal of Zoology 29, 875–884.
Factors influencing selection of shelter by individual quokkas, Setonix brachyurus (Marsupialia), during hot summer days on Rottnest Island.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Lindenmayer, D. B., Cunningham, R. B., and McCarthy, M. A. (1999). The conservation of arboreal marsupials in the montane ash forests of the central highlands of Victoria, south-eastern Australia. VIII. Landscape analysis of the occurrence of arboreal marsupials. Biological Conservation 89, 83–92.
The conservation of arboreal marsupials in the montane ash forests of the central highlands of Victoria, south-eastern Australia. VIII. Landscape analysis of the occurrence of arboreal marsupials.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Macfarlane, C., Coote, M., White, D. A., and Adams, M. A. (2000). Photographic exposure affects indirect estimation of leaf area in plantations of Eucalyptus globulus Labill. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 100, 155–168.
Photographic exposure affects indirect estimation of leaf area in plantations of Eucalyptus globulus Labill.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Macfarlane, C., Hoffman, M., Eamus, D., Kerp, N., Higginson, S., McMurtrie, R., and Adams, M. (2007). Estimation of leaf area index in eucalypt forest using digital photography. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 143, 176–188.
Estimation of leaf area index in eucalypt forest using digital photography.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

MacKenzie, D., and Bailey, L. (2004). Assessing fit of site occupancy models. Journal of Agricultural. Biological and Ecological Statistics 9, 300–318.

MacKenzie, D. I., Nichols, J. D., Lachman, G. B., Droege, S., Royle, J. A., and Langtimm, C. A. (2002). Estimating site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are less than one. Ecology 83, 2248–2255.
Estimating site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are less than one.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Maxwell, S., Burbidge, A. A., and Morris, K. (1996). ‘The 1996 Action Plan for Australian Marsupials and Monotremes.’ Wildlife Australia, Canberra. Available at http://www.environment.gov.au/resource/action-plan-australian-marsupials-and-monotremes

Moilanen, A., and Hanski, I. (1998). Metapopulation dynamics: effects of habitat quality and landscape structure. Ecology 79, 2503–2515.
Metapopulation dynamics: effects of habitat quality and landscape structure.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Murray, J. V., Choy, S. L., McAlpine, C. A., Possingham, H. P., and Goldizen, A. W. (2011). Evaluating model transferability for a threatened species to adjacent areas: implications for rock-wallaby conservation. Austral Ecology 36, 76–89.
Evaluating model transferability for a threatened species to adjacent areas: implications for rock-wallaby conservation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Osborne, P. E., Alonso, J. C., and Bryant, R. G. (2001). Modelling landscape-scale habitat use using GIS and remote sensing: a case study with great bustards. Journal of Applied Ecology 38, 458–471.
Modelling landscape-scale habitat use using GIS and remote sensing: a case study with great bustards.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Real, R., Barbosa, A. M., Rodriguez, A., Garcıa, F. J., Vargas, J. M., Palomo, L. J., and Delibes, M. (2009). Conservation biogeography of ecologically interacting species: the case of the Iberian lynx and the European rabbit. Diversity & Distributions 15, 390–400.
Conservation biogeography of ecologically interacting species: the case of the Iberian lynx and the European rabbit.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Rota, C. T., Fletcher, R. J., Evans, J. M., and Hutto, R. L. (2011). Does accounting for imperfect detection improve species distribution models? Ecography 34, 659–670.
Does accounting for imperfect detection improve species distribution models?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Saunders, G., and McLeod, L. (2007). Improving fox management strategies in Australia. Bureau of Rural Sciences, Canberra.

Sinclair, E. A. (1998). Morphological variation among populations of the quokka, Setonix brachyurus (Macropodidae: Marsupialia), in Western Australia. Australian Journal of Zoology 46, 439–449.
Morphological variation among populations of the quokka, Setonix brachyurus (Macropodidae: Marsupialia), in Western Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Spencer, R., and Baxter, G. S. (2006). Effects of fire on the structure and composition of open eucalypt forests. Austral Ecology 31, 638–646.
Effects of fire on the structure and composition of open eucalypt forests.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Storr, G. M. (1964). The environment of the quokka (Setonix brachyurus) in the Darling Range, Western Australia. Journal of the Royal Society of Western Australia 47, 1–2.

Triggs, B. E. (1996). ‘Tracks, Scats and Other Traces.’ (Oxford University Press: Melbourne.)

White, S. R. (1952). The occurrence of the quokka in the south-west. Western Australian Naturalist (Perth) 3, 101–103.

Williams-Tripp, M., D’Amico, F. J. N., Page, C., Bertrand, A., Nemoz, M., and Brown, J. A. (2012). Modeling rare species distribution at the edge: the case for the vulnerable endemic Pyrenean Desman in France. TheScientificWorldJournal 2012, 612965.
Modeling rare species distribution at the edge: the case for the vulnerable endemic Pyrenean Desman in France.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:STN:280:DC%2BC38njvFSksQ%3D%3D&md5=9a4d7b3b75de9f54cf2feaaa9fd53b00CAS | 22593702PubMed |

Young, N. E., Stohlgren, T. J., Evangelista, P. H., Kumar, S., Graham, J., and Newman, G. (2012). Regional data refine local predictions: modelling the distribution of plant species abundance on a portion of the central plains. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 184, 5439–5451.
Regional data refine local predictions: modelling the distribution of plant species abundance on a portion of the central plains.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 21912866PubMed |