
%0 Journal Article
%A Grace, Warwick 
%T Modelling heatwaves: connecting an empirical 
Markov process model with an autoregressive 
model
%J Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal
%D 2011/01/01
%V 61
%N 1
%P 43-52
%K 
%R https://doi.org/10.1071/ES11004
%U https://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/ES11004 
%X The frequency, intensity and duration of heatwaves at sites in mid-latitude Australia are modelled by a Markov process model and an autoregressive model with both producing typical relative errors of ten to fifteen per cent. The Markov model requires a location-specific empirical coefficient and this coefficient is shown to have a dependency on the summer-time autocorrelation and a seasonality index. Applying the autoregressive model to simple idealised climates, a very similar dependency is found which serves to demonstrate a connection between the two models. The use of detrended temperature, rather than actual temperature, has no material effect on the results 
