
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Grace, Warwick 
T1  - Modelling heatwaves: connecting an empirical 
Markov process model with an autoregressive 
model
JF  - Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal
JO  - Aust. Meteor. and Ocean. J.
Y1  - 2011
VL  - 61
IS  - 1
SP  - 43
EP  - 52
KW  - 
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1071/ES11004 
N2  - The frequency, intensity and duration of heatwaves at sites in mid-latitude Australia are modelled by a Markov process model and an autoregressive model with both producing typical relative errors of ten to fifteen per cent. The Markov model requires a location-specific empirical coefficient and this coefficient is shown to have a dependency on the summer-time autocorrelation and a seasonality index. Applying the autoregressive model to simple idealised climates, a very similar dependency is found which serves to demonstrate a connection between the two models. The use of detrended temperature, rather than actual temperature, has no material effect on the results 
ER  -

