
%0 Journal Article
%A Finney, MA 
%T The Missing Tail and Other Considerations for the Use of Fire History Models
%J International Journal of Wildland Fire
%D 1995/12/01
%V 5
%N 4
%P 197-202
%K Fie history; Age class distinctions
%R https://doi.org/10.1071/WF9950197
%U https://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF9950197 
%X This paper reviews methods used for testing the fit of the cumulative form of a negative exponential distribution to the cumulative distribution of forest age-classes. It is shown that existing methods can lead to a greater chance of falsely rejecting the fit of the negative exponential model and inferring that fire frequencies have changed through time. This results when the old-age tail of a negative exponential distribution is mathematically assumed to be present at the end of the age-class distribution. In reality, the tail is censored from sample distributions of forest age-classes. Censoring alters the shape of a cumulative age-class distribution from the straight line expected for a semi-log graph of the cumulative negative exponential model. A solution to this problem is proposed that restricts the tests-of-fit to the portion of the negative exponential distribution that overlaps with the data to be tested. The cumulative age-class distribution can then be compared directly with the cumulative of a truncated negative exponential distribution. Considerations for interpreting a poor fit are then discussed. 
