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Australian Journal of Botany Australian Journal of Botany Society
Southern hemisphere botanical ecosystems
RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Climate change or tree disease: challenges for diagnosing causes of forest die-off

George Matusick https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3198-4113 A * , Katinka X. Ruthrof A B , Peter Scott C and Giles E. St. J. Hardy A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A School of Environmental and Conservation Sciences, Murdoch University, 90 South Street, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia.

B Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Kensington, WA 6151, Australia.

C Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Level 5.130 – 1 Nash Street, Perth, WA 6000, Australia.

* Correspondence to: matusge@auburn.edu

Handling Editor: Olusegun Osunkoya

Australian Journal of Botany - https://doi.org/10.1071/BT23039
Submitted: 14 May 2023  Accepted: 10 October 2023   Published online: 6 November 2023

© 2023 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Context

Forest ecosystems experience compositional and structural changes as species’ environmental envelopes shift with climate change. Extreme climate events and pests/pathogens are driving these ecosystem changes. Determining which of the two potential drivers is causing a particular forest die-off can be challenging. In south-western Australia, widespread forest die-off in 2011 coincided with extremely hot and dry conditions. It occurred in a forest ecosystem that has historically experienced Phytophthora cinnamomi root disease (Phytophthora dieback).

Aims

To determine whether the causal agent of Phytophthora dieback, P. cinnamomi, was associated with forest die-off in the Northern Jarrah Forest.

Methods

A combination of direct (isolation of pathogen) and indirect (survey of susceptible indicator plant species) measurements were taken inside and outside patches of forest experiencing the die-off.

Key results

There was no consistent association between die-off patches and the presence of P. cinnamomi. P. cinnamomi was isolated from 3 of 33 control plots and 3 of 33 die-off plots. Although several plant species susceptible to P. cinnamomi were absent from die-off plots, the findings were inconsistent across species. This may be explained by plant tolerance to high temperatures and drought.

Conclusions

P. cinnamomi was not the proximate cause of the observed die-off in the Northern Jarrah Forest in 2011.

Implications

Novel disturbance caused by extreme climate events can mimic damage caused by certain pests/pathogens. More research is needed to determine the tolerances of plants to extreme temperature and drought conditions to disentangle abiotic and biotic drivers of tree die-off.

Keywords: climate change, drought, eucalypt dieback, Eucalyptus marginata, extreme climate event, jarrah, Phytophthora cinnamomi, Phytophthora dieback.

Introduction

Changes in species’ environmental envelopes with climate change are expected to result in compositional, structural and ecosystem-type shifts in the coming decades in many regions (Anadón et al. 2014; Taylor et al. 2017). The direct effects of climate change and the influence of forest pests and pathogens are expected to be the proximate mechanisms driving these shifts (Beckage et al. 2008; Dukes et al. 2009). Therefore, understanding the relative roles of these two mechanisms is vital for determining the rate and direction ecosystems will shift and developing potential mitigation strategies.

Management of Phytophthora diseases, which are among the most destructive tree diseases worldwide (Hansen 2015; Burgess et al. 2017), is likely to become increasingly complex because of climate change. Soil-borne Phytophthora species rely on soil moisture for movement, reproduction and infection of hosts, making the disease susceptible to climate change-driven moisture changes (La Porta et al. 2008; Sturrock et al. 2011). Whereas some future climate scenarios, including drying, may reduce the severity of Phytophthora diseases in certain regions, other regions may experience an increase in severity of the disease due to optimal conditions for the manifestation of the phenomenon (Aguayo et al. 2014; Homet et al. 2019). Phytophthora diseases may also interact with climate drivers of tree stress to cause greater tree die-off and mortality (Corcobado et al. 2014). Finally, climate change is likely to result in tree damage that is rarely documented, which has the potential to mimic disease symptoms and lead to misdiagnosis. This effect of climate change may be particularly important for root disease caused by Phytophthora species, because disease diagnosis and mapping are commonly symptom-driven (Hardy et al. 2007; Wilson et al. 2012), owing to the high costs and frequent false negatives of isolation and culture methods (Hüberli et al. 2000).

The Mediterranean climate region of south-western Australia provides a model region to highlight the management challenges and ecosystem effects of climate change and introduced Phytophthora pathogens on forest ecosystems. The region has experienced declining precipitation (Timbal et al. 2006; Delworth and Zeng 2014) and increasing temperatures in recent decades (Hope et al. 2015), resulting in significant declines in streamflow (Liu et al. 2019) and groundwater levels (Liu et al. 2019; McFarlane et al. 2020), among other changes. Most ecosystems have also been affected by the introduction of species of the soil-borne water mold, Phytophthora (Shearer et al. 2007; Ritchie et al. 2021). Corresponding with these climate and disease changes, a wide variety of forest and woodland tree species have experienced episodes of tree die-off, crown decline and tree mortality (Hooper and Sivasithamparam 2005; Dakin et al. 2010; Matusick et al. 2012, 2013; Paap et al. 2017; Wentzel et al. 2018; Ritchie et al. 2021). Phytophthora cinnamomi, one of the most destructive plant pathogens worldwide (Burgess et al. 2017; Sena et al. 2018), remains the predominant pathogen threat to ecosystems in south-western Australia (Shearer et al. 2004, 2007), causing significant dieback. It kills plants throughout the South-West Botanical Province (Shearer et al. 2004), including in the Banksia woodland ecosystem (Shearer and Dillon 1996), the hyper-diverse Stirling Range (Wills 1993) and the jarrah forest ecosystem (McDougall et al. 2002). Understorey plant species, especially those in the Proteaceae, Fabaceae and Ericaceae (among others), are especially susceptible to disease. Since its discovery in the jarrah forest ecosystem, P. cinnamomi has been considered the cause of progressive crown dieback, leading to mortality of stands of overstorey jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) trees (‘Phytophthora dieback’). However, more recently, the direct role of P. cinnamomi in the death of jarrah is under debate (Davison 2015, 2018). Regardless of the role of P. cinnamomi in jarrah’s decline and death, it remains a clear threat to the vegetative biodiversity of the jarrah forest ecosystem. The future sustainable use of the jarrah forest for recreation, conservation and bauxite mining is contingent on the successful management of P. cinnamomi (Colquhoun and Hardy 2000).

Mapping the distribution of P. cinnamomi is the most critical component of Phytophthora dieback management. Various direct and indirect methods have been used to map P. cinnamomi in the jarrah forest (Dell et al. 2005). Research has increased the accuracy and decreased the cost of detecting the pathogen’s presence through direct isolation (Aghighi et al. 2016), and in situ and ex situ baiting using soil and susceptible plant material (Burgess et al. 2021). However, these methods continue to be impractical for mapping large geographic areas or complex patterns of disease distribution and are mostly used strategically to supplement indirect disease mapping methods. The approach most relied on includes using the presence/absence of species known to be susceptible to the disease (Koch 2007). Disease symptoms and pathogen isolation are most common on the ‘dieback front’ (McDougall et al. 2002), and by identifying the presence of symptoms in susceptible species, skilled ‘dieback interpreters’ develop maps of the leading edge of infested patches. Then, the disease can often be effectively contained by avoiding the movement of infested soil and plant material from infested to not infested areas (Dunstan et al. 2010). Therefore, a thorough understanding of the stressors and potential causes of plant symptom development is necessary for accurate P. cinnamomi mapping.

In 2011, extensive areas of the Northern Jarrah Forest (NJF) experienced rapid canopy die-off (Fig. 1) associated with extreme climatic conditions, including a heatwave-compounded drought (Matusick et al. 2013). The die-off was most common on sites containing rocky soils with low water-holding capacity, at high elevations, on steep slopes surrounding rock outcrops, in xeric areas (Brouwers et al. 2013; Andrew et al. 2016), with shallow bedrock and thin soils (McGrath et al. 2023), and most severe on sites experiencing a long-term precipitation decline (Matusick et al. 2018). Forest vegetation surrounding rock outcrops experiences waterlogging during precipitation events, and excessive soil drying during drought (Withers 2000; Schut et al. 2014). These soil conditions, including repeated cycles of waterlogging (root hypoxia), are known to stress jarrah directly (Davison and Tay 1985), as well as potentially increase the P. cinnamomi infection in jarrah roots (Davison and Tay 1987). Increasing the complexity, one of the largest and most common plant species used for mapping P. cinnamomi infestation (Banksia grandis) experienced widespread die-off during the heatwave-compounded drought event in 2011, exhibiting symptoms similar to those of P. cinnamomi infection (Steel et al. 2019). The unprecedented die-off of B. grandis, and other species susceptible to P. cinnamomi, presented the opportunity for confusion and uncertainty when mapping Phytophthora dieback. Whereas the die-off event was strongly associated with extreme climatic conditions, the role of P. cinnamomi remains unclear. Thus, this study aimed to determine whether there was a consistent association between P. cinnamomi presence and areas of the NJF experiencing die-off in 2011.

Fig. 1.

Canopy die-off in the Northern Jarrah Forest of south-western Australia in 2011.


BT23039_F1.gif

Methods

Study area

The Northern Jarrah Forest (NJF) occupies 1.1 million ha on the Darling Plateau, a topographic feature that parallels the western coast approximately 20–30 km inland, with undulating topography ranging from ~200 m to ~300 m above sea level (Fig. 2). Several prominent peaks rise above the plateau (~500–600 m above sea level). Most of the NJF has a lateritic duricrust resulting in surface soils dominated by coarse gravels. The bedrock is granitic, which has led to the formation of a clay subsoil occupying the space between the duricrust and granite basement (Churchward and Dimmock 1989). Clay depths vary greatly from non-existent surrounding rock outcrops up to 40 m (Dell et al. 1983). There is a slight north–south temperature gradient within the NJF, and a strong west–east precipitation gradient, historically ranging from ~1200 mm year−1 in the west to ~630 mm year−1 in the east (Gentilli 1989). Corresponding with the relatively good growing conditions in the west, and poorer conditions in the east, the forest structure is significantly denser and taller in the west than the relatively short, open forest in the east. The NJF has historically been used for timber production (Bradshaw 1999). However, since the 1970s, the forest has increasingly been managed for multiple uses, including bauxite mining, recreation and biodiversity conservation.

Fig. 2.

Map of the Northern Jarrah Forest in south-western Australia, including 20 sites sampled for Phytophthora cinnamomi at the site level and 11 sites sampled for P. cinnamomi using unbiased baiting and isolation procedures.


BT23039_F2.gif

P. cinnamomi

The soil-borne water mold, P. cinnamomi, was thought to be introduced to south-western Australia prior to 1920. A combination of factors led to the movement and proliferation of the pathogen throughout large portions of the NJF between 1940 and 1970, including a lack of understanding and appreciation for the magnitude of the disease problem and extensive road construction with potentially infested gravel material (Dell and Malajczuk 1989). Today, P. cinnamomi is known to occur throughout the western forest margin and across all topographic positions. Moving inland from the infested escarpment, the disease-affected forest becomes increasingly concentrated in drainage and lower-slope topographic positions, because P. cinnamomi moves readily through the movement of soil water (McDougall et al. 2002).

Site selection

Shortly following the cessation of the forest die-off event in NJF in 2011, 20 symptomatic areas were selected randomly from a larger sample detected during an aerial survey in May 2011 (see Matusick et al. (2013) for details). The boundary of each area affected by die-off, defined as having >70% of trees exhibiting dying or recently killed crowns, was delineated accurately by using a differential GPS. Three points were selected randomly within each die-off patch, representing the centre of a 6-m radius (0.011 ha) circular plot. Because die-off patches were clearly defined, control areas that exhibited minimal crown symptoms could be close to symptomatic ones. Therefore, three control plots were established approximately 20 m from the boundary of the forest experiencing die-off.

Site sampling

Traditionally, the presence and distribution of P. cinnamomi have been determined at the site level in advance of timber harvest or other projects involving soil movement. Site-level sampling provides the greatest possible chance of detecting P. cinnamomi. For each study site (Fig. 2), including the area within and surrounding die-off patches, the presence of P. cinnamomi was evaluated on the basis of the interpreter guidelines (Department of Conservation and Land Management 2001). The guidelines involve assessing the interpretability of the site, detecting and demarcating obvious infested areas and establishing transects through less obvious portions of the site. Samples of symptomatic, susceptible plant species and soil surrounding the plants were collected and baited to detect P. cinnamomi (see below for plot sampling methods). The result of the investigation determined whether P. cinnamomi was present within or near delineated die-off patches.

Plot sampling

In addition to site-level sampling, study plots were also sampled in 11 of the 20 study sites. Plot-level sampling was more random than site-level sampling and was conducted to directly examine the association between vegetation health and P. cinnamomi presence. Each 6-m radius plot was divided into four equal quadrants (north-west, north-east, south-east, south-west). Within each quadrant, two 25 cm × 25 cm × 5 cm soil monoliths were collected. Samples were preferentially taken near symptomatic understorey plants susceptible to P. cinnamomi (examples in Table 1).

Table 1.Key understorey and mid-storey species of the Northern Jarrah Forest, south-western Australia, that are susceptible to Phytophthora cinnamomi (modified from Groves et al. (2009), McDougall (2005), see references therein).

SpeciesSusceptibilityReference/s
Adenanthos barbigerS, HSAlcoa of Australia (2002), Shearer and Dillon (1995)
Banksia grandisS, HSAlcoa of Australia (2002), Cho (1983), McCredie et al. (1985), Podger (1972), Shearer and Dillon (1996), Shearer and Dillon (1995), Wills (1993), Barrett (1996)
Boronia fastigiataSMcDougall (1997)
Hibbertia amplexicaulisS, HSShearer and Dillon (1996), McDougall et al. (2002), Edmiston (1989), McDougall (1997), Shearer and Dillon (1995)
Leucopogon capitellatusS, MSAlcoa of Australia (2002), Edmiston (1989), Hill (1990), McDougall et al. (2002), Shearer and Dillon (1996), McDougall (1997), Wills (1993)
Leucopogon verticillatusS, HSAlcoa of Australia (2002), Edmiston (1989), Shearer and Dillon (1996), Shearer and Dillon (1995), McDougall (1997)
Persoonia ellipticaS, HSAlcoa of Australia (2002)
Persoonia longifoliaS, HSAlcoa of Australia (2002), McDougall et al. (2002), Podger (1972), Titze and Palzer (1969), McDougall (1997), Wills (1993), Barrett (1996)
Xanthorrhoea gracilisS, HS, SPAlcoa of Australia (2002), Edmiston (1989), Hill (1990), McDougall et al. (2002), Podger (1972), Shearer and Dillon (1996), McDougall (1997), Wills (1993)
Xanthorrhoea preissiiS, HS, SPAlcoa of Australia (2002), Edmiston (1989), Hill (1990), McDougall et al. (2002), Podger (1972), Shearer and Dillon (1995), McDougall (1997), Wills (1993), Barrett (1996)

S, susceptible; MS, moderately susceptible; HS, highly susceptible; SP, susceptible but persistent.

Phytophthora baiting and isolation

Each soil sample was sifted using a sieve to isolate coarse roots (>2 mm diameter). The sieve was sterilised between the samples each time. A sample of coarse roots and sifted soil was taken from each sample location and bulked for each plot quadrant. This process resulted in four soil samples and four root samples from each plot. Soil and root samples were baited within 2 days of field collection in a baiting container (15 cm long × 5 cm wide × 5 cm deep). Phytophthora species baiting followed a protocol developed by the Centre for Phytophthora Science and Management (CPSM), Murdoch University (Burgess et al. 2021). Sample material was saturated with distilled water for 24 h, followed by complete flooding. Young Quercus spp. (Quercus suber and Quercus ilex) leaves were floated on each baiting tray following flooding. Baits were checked daily for discoloration and symptoms of infection for 20 days. When symptoms were detected, diseased leaf tissue was cut into sections and plated on Phytophthora-selective media (NARPH, Hüberli et al. 2000). Representatives of all Pythiaceae colonies were isolated. However, only P. cinnamomi was identified to species on the basis of morphological characteristics.

Understorey species survey

The presence of native plant species that are known to be highly susceptible to P. cinnamomi in the 6-m study plots suggests that the pathogen may not be present. To examine this indirect evidence for the absence of P. cinnamomi, all understorey and mid-storey species were recorded within each of the 120 plots, spanning all 20 die-off patches, in late winter/spring (June–October 2011). Each of the plants was categorised into P. cinnamomi susceptibility classes on the basis of McDougall (2005) (Table 2). Here, we report results on 10 common plant taxa that are known to be either highly or moderately susceptible to P. cinnamomi infection and mortality (McDougall 2005) (Table 1). A binary logistic regression using SAS software (SAS ver. 9.4, Cary, NC, USA) was implemented to explore the association between plot health (die-off vs control) and presence/health condition of each of the focal 10 species.

Table 2.Susceptibility rating to Phytophthora cinnamomi (modified from McDougall (2005), see references therein).

Susceptibility ratingDescriptionReferences
HS: Highly susceptibleSpecies highly susceptible, i.e. species that are frequently and consistently killed in the wild, following infection by P. cinnamomi, and/or appear to decline or be rare on infested sitesIncludes scale categories 10, 11 and 12 of Wills (1993) and Barrett (1996), and groups 3 and 5 of Shearer and Dillon (1995)
MS: Moderately susceptible or variable susceptibilitySpecies that are often killed following infection by P. cinnamomi in the wild, but many plants that commonly surviveIncludes scale categories 7, 8 and 9 of Wills (1993) and Barrett (1996), and group 4 of Shearer and Dillon (1995)
LS: Low susceptibilitySpecies that are rarely but occasionally found dead on infested sitesIncludes scale categories 4, 5 and 6 of Wills (1993) and Barrett (1996), and group 2 of Shearer and Dillon (1995)
S: Susceptible and thought to be affectedDegree of susceptibility not documented
SP: Susceptible but persistentSpecies that are frequently killed following infection by P. cinnamomi in the wild, but which persist on affected sites through effective reproductive strategies
SV: Variable susceptibilityPlants may be commonly killed on some infested sites but appear unaffected on others – this may be attributable to genetic differences among populations or differences in site characteristics that influence plant responses
FR: Field resistant or tolerantSpecies that appear to be unaffected by P. cinnamomi in the wild when it is present and for which deaths in the field can rarely be associated with infection by P. cinnamomiIncludes scale categories 1, 2 and 3 of Wills (1993) and Barrett (1996), and group 1 of Shearer and Dillon (1995)
Q: Not known to be directly affectedRarely found on affected sites (and may be affected either directly through infection or changes in habitat)

Results

By using established site-level interpretation approaches, P. cinnamomi was detected at 3 of 20 sites (Table 3). This included one detection within a patch experiencing canopy die-off and three detections outside patches of canopy die-off.

Table 3.Twenty research sites in the Northern Jarrah Forest, south-western Australia, within (die-off) and outside (control) patches experiencing die-off following heatwave-compounded drought in 2011.

Site numberEucalyptus marginata trees (%)E. marginata trees dying or recently killed (%)Phytophthora cinnamomi site-level interpretation (1 = positive detection)Plot-level P. cinnamomi samplingAP. cinnamomi detection (%)
Control plotsDie-off plotsControl plotsDie-off plotsWithin die-off patchOutside die-off patchControl plotsDie-off plots
1208563300100
2808900111330
57799089001330
278979610000100
487191159000100
599489096000
746395010000100
80786629330013366
8710043060000
966599567000
986062092000
997860095000
1527386053010
1554169949000
1656685382001033
1667392126600100
1814971010000100
1839261113300100
23210095032000
2407798088010

All sites had site-level interpretation and a subset of sites (11, with three control and three die-off plots) were assessed for Phytophthora cinnamomi by using isolation at the plot level (n = 8 sample/plot).

A Sites sampled for Phytophthora cinnamomi by isolation from roots and soil denoted as 1.

Of the 11 sites where P. cinnamomi was assessed at the plot level via isolation, P. cinnamomi was detected at four sites. At a plot level, P. cinnamomi was found at 3 of 33 plots in control forest, not experiencing die-off, and at 3 of 33 plots in forest experiencing die-off. P. cinnamomi was found using both site-level and plot-level methods on one site. In total, including both site- and plot-level methods of detection, P. cinnamomi was detected at 6 of the 20 total study sites. There were situations where plot-level sampling detected P. cinnamomi and site-level interpretation did not (Sites 80 and 165).

Plot health (die-off vs control) contributed significantly to explaining the presence of 2 of 10 plant species known to be susceptible to P. cinnamomi (Table 4). Adenanthos barbiger and B. grandis were more likely to occur in control plots than in plots experiencing die-off. Other species had similar trends, including Persoonia longifolia and Boronia fastigata, but plot health was not a significant predictor at P = 0.05. Among the sites where P. cinnamomi was confirmed present (either by site- or plot-level methods), the 10 susceptible plant species were found on ~50% of control plots and ~28% of die-off plots.

Table 4.Plant species susceptible to Phytophthora cinnamomi and their presence in plots located in control (non-symptomatic) forest and forest experiencing die-off in 2011 in the Northern Jarrah Forest, south-western Australia.

SpeciesControl plots (%)Die-off plots (%)X2P-value
Adenanthos barbiger45408.38350.0038
Banksia grandis652512.80240.0003
Boronia fastigiata30102.73320.0983
Hibbertia amplexicaulis65450.70780.4002
Leucopogon capitellatus35300.05770.8102
Leucopogon verticillatus30302.10210.1471
Persoonia elliptica10100.67550.4111
Persoonia longifolia80453.60780.0575
Xanthorrhoea gracilis70551.24490.2645
Xanthorrhoea preissii75901.6810.1948

Discussion

There was no evidence of a consistent association between P. cinnamomi and forest experiencing die-off, which would be required to attribute the die-off to P. cinnamomi infestation. Instead, P. cinnamomi was confirmed on a small subset of sites. These findings are unsurprising because P. cinnamomi is known to infest sites throughout the NJF (McDougall et al. 2002). However, the presence of Phytophthora root pathogens does not automatically imply disease, because specific environmental factors must be aligned with pathogen biology and host susceptibility (Shearer and Crane 2014). From vegetation surveys, there was minimal indirect evidence of the association between P. cinnamomi and forest die-off in 2011. Certain plant species susceptible to P. cinnamomi were found less frequently on die-off plots. However, this pattern was not consistent across all indicator plant species. We consider the observed differences in plant species between sites to represent weak evidence since these differences may be explained by tolerance to drought and heat, which is largely unknown. For example, B. grandis, commonly used for mapping P. cinnamomi infestations because of its high susceptibility, appears less tolerant of drought stress than do other mid-storey species in the NJF from field observations (Matusick et al. 2013; Steel et al. 2019). The low frequency of P. cinnamomi isolation and inconsistent indirect evidence of P. cinnamomi infestation leads us to conclude that P. cinnamomi was not consistently associated with the forest die-off patches and was not the primary cause of the die-off event in the NJF.

Uncertainty in the weeks and months following the onset of die-off in the NJF regarding the cause of the damage highlights an understudied challenge climate change is likely to impose on forest managers. Most research regarding the interaction between climate change and biotic pests of forests focuses on shifts in geographic distributions (Bergot et al. 2004; Ikegami and Jenkins 2018), changes in pest biology (Mitton and Ferrenberg 2012) and host resistance (Cudmore et al. 2010). However, tree and forest die-off can be associated with extreme climatic events and biotic sources of tree stress (Shaw et al. 2005; Navarro-Cerrillo et al. 2022), creating a potential source of uncertainty regarding the proximate cause. Indeed, several widespread forest die-off events have led to conflicting reports of the proximate causes of die-off because of the association with both abiotic and biotic tree stressors (Jurskis and Turner 2002; Close et al. 2009; Negrón et al. 2009; de Sampaio e Paiva Camilo-Alves et al. 2013). When both extreme climate stress and Phytophthora root diseases are present, the cause of die-off may be particularly difficult to diagnose because Phytophthora species can be challenging to isolate consistently from tissues (Tsao 1990; Bowman et al. 2007), and disease may be diagnosed from host symptomology (Spencer 1984; Burgess et al. 2009). Such was the case for the NJF following the die-off in 2011, where climate stress and P. cinnamomi were suspected of causing the tree die-off. This research suggests that determining causation on the basis of symptomology alone may no longer be valid in many parts of the NJF under a warming and drying climate.

The unprecedented response of terrestrial and marine organisms to climatic extremes in south-western Australia (Ruthrof et al. 2018) highlights the need for basic research regarding the tolerance of species to extreme temperatures, especially when combined with drought. During and following the heatwave-compounded drought in the NJF, plants were observed responding in ways that had only ever been associated with P. cinnamomi infection, fueling confusion regarding the cause of the stress. Basic understanding of temperature and moisture tolerances is unknown for most species in south-western Australia and other regions experiencing similar climate extremes (Breshears et al. 2021). Filling the knowledge gap in species tolerances to extreme temperatures and moisture regimes will be important for interpreting the causes of novel disturbance in the future (Tesky et al. 2015). Once a library of stress tolerances among predominant plant species in different ecosystems is developed, this information could be compiled and disseminated in extension publications and field guides to assist professionals in discriminating among potential stress agents.

In summary, here we have highlighted one understudied phenomenon likely to occur with greater frequency under continued climate change, the challenge of diagnosing proximate causes of novel disturbances. This problem is expected to be particularly acute when biotic stress agents and abiotic sources of stress are both present prior to die-off, and when Phytophthora root pathogens are suspected. In the example reported here, a collection of direct and indirect evidence was analysed to conclude that P. cinnamomi was not the proximate cause of the observed die-off in the NJF. South-western Australia can be seen as a climate-change hotspot (Andrich and Imberger 2013; Foster et al. 2014), experiencing extreme effects of climate change, and can therefore highlight the novel challenges imposed by a shifting climate.

Data availability

The data will be made available upon request to the corresponding author.

Conflicts of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Declaration of funding

This research was conducted as part of the Western Australian State Centre of Excellence for Climate Change and Woodland and Forest Health, a partnership between private industry, community groups, Universities and the Government of Western Australia.

Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Western Australian Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions for accessing field sites, and Treena Burgess, Cielito Marbus and Bill Dunstan (Murdoch University) for assistance in collecting field samples and interpreting Phytophthora dieback on study sites.

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