MANAGEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY AND RISK IN OFFSHORE PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

Uncertainty in petroleum development projects is most often associated with petroleum reserves. It is the limited amount of subsurface data typically available during the time of development planning that creates this situation. Risks are associated not only with reservoir uncertainty but also with wells and production facilities. Risks for offshore projects, as compared to those onshore, are further compounded by very large capital expenditures and less flexibility in catering for subsurface surprises, or remedial action in case of engineering blunders.

These concepts are illustrated using case histories of successful and failed projects. Lessons learned from these and other projects are then summarised and processes for uncertainty and risk management are outlined. Risk and uncertainty cover a wide range of issues, and relate to geoscience, reservoir engineering, well technology, facilities engineering, operations, and project planning and evaluation.