Has the ‘Golden Age of Gas’ bypassed Australia?
Joshua StablerEnergy Edge, PO Box 10755, GPO, Brisbane, Qld, Australia. Email: jstabler@energyedge.com.au
The APPEA Journal 59(1) 134-155 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ18277
Submitted: 12 December 2018 Accepted: 18 January 2019 Published: 17 June 2019
Abstract
In June 2011, the International Energy Agency released the 2011 World Energy Outlook (WEO) series that posed the thought-provoking question: ‘Are we entering a golden age of gas?’ In response to this bold question, this paper first investigates the world’s electricity supply by each fuel type and how the WEO expectations have changed over time. This helps define the progress of the world targets for the ‘Golden Age of Gas’. To provide context to Australian gas conditions, this paper delves deeply into two of the most important international markets in the world: USA and China. Each of these countries are placed in the five fastest growing gas production countries in the world but have had substantially different engagements with gas and their domestic electricity profiles. Each country’s response to the electricity generation-source dilemma has resulted in diametrically opposed carbon emission outcomes. Finally, this paper turns to the Australian experience with gas. As the fifth fastest growing gas producing nation, and now the largest liquefied natural gas exporter in the world, Australia has rapidly shifted from energy price isolation to having strong links to international energy prices. These international price linkages have been applied across both gas and coal markets and have occurred simultaneously with the combination of a wave of renewable energy construction, traditional energy generation exit and paralysed government policy. This leaves a revised question: has the Golden Age of Gas passed Australia?
Keywords: coal generation, energy generation, energy prices, gas generation, International Energy Agency, liquefied natural gas, renewable generation, World Energy Outlook, world gas targets.
Joshua Stabler is a highly energetic, passionate and respected Managing Director of Energy Edge. As an advisor and system developer in the Australian energy industry he has detailed and accurate solutions and insights into an evolving market. Josh has spent 18 years developing the unique ability to research, analyse and extrapolate individual market participant behaviours from highly opaque market sources. Using this skill, Josh has developed the Gas Market Analysis Tool and the Edge gas market update report. These both provide market leading solutions to the opaque and disparate Australia gas market and interactions into the domestic electricity, retail and domestic gas market and the LNG export developments. Our clients have used this insight to extract value and confidence when engaging in the market as an existing or potential market participant. Josh is also able to provide clear and detailed due diligence analysis of new developments or mergers and acquisitions of electricity, gas and environmental market assets. A confident, engaged and articulate speaker, Josh has presented to a range of market stakeholders to provide unparalleled market assessments, share timely industry insight and inform and educate on the latest news and innovations. |
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