Future climate change impacts on grain yield and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions under different cropping systems in the North China Plain

Huizi Bai; Jianzhao Tang; Dengpan Xiao; DeLi Liu

Just Accepted

This article has been peer reviewed and accepted for publication. It is in production and has not been edited, so may differ from the final published form.

Future climate change impacts on grain yield and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions under different cropping systems in the North China Plain

Huizi Bai , Jianzhao Tang, Dengpan Xiao, DeLi Liu

Abstract

Context. The winter wheat-summer maize double-cropping system with high input and output in the North China Plain (NCP) is the primary source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As the climate warms, the NCP faces the challenges of improving agricultural productivity while reducing carbon footprint. Aims. This research aims to explore an optimal cropping system that achieves a balance between high yield and reduced environmental impact while promoting sustainable agricultural development. Methods. Based on climate data from 27 Global Climate Models (GCMs), we evaluated the impacts of future climatic change on yield and GHG emissions of five cropping systems using the Agricultural Production System Simulator Model (APSIM). The cropping systems included winter wheat-summer maize (1Y2MS0, 1year cycle), winter wheat-summer maize-fallow without/with straw mulching-early maize (2Y3MS0/2Y3MS1, 2-year cycle), early maize-fallow without/with straw mulching (1Y1MS0/1Y1MS1, 1-year cycle). Key results. Future climatic change was beneficial for wheat and maize yields for all cropping systems under most climate scenarios. GHG emissions from all cropping systems were projected to increase in the future. However, compared with the conventional intensive 1Y2MS0, cropping system adjustment could decrease indirect emissions from agricultural input, thereby reducing GHG emissions by 21.6–46.0%. Straw mulching during fallow period might slightly increase N2O emissions but could enhance soil carbon sequestration. Conclusions. We suggested that 2Y3MS1 was the optimal planting system in the NCP to balance grain yields and GHG emissions in the future. Implications. This study can inform cleaner production developments to reduce carbon footprint of regional multi-crop systems.

CP25045 Accepted 08 May 2025