Beetaloo’s gas bounty: potential for LNG exports and domestic supply
Krishan Pal Birda A * and Kaushal Ramesh BA
B
Krishan Pal Birda is a Senior Analyst who leads Rystad Energy’s Australasia Upstream Research & Analysis team. In addition to monitoring regional activity in Australasia and among E&P companies, he oversees the Australasia Solutions product. His other responsibilities include publishing frequent analyses, product development, and assisting clients on expert matters. Krishan specialises in the Australian gas & LNG markets as well as coal seam gas modelling. He has been employed with Rystad Energy for over 5 years and has a background in Civil Engineering. |
Kaushal Ramesh is Vice President of LNG and Head of Rystad Energy’s Gas and LNG Analytics and manages the company’s published LNG research, focussing on LNG trading, shipping, and investments. His past advisory work includes project economics, regulatory impact studies, market entry strategies and LNG contract negotiations. Prior to joining Rystad Energy, Kaushal worked in multiple roles at ExxonMobil, managing commercial operations of LNG and condensate cargoes from the Gorgon project, and gas and power sales contracts in the Asia-Pacific. He also advised on spot cargo trades and LNG contracting and investment decisions as a market analyst. |
Abstract
Recent drilling in the Beetaloo Basin has yielded promising results for the emerging shale gas play, enabling the explorers to secure funding and establish a range of non-binding commercial agreements. Notably, Beetaloo wells have exhibited initial production rates over 30 days (IP30), spanning from 1.1 to 5.2 mmcf/day, and there is an evident trend of increasing frac stages with each new well as operators continuously optimise stimulation. This research paper presents comprehensive Beetaloo modelling results, encompassing well type curves, a comparative analysis with the renowned Marcellus shale play in the United States (frequently used as a reference point for Beetaloo), production forecasts, economic assessments, and an examination of potential commercialisation pathways. Based on our modelling findings, Beetaloo’s estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well ranges from 7 to 14 bcf, with deeper wells into the Velkerri B Shale demonstrating relatively higher productivity. We anticipate that, with full-scale development, Beetaloo could attain peak production rates of 1 bcf/day, supported by a peak annual drilling rate averaging 50–60 wells. Overall, the Beetaloo Basin possesses the potential to recover close to 8 tcf of low reservoir CO2 gas, opening doors to the possibility of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports reaching up to 4.5 mtpa and domestic gas supplies of around 94 mmcf/day, limited to the existing infrastructure capacity connecting to the east coast gas markets.
Keywords: Beetaloo, costs, east coast, EUR, gas, LNG, Marcellus, Northern Territory, shale, well.
Krishan Pal Birda is a Senior Analyst who leads Rystad Energy’s Australasia Upstream Research & Analysis team. In addition to monitoring regional activity in Australasia and among E&P companies, he oversees the Australasia Solutions product. His other responsibilities include publishing frequent analyses, product development, and assisting clients on expert matters. Krishan specialises in the Australian gas & LNG markets as well as coal seam gas modelling. He has been employed with Rystad Energy for over 5 years and has a background in Civil Engineering. |
Kaushal Ramesh is Vice President of LNG and Head of Rystad Energy’s Gas and LNG Analytics and manages the company’s published LNG research, focussing on LNG trading, shipping, and investments. His past advisory work includes project economics, regulatory impact studies, market entry strategies and LNG contract negotiations. Prior to joining Rystad Energy, Kaushal worked in multiple roles at ExxonMobil, managing commercial operations of LNG and condensate cargoes from the Gorgon project, and gas and power sales contracts in the Asia-Pacific. He also advised on spot cargo trades and LNG contracting and investment decisions as a market analyst. |
References
Empire Energy (2024) NAPE Conference Houston Presentation. ASX announcement on 9 February 2024. Available at https://empireenergygroup.net/investors/announcements/
Tamboran Resources (2023) Tamboran Resources Limited 2023 AGM Presentation. ASX announcement on 9 February 2024. Available at https://www.tamboran.com/announcements/
