Decoding decarbonisation: navigating emerging market dynamics in the Australian gas supply industry

Abstract

This paper provides practical guidance for stakeholders navigating the complex energy transition, with a focus on the role of low-carbon gases. It offers a structured framework for understanding the key challenges and actionable steps needed to move towards a decarbonised energy system. The paper identifies five core knowledge areas that are essential for guiding the energy transition and emphasises the importance of collaboration and trust in overcoming challenges. The knowledge areas emerge via intersecting the strategic drivers of key stakeholders – energy suppliers, users and governments – each of whom play a nuanced role in shaping the transition. The primary challenge lies in reconciling established business models with the urgent need for decarbonisation, a shift that often requires increased risk exposure for potentially lower short-term returns. Key insights include the competition between decarbonised options and incumbent energy sources, such as the growing dominance of electrification in certain sectors and the ongoing role of carbon capture in hard-to-abate industries. The paper highlights the importance of risk-sharing partnerships, particularly drawn from the liquefied natural gas (LNG)-to-power value chain, and emphasises how government policies can stimulate market growth, despite the challenges posed by slow policy change. A ‘next action’ mindset is proposed to simplify the complexity of the transition, with actionable steps to clarify feasibility, reduce costs, develop robust business cases, build partnerships, and align expectations with broader policy goals. Through this framework, stakeholders can foster innovation, creativity and trust, positioning themselves effectively in the evolving energy market.