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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Contents Vol 76(6)

Future climate change impacts on grain yield and agricultural greenhouse-gas emissions under different cropping systems in the North China Plain

Huizi Bai https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2045-3077 A , Jianzhao Tang A , Dengpan Xiao B C * and De Li Liu D
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Hebei Technology Innovation Center for Geographic Information Application, Institute of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050011, China.

B College of Geography Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China.

C Hebei Laboratory of Environmental Evolution and Ecological Construction, Shijiazhuang 050024, China.

D NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia.

* Correspondence to: xiaodp@sjziam.ac.cn

Handling Editor: Yang Song

Crop & Pasture Science 76, CP25045 https://doi.org/10.1071/CP25045
Submitted: 19 February 2025  Accepted: 8 May 2025  Published: 2 June 2025

© 2025 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing

Abstract

Context

The winter wheat–summer maize double-cropping system with high input and output in the North China Plain (NCP) is the primary source of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. As the climate warms, the NCP faces the challenges of improving agricultural productivity, while reducing carbon footprint.

Aims

This research aims to explore an optimal cropping system that achieves a balance between high yield and reduced environmental impact, while promoting sustainable agricultural development.

Methods

On the basis of climate data from 27 global climate models (GCMs), we evaluated the impacts of future climatic change on yield and GHG emissions of five cropping systems by using the Agricultural Production System Simulator Model (APSIM). The cropping systems included winter wheat–summer maize (1Y2MS0, 1-year cycle), winter wheat–summer maize-fallow without/with straw mulching–early maize (2Y3MS0/2Y3MS1, 2-year cycle), early maize-fallow without/with straw mulching (1Y1MS0/1Y1MS1, 1-year cycle).

Key results

Future climatic change was beneficial for wheat and maize yields for all cropping systems under most climate scenarios. GHG emissions from all cropping systems were projected to increase in the future. However, compared with the conventional intensive 1Y2MS0, cropping system adjustment could decrease indirect emissions from agricultural input, thereby reducing GHG emissions by 21.6–46.0%. Straw mulching during fallow period might slightly increase N2O emissions but could enhance soil carbon sequestration.

Conclusions

We suggested that 2Y3MS1 was the optimal planting system in the NCP to balance grain yields and GHG emissions in the future.

Implications

This study can inform cleaner production developments to reduce carbon footprint of regional multi-crop systems.

Keywords: APSIM, carbon footprint, cropping system, future climate, greenhouse-gas emissions, maize, straw multching, wheat.

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