The Rangeland Journal The Rangeland Journal Society
Rangeland ecology and management
REVIEW (Open Access)

Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues

G. M. McKeon A I J , G. S. Stone A , J. I. Syktus A , J. O. Carter A , N. R. Flood A , D. G. Ahrens A , D. N. Bruget A , C. R. Chilcott B , D. H. Cobon C , R. A. Cowley D , S. J. Crimp E , G. W. Fraser A , S. M. Howden E , P. W. Johnston F , J. G. Ryan G , C. J. Stokes H and K. A. Day A

A Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE), Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Building, 80 Meiers Road, Indooroopilly, Qld 4068, Australia.

B Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia, 3 Baron-Hay Court, South Perth, WA 6151, Australia.

C Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE), Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Building, PO Box 102, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia.

D NT Department of Regional Development, Primary Industry, Fisheries and Resources, PO Box 1346, Katherine, NT 0851, Australia.

E CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, GPO Box 284, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.

F Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Animal Research Institute, 665 Fairfield Road, Yeerongpilly, Qld 4105, Australia.

G Centre for Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia.

H CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, PMB PO, Aitkenvale, Qld 4814, Australia.

I Land & Water Australia Senior Research Fellowship.

J Corresponding author. Email: greg.mckeon@climatechange.qld.gov.au

The Rangeland Journal 31(1) 1-29 https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08068
Submitted: 3 December 2008  Accepted: 6 February 2009   Published: 26 March 2009

Abstract

Grazing is a major land use in Australia’s rangelands. The ‘safe’ livestock carrying capacity (LCC) required to maintain resource condition is strongly dependent on climate. We reviewed: the approaches for quantifying LCC; current trends in climate and their effect on components of the grazing system; implications of the ‘best estimates’ of climate change projections for LCC; the agreement and disagreement between the current trends and projections; and the adequacy of current models of forage production in simulating the impact of climate change. We report the results of a sensitivity study of climate change impacts on forage production across the rangelands, and we discuss the more general issues facing grazing enterprises associated with climate change, such as ‘known uncertainties’ and adaptation responses (e.g. use of climate risk assessment).

We found that the method of quantifying LCC from a combination of estimates (simulations) of long-term (>30 years) forage production and successful grazier experience has been well tested across northern Australian rangelands with different climatic regions. This methodology provides a sound base for the assessment of climate change impacts, even though there are many identified gaps in knowledge. The evaluation of current trends indicated substantial differences in the trends of annual rainfall (and simulated forage production) across Australian rangelands with general increases in most of western Australian rangelands (including northern regions of the Northern Territory) and decreases in eastern Australian rangelands and south-western Western Australia.

Some of the projected changes in rainfall and temperature appear small compared with year-to-year variability. Nevertheless, the impacts on rangeland production systems are expected to be important in terms of required managerial and enterprise adaptations.

Some important aspects of climate systems science remain unresolved, and we suggest that a risk-averse approach to rangeland management, based on the ‘best estimate’ projections, in combination with appropriate responses to short-term (1–5 years) climate variability, would reduce the risk of resource degradation.

Climate change projections – including changes in rainfall, temperature, carbon dioxide and other climatic variables – if realised, are likely to affect forage and animal production, and ecosystem functioning. The major known uncertainties in quantifying climate change impacts are: (i) carbon dioxide effects on forage production, quality, nutrient cycling and competition between life forms (e.g. grass, shrubs and trees); and (ii) the future role of woody plants including effects of fire, climatic extremes and management for carbon storage.

In a simple example of simulating climate change impacts on forage production, we found that increased temperature (3°C) was likely to result in a decrease in forage production for most rangeland locations (e.g. –21% calculated as an unweighted average across 90 locations). The increase in temperature exacerbated or reduced the effects of a 10% decrease/increase in rainfall respectively (–33% or –9%). Estimates of the beneficial effects of increased CO2 (from 350 to 650 ppm) on forage production and water use efficiency indicated enhanced forage production (+26%). The increase was approximately equivalent to the decline in forage production associated with a 3°C temperature increase. The large magnitude of these opposing effects emphasised the importance of the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of these components of climate change.

We anticipate decreases in LCC given that the ‘best estimate’ of climate change across the rangelands is for a decline (or little change) in rainfall and an increase in temperature. As a consequence, we suggest that public policy have regard for: the implications for livestock enterprises, regional communities, potential resource damage, animal welfare and human distress. However, the capability to quantify these warnings is yet to be developed and this important task remains as a challenge for rangeland and climate systems science.

Additional keywords: El Niño Southern Oscillation, forage production, grazing, land and pasture degradation, potential evapotranspiration, seasonal climate forecasting.


Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the support of A. Peacock and T. Van Bruggen in preparing the document. We also appreciated the comments of L. Pahl, A. Panjkov, P. Pinjuh, N. Treloar, N. Toombs, G. Whish, and B. Zhang. The important insights of J. Clewett, J. Scanlan, A. Pressland, A. Lauder and several anonymous referees were extremely valuable in dealing with the complexities of the paper. The senior author gratefully acknowledges the support a Land & Water Australia Senior Research Fellowship.


References


Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry Australia (2003). ‘AAA/AFFA Program Evaluation – Rural Producer Survey 2002.’ (Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry Australia: Neutral Bay, NSW.)

Allan R. J. (1985). ‘The Australasian Summer Monsoon, Teleconnections, and Flooding in the Lake Eyre Basin.’ (Royal Geographical Society of Australasia, S. A. Branch: Adelaide.)

Allan R. J. , Beard G. S. , Close A. , Herczeg A. L. , Jones P. D. , and Simpson H. J. (1996). Mean sea level pressure indices of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: relevance to stream discharge in south–eastern Australia. CSIRO Division of Water Resources Report 96/1.

Anon. (1969). ‘Report of the Interdepartmental Committee on Scrub and Timber Regrowth in the Cobar-Byrock District and Other Areas of the Western Division of New South Wales.’ (NSW Government Printer: Sydney.)

Archer S., Schimel D. S., Holland E. A. (1995) Mechanisms of shrubland expansion: land use, climate or CO2? Climatic Change 29, 91–99.
CrossRef | open url image1

Ash A. J. , Corfield J. P. , and Ksiksi T. (2002). ‘The Ecograze Project: Developing Guidelines to Better Manage Grazing Country.’ (CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems: Townsville, Qld.)

Ash A. J., McIntosh P., Cullen B., Carberry P., Stafford Smith M. (2007) Constraints and opportunities in applying seasonal climate forecasts in agriculture. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 58, 952–965.
CrossRef | open url image1

Barrows T. T., Juggins S., De Deckker P., Thiede J., Martinez J. I. (2000) Sea-surface temperatures of the southwest Pacific Ocean during the last glacial maximum. Paleoceanography 15, 95–109.
CrossRef | open url image1

Bastin G. and the ACRIS Management Committee (2008). Rangelands 2008 – Taking the pulse. Published on behalf of the ACRIS Management Committee by the National Land and Water Resources Audit, Canberra.

Botterill L. C. (2003). Beyond drought in Australia: the way forward. In: ‘Beyond Drought: People, Policy and Perspectives’. (Eds L. C. Botterill and M. Fisher.) pp. 197–207. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne.)

Bray S. G. , and Golden R. (2008). Impact of a management intervention on the greenhouse budget of a Queensland grazing business. In: ‘A Climate of Change in the Rangelands. 15th Biennial Conference’. pp. 64–67. (Australian Rangeland Society.)

Bureau of Meteorology (2008 a). ‘Trend Maps – Australia’s Climate Variability and Change.’ Available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg.

Bureau of Meteorology (2008 b). ‘Australia – Climate of Our Continent – Major Seasonal Rainfall Zones. Available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/ausclim/zones.htm

Burroughs W. (2003). ‘Climate into the 21st Century.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.)

Burrows W. H., Carter J. O., Scanlan J. C., Anderson E. R. (1990) Management of savannas for livestock production in north-east Australia: contrasts across the tree–grass continuum. Journal of Biogeography 17, 503–512.
CrossRef | open url image1

Burrows W. H., Henry B. K., Back P. V., Hoffman M. B., Tait L. J., Anderson E. R., Menke N., Danaher T., Carter J. O., McKeon G. M. (2002) Growth and carbon stock change in eucalypt woodlands in north-east Australia: ecological and greenhouse sink implications. Global Change Biology 8, 769–784.
CrossRef | open url image1

Cai W. (2006) Antarctic ozone depletion causes an intensification of the Southern Ocean super-gyre circulation. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L03712.
CrossRef | open url image1

Cai W., Cowan T. (2007) Impacts of increasing anthropogenic aerosols on the atmospheric circulation trends of the southern hemisphere: an air–sea positive feedback. Geophysical Research Letters 34, L23709.
CrossRef | open url image1

Cai W., Cowan T. (2008) Evidence of impacts from rising temperature on inflows to the Murray-Darling Basin. Geophysical Research Letters , L07701.
CrossRef | open url image1

Cai W., Whetton P. H. (2000) Evidence for a time-varying pattern of greenhouse warming in the Pacific Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters 27, 2577–2580.
CrossRef | CAS | open url image1

Cai W., Whetton P. H. (2001) A time-varying greenhouse warming pattern and the tropical-extratropical circulation linkage in the Pacific Ocean. Journal of Climate 14, 3337–3355.
CrossRef | open url image1

Cai W., Shi G., Cowan T., Bi D., Ribbe J. (2005) The response of the Southern Annular Mode, the East Australian Current and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming. Geophysical Research Letters 32, L23706.
CrossRef | open url image1

Campbell B. D., Stafford Smith D. M., Ash A. J., Fuhrer J., Gifford R. M., Hiernaux P., Howden S. M., Jones M. B., Ludwig J. A., Mandersheid R., Morgan J. A., Newton P. C. D., Nosberger J., Owensby C. E., Sousanna J. F., Tuba Z., ZuoZhong C. (2000) A synthesis of recent global change research on pasture and rangeland production: reduced uncertainties and their management implications. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 82, 39–55.
CrossRef | open url image1

Carter J. O. , Bruget D. , Hassett R. , Henry B. , Ahrens D. , et al (2003). Australian Grassland and Rangeland Assessment by Spatial Simulation (AussieGRASS). In: ‘Science for Drought, Proceedings of the National Drought Forum’. (Eds R. Stone and I. Partridge.) pp. 152–159. (Queensland Department of Primary Industries: Brisbane.)

Carter J. O. , Hall W. B. , Brook K. D. , McKeon G. M. , Day K. A. , and Paull C. J. (2000). AussieGRASS: Australian Grassland and Rangeland Assessment by Spatial Simulation. In: ‘Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems – the Australian Experience’. (Eds G. Hammer, N. Nicholls and C. Mitchell.) pp. 329–349. (Kluwer Academic Press: Dordrecht, The Netherlands.)

Carter J. , Wynn J. , and Bird M. (2004). Estimating NPP and impacts of climate change on sandy soils in Australia using a soil carbon model calibrated to measurements of soil carbon, nitrogen and carbon isotopes. In: ‘Supersoil 2004. Proceedings of the 3rd Australian New Zealand Soil Conference’. Available at: www.regional.org.au/au/asssi/

Clarke P. J., Latz P. K., Albrecht D. E. (2005) Long-term changes in semi-arid vegetation: invasion of an exotic perennial grass has larger effects than rainfall variability. Journal of Vegetation Science 16, 237–248. open url image1

Clewett J. F., Clarkson N. M. (2007) Influence of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation on climate risk and native pastures in the northern Murray-Darling Basin. Tropical Grasslands 41, 203–215. open url image1

Clewett J. F. , Clarkson N. M. , George D. A. , Ooi S. , Owens D. T. , Partridge I. J. , and Simpson G. B. (2003). ‘Rainman StreamFlow (version 4.3): a Comprehensive Climate and Streamflow Analysis Package on CD to Assess Seasonal Forecasts and Manage Climatic Risk. QI03040’. (Department of Primary Industries Queensland: Brisbane, Qld.)

Clewett J. , Clarkson N. M. , Owens D. T. , and Abrecht D. G. (1994). ‘Australian Rainman: Rainfall Information for Better Management.’ (Department of Primary Industries Queensland: Brisbane, Qld.)

Clewett J. , Cliffe N. , Drosdowsky L. , George D. , O’Sullivan D. , Paull C. , Partridge I. , and Saal R. (2000). Building knowledge and skills to use seasonal climate forecasts in property management planning. In: ‘Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems – the Australian Experience’. (Eds G. Hammer, N. Nicholls and C. Mitchell.) pp. 227–252. (Kluwer Academic Press: Dordrecht, The Netherlands.)

Clewett J. F. , Young P. D. , and Willcocks J. R. (1988). The effect of climate change on agriculture in Central Queensland. I. Rainfall variability analysis. In: ‘The Changing Climate and Central Queensland Agriculture’. (Ed. E. R. Anderson.) pp. 43–52. (Australian Institute of Agricultural Science Central Queensland Sub-branch: Emerald, Qld.)

Cobiac M. (2007). Predicting native forage production in the Victoria River District of the Northern Territory. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Adelaide, SA, Australia.

Cobon D. H., Bell K. L., Park J. N., Keogh D. U. (2008) Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland. The Rangeland Journal 30, 361–374.
CrossRef | open url image1

Cobon D. H. , Park J. N. , Bell K. L. , Watson I. W. , Fletcher W. , and Young M. (2005). Targeted seasonal climate forecasts offer more to pastoralists. In: ‘Proceedings of the 20th International Grassland Congress’. (Eds F. P. O’Mara, R. J. Wilkins, L. ‘t Mannetje, D. K. Lovett, P. A. M. Rogers and T. M. Boland.) p. 556. (Wageningen Academic Publishers: Wageningen, The Netherlands.)

Cobon D. H., Stone G. S., Carter J. O., Scanlan J. C., Toombs N. R., Zhang X., Willcocks J., McKeon G. M. (2009) The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia. The Rangeland Journal 31, 31–49. open url image1

Cobon D. H. , Toombs N. R. , and Zhang X. (2007). Climate change impacts on the sediment load for the Nogoa catchment of the Fitzroy Basin. In: ‘MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation’. pp. 853–859. (Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand) www.mssanz.org.au/MODSIM07/papers/15_s37/ClimateChangeImpact_s37_Cobon_.pdf

Commonwealth of Australia (2008). Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme: Australia’s low pollution future. White Paper, December 2008. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, ACT. Available at: www.climatechange.gov.au/whitepaper/report/index.html (Accessed 16 March 2009).

Condon R. W. (1968). Estimation of grazing capacity on arid grazing lands. In: ‘Land Evaluation: Papers of a CSIRO Symposium Organised in Cooperation with UNESCO’. (Ed. G. A. Stewart.) pp. 112–124. (CSIRO Division of Land Research: Canberra.)

Condon R. W. (1986). Recovery of catastrophic erosion in western New South Wales. In: ‘Rangelands: a Resource Under Siege’. (Eds P. J. Joss, P. W. Lynch and O. B. Williams.) p. 39. (Australian Academy of Science: Canberra.)

Condon R. W., Newman J. C., Cunningham G. M. (1969) Soil erosion and pasture degeneration in Central Australia: Part III – the assessment of grazing capacity. Journal of the Soil Conservation Service of New South Wales 25, 25–50. open url image1

Coughlan M. (1988). Seasonal climate outlooks. In: ‘The Changing Climate and Central Queensland Agriculture’. (Ed. E. R. Anderson.) pp. 17–26. (Australian Institute of Agricultural Science Central Queensland Sub-Branch: Emerald, Qld.)

Cowley R. A. , Bloomfield C. M. , Tarrant M. B. , and MacDonald N. (2008). Current levels of utilisation of pasture on extensive cattle properties in northern Australia. In: ‘Multifunctional Grasslands in a Changing World. Proceedings Addendum, Session B7. Proceedings of the International Grasslands and Rangelands Congress’. (Eds Organising Committee of 2008 IGC/IRC Conference.) (Guangdong Peoples Publishing House: Guangzhou). Available at: http://www.rangelandcongress.com/VIII%20Proceedings/B7-Cowley%20R.pdf

Crimp S. , and Day K. (2003). Evaluation of multi-decadal variability in rainfall in Queensland using indices of El Nino-Southern Oscillation and inter-decadal variability. In: ‘Science for Drought, Proceedings of the National Drought Forum’. (Eds R. Stone and I. Partridge.) pp. 106–115. (Queensland Department of Primary Industries: Brisbane.)

Crimp S. J. , Flood N. R. , Carter J. O. , Conroy J. P. , and McKeon G. M. (2002). ‘Evaluation of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Pasture Production – Implications for Livestock Carrying Capacity.’ (Australian Greenhouse Office: Canberra.)

CSIRO (2001). Climate change projections for Australia. CSIRO Atmospheric Research. Aspendale, Vic., Australia. Available at: www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/projections2001.pdf

CSIRO-BoM (2007). ‘Climate Change in Australia. Technical Report 2007.’ (Eds K. B. Pearce, P. N. Holper, M. Hopkins, W. J. Bouma, P. H. Whetton, K. J. Hennessy, and S. B. Power.) (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research: Aspendale, Vic.)

Daly J. J. (1984) Cattle need shade trees. Queensland Agricultural Journal 110, 21–24. open url image1

Davies J. G., Scott A. E., Kennedy J. F. (1938) The yield and composition of a Mitchell grass pasture for a period of twelve months. Journal of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research 11, 127–139.
CAS |
open url image1

Day K. A. , Ahrens D. G. , and McKeon G. M. (2003 a). Simulating historical droughts: some lessons for drought policy. In: ‘Science for Drought, Proceedings of the National Drought Forum’. Brisbane, April 2003. (Eds R. Stone and I. Partridge.) pp. 141–151. (Queensland Department of Primary Industries: Brisbane.)

Day K. A. , Ahrens D. G. , Peacock A. , Rickert K. G. , and McKeon G. M. (2000). Climate tools for northern grassy landscapes. In: ‘Northern Grassy Landscapes Conference’. pp. 3–97. (Tropical Savannas Cooperative Research Centre: Katherine, NT.)

Day K. A. , Callaghan J. , and Ahrens D. G. (2007). What has happened to Port Curtis rainfall? In: ‘Proceedings of the State of Port Curtis Conference’. (Eds A. Exelby, K. Wormington and A. Melzer.) pp. 122–130. (Central Queensland University’s Centre for Environmental Management: Gladstone, Qld.)

Day K. A. , Maclaurin A. R. , Dube S. , Hlatshwayo A. , and Trevor C. L. (2003 b). Capturing the benefits of seasonal climate forecasts in agricultural management: sub-project 3 – Grazing systems in Zimbabwe. Final Report for the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), Project LWR2/96/215.

Day K. A. , McKeon G. M. , and Carter J. O. (1997 a). Evaluating the risks of pasture and land degradation in native pasture in Queensland. Final Report for Rural Industries and Research Development Corporation Project DAQ124A.

Day K. A. , Rickert K. G. , and McKeon G. M. (2005). Monitoring agricultural drought in Australia. In: ‘Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought: a Global Study’. (Eds V. K. Boken, A. P. Cracknell and R. L. Heathcote.) pp. 369–385. (Oxford University Press: Oxford.)

Day K. A. , Scattini W. J. , and Osborne J. C. (1997 b). Extend carrying capacity calculations to the central Burnett region of Queensland. In: ‘DroughtPlan – Building on Grazier Participation to Manage for Climate Variability. Climate Variability Series, Occasional Paper CV01’. pp. 112–119. (Land and Water Resources Research and Development Corporation: Canberra.)

De Deckker P. , Kershaw A. P. , and Williams M. A. J. (1988). Past environmental analogues. In: ‘Greenhouse, Planning for Climate Change’. (Ed. G. I. Pearman.) pp. 473–488. (CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Physics: Melbourne.)

Donald A., Meinke H., Power B., Maia A., de H. N., Wheeler M. C., White N., Stone R., Ribbe J. (2006) Near-global impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L09704.
CrossRef | open url image1

Donnelly J. R., Moore A. D., Freer M. (1997) GRAZPLAN: Decision support systems for Australian grazing enterprises – I. Overview of the GRAZPLAN project, and a description of the MetAccess and LambAlive DSS. Agricultural Systems 54, 57–76.
CrossRef | open url image1

Donohue R. J., McVicar T. R., Roderick M. L. (2008) Climate-related changes in Australian vegetation cover as inferred from satellite observations for 1981–2006. Global Change Biology (in press). , open url image1

Drought Policy Review Expert Social Panel (2008). It’s about people: changing perspective. A report to Government by an expert social panel on dryness, report to the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Canberra. Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Canberra. Availabe at: www.daff.gov.au/agriculture-food/drought/national_review_of_drought_policy

Dyer R. , Jaclyn P. , Partridge I. , Russell-Smith J. , and Williams R. (2001). ‘Savanna Burning – Understanding and Using Fire in Northern Australia.’ (Tropical Savannas CRC: Darwin, NT.) Available at: http://savanna.cdu.edu.au/publications/savanna_burning.html

EPA (2008 a). Pasture production and condition. In: ‘State of the Environment 2007’. pp. 127–139. (Queensland Environmental Protection Agency: Brisbane.)

EPA (2008 b). Wind erosion. In: ‘State of the Environment 2007’. pp. 103–109. (Queensland Environmental Protection Agency: Brisbane.)

Fensham R. J. (1998) The influence of cattle grazing on tree mortality after drought in savanna woodland in north Queensland. Australian Journal of Ecology 23, 405–407.
CrossRef | open url image1

Fensham R. J., Holman J. E. (1999) Temporal and spatial patterns in drought related tree dieback in Australian savanna. Journal of Applied Ecology 36, 1035–1050.
CrossRef | open url image1

Fischer R. A. (1979) Growth and water limitation to dryland wheat yield in Australia: a physiological framework. The Journal of the Australian Institute of Agricultural Science 45, 83–94. open url image1

Fitzpatrick E. A. , and Nix H. A. (1970). The climatic factor in Australian grassland ecology. In: ‘Australian Grasslands’. (Ed. R. M. Moore.) pp. 1–26. (ANU Press: Canberra.)

Folland C. K. , Parker D. E. , Colman A. W. , and Washington R. (1998). Large scale modes of ocean surface temperature since the late nineteenth century. Climate Research Technical Note, CRTN 81, Hadley Centre. UK Meteorological Office, Bracknell, Berkshire, UK.

Foran B. D. (1984). Central arid woodlands. In: ‘Management of Australia’s Rangelands’. (Eds G. N. Harrington, A. D. Wilson and M. D. Young.) pp. 299–315. (CSIRO: Melbourne.)

Foran B. D., Stafford Smith D. M. (1991) Risk, biology and drought management strategies for cattle stations in central Australia. Journal of Environmental Management 33, 17–33.
CrossRef | open url image1

Fraser G. W. , and Waters D. K. (2004). Modelling runoff and erosion processes in central Queensland grazing lands. In: ‘ISCO 2004 – 13th International Soil Conservation Organisation Conference’. (Australian Society of Soil Science Inc.: Warragul, Vic.; International Erosion Control Association (Australasia), 2004: Picton, NSW.)

Friedel M. H., Foran B. D., Stafford Smith D. M. (1990) Where the creeks run dry or ten feet high: pastoral management in arid Australia. Proceedings of the Ecological Society of Australia 16, 185–194. open url image1

Friedel M. , Grice T. , Marshall N. , and van Klinken R. D. (2008). The costs and benefits of buffel grass and its management: how are they valued? In: ‘A Climate of Change in the Rangelands. 15th Biennial Conference’. pp. 132–135. (Australian Rangeland Society: Charters Towers, Qld.)

Garnaut R. (2008 a). The Garnaut climate change review: interim report to the Commonwealth, State and Territory Governments of Australia February 2008. Available at: www.garnautreview.org.au/CA25734E0016A131/WebObj/GarnautClimateChangeReviewInterimReport-Feb08/$File/Garnaut%20Climate%20Change%20Review%20Interim%20Report%20-%20Feb%2008.pdf

Garnaut R. (2008 b). ‘The Garnaut Climate Change Review: Final Report.’ (Cambridge University Press: Port Melbourne, Vic.)

George D. A., Clewett J. F., Wright A., Birch C., Allen W. (2007) Improving farmer knowledge and skills to better manage climate variability and climate change. Journal of International Agricultural and Extension Education 14, 5–19. open url image1

Gibbs W. J. , and Maher J. V. (1967). Rainfall deciles as drought indicators. Bureau of Meteorology Bulletin No. 48. Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne.

Gillard P., Moneypenny R. (1990) A decision support model to evaluate the effects of drought and stocking rate on beef cattle properties in northern Australia. Agricultural Systems 34, 37–52.
CrossRef | open url image1

Goddard L., Barnston A. G., Mason S. J. (2003) Evaluation of the IRI’S ‘net assessment seasonal climate forecasts: 1997–2001. American Meteorological Society 84, 1761–1781.
CrossRef | open url image1

Hall W. B. (1996). Near real-time financial assessment of the Queensland wool industry on a regional basis. Ph.D. Thesis, Gatton College, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.

Hall W. B., McKeon G. M., Carter J. O., Day K. A., Howden S. M., Scanlan J. C., Johnston P. W., Burrows W. H. (1998) Climate Change and Queensland’s grazing lands: II. An assessment of the impact on animal production from native pastures. The Rangeland Journal 20, 177–205.
CrossRef | open url image1

Hamilton J. S., Chilcott C. R., Savage D. B. (2008) Contemporary livestock carrying capacities for pastoral properties in Northern Australia: a methodology for integrating objective data on forage production and condition. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 48, 735–740.
CrossRef | open url image1

Hammer G. L., Woodruff D. R., Robinson J. B. (1987) Effects of climatic variability and possible climatic change on reliability of wheat cropping – a modelling approach. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 41, 123–142.
CrossRef | open url image1

Harle K. J., Howden S. M., Hunt L. P., Dunlop M. (2007) The potential impact of climate change on the Australian wool industry by 2030. Agricultural Systems 93, 61–89.
CrossRef | open url image1

Hassett R. , Carter J. , and Henry B. (2006). Rapid mobile data collection – a technique to monitor rangeland condition and provide quantitative and interpretive information for a range of applications. In: ‘The Cutting Edge. Proceedings of the 14th Biennial Conference of the Australian Rangeland Society’. pp. 202–205. (Australian Rangeland Society: Renmark, S. A.)

Hassett R. C., Wood H. L., Carter J. O., Danaher T. J. (2000) A field method for statewide ground-truthing of a spatial model. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 40, 1069–1079.
CrossRef | open url image1

Hendy E. J., Gagan M. K., Lough J. M. (2003) Chronological control of coral records using luminescent lines and evidence for non-stationary ENSO teleconnections in northeast Australia. The Holocene 13, 187–199.
CrossRef | open url image1

Hennessy K. , Fawcett R. , Kirono D. , Mpelasoka F. , Jones D. , et al. (2008). ‘An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Nature and Frequency of Exceptional Climatic Events. Drought Exceptional Circumstances.’ (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research: Aspendale, Vic.)

Henry B. K. (2006). Improved climate forecasts for wool producers in Australia’s pastoral zone. Final Report QNR30, Land, Water and Wool Climate sub-program. Available at: http://products.lwa.gov.au/files/PK071415.pdf

Henry B. K. , Carter J. O. , Day K. A. , McKeon G. M. , and Bruget D. (2004). Management of climate variability in extensive grazing systems. In: ‘Proceedings Outlook 2004 Conference’. Available at: www.abareconomics.com/publications_html/climate/climate_04/ol_climate.pdf

Henry B. K. , McKeon G. M. , Syktus J. I. , Carter J. O. , Day K. A. , and Rayner D. P. (2007). Climate variability, climate change and land degradation. In: ‘Climate and Land Degradation’. (Eds M.V. K Sivakumar and N. Ndiang’ui.) pp. 205–221. (Springer-Verlag: Berlin.)

Hewitt R. , and Murray J. (1999). South-west strategy and sustainable rangeland management – it’s about attitude. In: ‘People and Rangelands, Building the Future. Proceedings of the 6th International Rangeland Congress’. (Eds D. Eldridge and D. Freudenberger.) pp. 76–77. (6th International Rangeland Congress Inc.: Aitkenvale, Qld.)

Hodgkinson K. C. , and Cook J. D. (1995). The ecology of perennial grass collapse under grazing. In: ‘Ecological Research and Management in the Mulgalands Conference Proceedings’. (Eds M. J. Page and T. S. Beutel.) pp. 203–207. (University of Queensland: Gatton College, Qld.)

Hopkins P. S., Knights G. I., Le Feuvre A. S. (1978) Studies of the environmental physiology of tropical merinos. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 29, 161–171.
CrossRef | open url image1

Howden S. M., Crimp S. J., Stokes C. J. (2008) Climate change and its effect on Australian livestock systems. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 48, 780–788.
CrossRef | open url image1

Howden S. M. , Hall W. B. , and Bruget D. (1999 c). Heat stress and beef cattle in Australian rangelands: recent rends and climate change. In: ‘People and Rangelands, Building the Future. Proceedings of the 6th International Rangeland Congress’. (Eds D. Eldridge and D. Freudenberger.) pp. 43–44. (6th International Rangeland Congress Inc.: Aitkenvale, Qld.)

Howden S. M. , McKeon G. M. , Carter J. O. , and Beswick A. (1999 b). Potential global change impacts on C3-C4 grass distributions in eastern Australian rangelands. In: ‘People and Rangelands, Building the Future. Proceedings of the 6th International Rangeland Congress’. (Eds D. Eldridge and D. Freudenberger.) pp. 41–42. (6th International Rangeland Congress Inc.: Aitkenvale, Qld.)

Howden S. M., McKeon G. M., Walker L., Carter J. O., Conroy J. P., Day K. A., Hall W. B., Ash A. J., Ghannoum O. (1999a) Global change impacts on native pastures in south-east Queensland, Australia. Environmental Modelling & Software 14, 307–316.
CrossRef | open url image1

Howden S. M. , Stokes C. J. , Ash A. J. , and MacLeod N. D. (2003). Reducing net greenhouse gas emissions from a tropical rangeland in Australia. In: ‘Rangelands in the New Millennium. Proceedings of the 7th International Rangelands Congress’. (Eds N. Allsop, A. R. Palmer, K. P. Milton, G. I. H. Kirkman, G. I. H. Kerley, C. R. Hurt and C. J. Brown.) pp. 1080–1082. (The Congress: Durban, South Africa.)

Howden S. M. , Walker L. , McKeon G. M. , Hall W. B. , Ghannoum O. , Day K. A. , Conroy J. P. , Carter J. O. , and Ash A. J. (1998). Simulation of changes in CO2 and climate on native forage production. In: ‘Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change in Northern Australian Grazing Industries: Final report for the Rural Industries Research Development Corporation’. (Eds G. M. McKeon, J. O. Carter, K. A. Day, W. B. Hall and S. M. Howden.) pp. 141–184. (Department of Natural Resources: Brisbane.)

Howden S. M., White D. H., McKeon G. M., Scanlan J. C., Carter J. O. (1994) Methods for exploring management options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from tropical pastures. Climatic Change 27, 49–70.
CrossRef | CAS | open url image1

Hunt L. P. (2008) Safe pasture utilisation rates as a grazing management tool in extensively grazed tropical savannas of northern Australia. The Rangeland Journal 30, 305–315.
CrossRef | open url image1

Hunt L. P. , and Dawes-Gromadzki T. Z. (2008). Grazing management to maintain soil health and pasture productivity in grazed tropical savannas. In: ‘A Climate of Change in the Rangelands. 15th Biennial Conference’. pp. 185–188. (Australian Rangeland Society: Charters Towers, Qld.)

Huxman T. E., Bradford P. W., Breshears D. D., Scott R. L., Snyder K. A., Small E. E., Hultine K., Pockman W. T., Jackson R. B. (2005) Ecohydrological implications of woody plant encroachment. Ecology 86, 308–319.
CrossRef | open url image1

IPCC (2007). ‘Climate Change 2007: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.’ (Eds S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller.) pp. 1–17. (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.)

Ivory D. A., Whiteman P. C. (1978) Effect of temperature on growth of five subtropical grasses. Effect of day and night temperature on growth and morphological development. Australian Journal of Plant Physiology 5, 131–148. open url image1

Johnston P. W. , and Garrad S. W. (1999). Estimating livestock carrying capacities in south-west Queensland, Australia. In: ‘People and Rangelands, Building the Future. Proceedings of the 6th International Rangeland Congress’. (Eds D. Eldridge and D. Freudenberger.) pp. 861–862. (6th International Rangeland Congress Inc.: Aitkenvale, Qld.)

Johnston P. W. , McKeon G. M. , Buxton R. , Carter J. O. , Cobon D. H. , Day K. A. , Hall W. B. , and Scanlan J. C. (2000). Managing climatic variability in Queensland’s grazing lands – new approaches. In: ‘Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems – the Australian Experience’. (Eds G. Hammer, N. Nicholls and C. Mitchell.) pp. 197–226. (Kluwer Academic Press: Dordrecht, The Netherlands.)

Johnston P. W., McKeon G. M., Day K. A. (1996a) Objective ‘safe’ grazing capacities for south-west Queensland Australia: development of a model for individual properties. The Rangeland Journal 18, 244–258.
CrossRef | open url image1

Johnston P. W., Tannock P. R., Beale I. F. (1996b) Objective ‘safe’ grazing capacities for south–west Queensland, Australia: model application and evaluation. The Rangeland Journal 18, 259–269.
CrossRef | open url image1

Keogh D. U., Bell K. L., Park J. N., Cobon D. H. (2004) Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in western Queensland. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 44, 233–246.
CrossRef | open url image1

Keogh D. U., Watson I. W., Bell K. L., Cobon D. H., Dutta S. C. (2005) Climate information needs of Gascoyne Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 45, 1613–1625.
CrossRef | open url image1

Landsberg R. G., Ash A. J., Shepherd R. K., McKeon G. M. (1998) Learning from history to survive the future: management evolution on Trafalgar Station, north-east Queensland. The Rangeland Journal 20, 104–118.
CrossRef | open url image1

Lauder A. (2008). ‘Carbon Grazing: the Missing Link.’ (Saltbush Systems Pty Ltd: The Gap, Qld.)

Leslie J. K. (1993) Systems, stakeholders and state support. Agricultural Science 6, 421–430. open url image1

Leys J., McTainsh G., Strong C., Heidenreich S., Biesaga K. (2008) DustWatch: using community networks to improve wind erosion monitoring in Australia. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 33, 1912–1926.
CrossRef | open url image1

Mantua N. J., Hare S. R., Zhang Y., Wallace J. M., Francis R. C. (1997) A Pacific inter-decadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78, 1069–1079.
CrossRef | open url image1

Marshall G. J. (2003) Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses. Journal of Climate 16, 4134–4143.
CrossRef | open url image1

Marshall N. A. (2008). ‘Enhancing Social Resilience to Climate Variability Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts. National Research Flagships, Climate Adaptation.’ (CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystem: Townsville, Qld.)

McAlpine C. A., Syktus J., Deo R. C., Lawrence P. J., McGowan H. A., Watterson I. G., Phinn S. (2007) Modelling the impact of historical land cover change on Australia’s regional climate. Geophysical Research Letters 34, L22711.
CrossRef | open url image1

McBride J. L., Nicholls N. (1983) Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review 111, 1998–2004.
CrossRef | open url image1

McKeon G. M. (2006). Living in a variable climate. Article prepared for the 2006 Australia. State of the Environment Committee, Department of Environment and Heritage, Canberra. Available at: http://www.deh.gov.au/soe/2006/integrative/climate/index.html

McKeon G. M. , Ash A. J. , Hall W. B. , and Stafford Smith M. (2000). Simulation of grazing strategies for beef production in north-east Queensland. In: ‘Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems – the Australian Experience’. (Eds G. Hammer, N. Nicholls and C. Mitchell.) pp. 227–252. (Kluwer Academic Press: Dordrecht, The Netherlands.)

McKeon G. M. , Charles S. P. , Bates B. C. , and Hall W. B. (1998 a). Methods for evaluating climate change impacts on forage production. In: ‘Evaluation of the impact of climate change in northern Australian grazing industries: Final report for the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation’. (Eds G. M. McKeon, J. O. Carter, K. A. Day, W. B. Hall and S. M. Howden.) pp. 141–184. (Department of Natural Resources: Brisbane.)

McKeon G. M. , Chilcott C. , McGrath W. , Paton C. , Fraser G. , Stone G. S. , and Ryan J. (2008 b). Assessing the value of trees in sustainable grazing systems. Final Report on NBP.316 to Meat and Livestock Australia.

McKeon G. M., Day K. A., Howden S. M., Mott J. J., Orr D. M., Scattini W. J., Weston E. J. (1990) Northern Australian savannas: management for pastoral production. Journal of Biogeography 17, 355–372.
CrossRef | open url image1

McKeon G. M. , Flood N. , Carter J. O. , Stone G. S. , Crimp S. J. , and Howden S. M. (2008 a). Simulation of climate change impacts on livestock carrying capacity and production for the Garnaut Climate Change Review. Available at: http://www.garnautreview.org.au/CA25734E0016A131/WebObj/01-CLivestock/$File/01-C%20Livestock.pdf

McKeon G. M., Hall W. B., Crimp S. J., Howden S. M., Stone R. C., Jones D. A. (1998b) Climate change and Queensland’s grazing lands: I. Approaches and climatic trends. The Rangeland Journal 20, 151–176.
CrossRef | open url image1

McKeon G. M. , Hall W. B. , Henry B. K. , Stone G. S. , and Watson I. W. (2004). ‘Pasture Degradation and Recovery in Australia’s Rangelands: Learning From History.’ (Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy: Brisbane.)

McKeon G. M. , Howden S. M. , Abel N. O. J. , and King J. M. (1993). Climate change: adapting tropical and subtropical grasslands. In: ‘Grasslands For Our World’. (Ed. M. J. Baker.) pp. 426–435. (SIR Publishing: Wellington, New Zealand.)

McKeon G. M. , Howden S. M. , Silburn D. M. , Carter J. O. , Clewett J. F. , et al (1988). The effect of climate change on crop and pastoral production in Queensland. In: ‘Greenhouse, Planning for Climate Change’. (Ed. G. I. Pearman.) pp. 546–563. (CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Physics: Melbourne.)

McKeon G. M. , Rickert K. G. , Robbins G. B. , Scattini W. J. , and Ivory D. A. (1980). Prediction of animal performance from simple environmental variables. In: ‘Proceedings of the Fourth Biennial Conference, Simulation Society of Australia’. University of Queensland, Brisbane. pp. 9–16. (SSA-80 Convening Committee: Brisbane, Qld.)

McKeon G. M., White D. H. (1992) El Nino and better land management. Search 23, 197–200. open url image1

McKergow L. A., Prosser I. P., Hughes A. O., Brodie J. (2005) Sources of sediment to the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area. Marine Pollution Bulletin 51, 200–211.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed | open url image1

McPhaden M. J., Zhang D. (2002) Slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation in the upper Pacific Ocean. Nature 415, 603–608.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed | open url image1

McTainsh G. H., Chan Y. C., McGowan H. A., Leys J. F., Tews E. K. (2005) The 23rd October, 2002 dust storm in eastern Australia: characteristics and meteorological conditions. Atmospheric Environment 39, 1227–1236.
CrossRef | CAS | open url image1

McTainsh G. H. , and Tews E. K. (2002). Wind erosion. In: ‘State of the Environment 2007’. pp. 4.20–4.21. (Queensland Environmental Protection Agency: Brisbane.)

McVicar T. R., Van Niel T. G., Li L. T., Roderick M. L., Rayner D. P., Ricciardulli L., Donohue R. J. (2008) Wind speed climatology and trends for Australia, 1975–2006: capturing the stilling phenomenon and comparison with near-surface reanalysis output. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L20403.
CrossRef | open url image1

Meinke H., deVoil P., Hammer G. L., Power S., Allan R., Stone R. C., Folland C., Potgieter A. (2005) Rainfall variability at decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise? Journal of Climate 18, 89–96.
CrossRef | open url image1

Meinke H., Stone R. C. (2005) Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: the new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations. Climatic Change 70, 221–253.
CrossRef | open url image1

Miller K., Burns C. (2008) Suicides on farms in South Australia, 1997–2001. Australian Journal of Rural Health 16, 327–331.
CrossRef | PubMed | open url image1

MLA (2003). ‘Grazing Land Management Education Program.’ (Meat and Livestock Australia: Sydney.)

MLA (2008). ‘Climate Change, Its Effect On You.’ (Meat and Livestock Australia: Sydney.) Available at: www.mla.com.au/enviornment

Moore R. M. (1970). South-eastern temperate woodlands and grasslands. In: ‘Australian Grasslands’. (Ed. R. M. Moore.) pp. 88–92. (ANU Press: Canberra.)

Morgan J. A., Milchunas D. G., LeCain D. R., West M., Mosier A. R. (2007) Carbon dioxide enrichment alters plant growth community structure and accelerates shrub growth in the shortgrass steppe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA , 14724–14729.
CrossRef | CAS | open url image1

Morgan J. A., Pataki D. E., Korner C., Clark H., Del Grosso S. J. , et al . (2004) Water relations in grassland and desert ecosystems exposed to elevated atmospheric CO2. Oecologia 140, 11–25.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed | open url image1

National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (2008). ‘National Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2006.’ (Australian Government, Department of Climate Change: Canberra.)

Nelson R., Howden S. M., Stafford Smith M. (2008) Using adaptive governance to rethink the way science supports Australian drought policy. Environmental Science & Policy 11, 588–601.
CrossRef | open url image1

Nicholls N. (1988) More on early ENSOs: evidence from Australian documentary sources. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 69, 4–6.
CrossRef | open url image1

Nicholls N. (1991) The El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Australian vegetation. Vegetation 91, 23–36.
CrossRef | open url image1

Nicholls N. (2006) Detecting and attributing Australian climate change: a review. Australian Meteorological Magazine 55, 199–211. open url image1

Nicholls N. (2009) Local and remote causes of the southern Australian autumn-winter rainfall decline, 1958–2007. Climate Dynamics ,
CrossRef | open url image1

Noble J. C. (1997 a). ‘The Delicate and Noxious Scrub: CSIRO Studies on Native Tree and Shrub Proliferation in the Semi-Arid Woodlands of Eastern Australia.’ (CSIRO: Canberra.)

Noble J. C. (1997 b). The potential for using fire in northern Australian pastoral lands. In: ‘Fire In The Management of Northern Australian Pastoral Lands. Occasional Publication No. 8’. (Eds A. C. Grice and S. M. Slatter.) pp. 41–47. (Tropical Grassland Society of Australia: Brisbane.)

Noble J. C., Vines R. G. (1993) Fire studies in mallee (Eucalyptus spp.) communities of western New South Wales; grass fuel dynamics and associated weather patterns. The Rangeland Journal 15, 270–297.
CrossRef | open url image1

O’Reagain P. J. , Bushell J. J. , and Holloway C. H. (2008). Testing and developing grazing principles and management guidelines for the seasonably variable tropical savannas. Final report on B.NBP.0379 to Meat and Livestock Australia Meat and Livestock Australia, Sydney.

O’Reagain P. J., Bushell J. J., Holloway C. H., Reid A. (2009) Managing for rainfall variability: effect of grazing strategy on cattle production in a dry tropical savanna. Animal Production Science 49, 85–99.
CrossRef | open url image1

Orr D. M. , and Phelps D. G. (2006). Likely impacts of climate change on changes in species composition in Astrebla (Mitchell grass) pastures. In: ‘The Cutting Edge: Proceedings of the 14th Biennial Conference of The Australian Rangeland Society’. Renmark, S. Aust. (Ed. P. Erkelenz.) pp. 295–298. (Australian Rangeland Society.)

Petty S. R. (1997). Factors influencing the liveweight gain of cattle grazing irrigated leucaena-pangola pastures in NSW Australia. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Queensland, Qld., Australia.

Pickard J. (1993) Western New South Wales – increased rainfall, not a miracle, leads to recovery. Australian Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 6, 4–9. open url image1

Pittock A. B. (1975) Climatic change and the patterns of variation in Australia’s rainfall. Search 6, 498–504. open url image1

Pittock A. B. (1988). Actual and anticipated changes in Australia’s climate. In: ‘Greenhouse, Planning for Climate Change’. (Ed. G. I. Pearman.) pp. 35–51. (CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Physics: Melbourne.)

Pittock A. B. (2003). ‘Climate Change: an Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts.’ (Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of Environment and Heritage: Canberra.)

Pittock A. B. , Fowler A. M. , and Whetton P. H. (1991). Probable changes in rainfall regimes due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. In: ‘Challenges for Sustainable Development. Proceedings of the International Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium.’ pp. 182–186. (The Institution of Engineers, Australia: Canberra.)

Pollard D., Thompson S. L. (1995) Use of a land-surface-transfer scheme (LSX) in a global climate model: the response to doubling stomatal resistance. Global and Planetary Change 10, 129–161.
CrossRef | open url image1

Power S., Casey T., Folland C., Colman A., Mehta V. (1999) Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Climate Dynamics 15, 319–324.
CrossRef | open url image1

Power S. B., Smith I. N. (2007) Weakening of the Walker circulation and apparent dominance of El Niño both reach record levels, but has ENSO really changed? Geophysical Research Letters 34, L18702.
CrossRef | open url image1

Preston B. L., Jones R. N. (2008) Evaluating sources of uncertainty in Australian runoff projections. Advances in Water Resources 31, 758–775.
CrossRef | open url image1

Pringle H. J. R., Tinley K. L. (2003) Are we overlooking critical geomorphic determinants of landscape change in Australian rangelands? Ecological Management & Restoration 4, 180–186.
CrossRef | open url image1

Pringle H. J. R., Watson I. W., Tinley K. L. (2006) Landscape improvement, or ongoing degradation: reconciling apparent contradictions from the arid rangelands of Western Australia. Landscape Ecology 21, 1267–1279.
CrossRef | open url image1

Productivity Commission (2008). Government Drought Support, Draft Inquiry Report. Commonwealth of Australia, Melbourne.

Purvis J. R. (1986) Nurture the land: My philosophies of pastoral management in central Australia. Australian Rangeland Journal 8, 110–117.
CrossRef | open url image1

QCL (2008) Forecasts aid planning. Profit in a changing climate. Queensland Country Life July, 10. open url image1

Rayner D. P. (2007) Wind run changes are the dominant factor affecting pan evaporation trends in Australia. Journal of Climate 20, 3379–3394.
CrossRef | open url image1

Reynolds J. A. , and Carter J. O. (1993). What landholders reckon about woody weeds in central western Queensland. RQL93001. Queensland Department of Primary Industries, Brisbane.

Richards R. , Watson I. , Bean J. , Maconochie J. , Clipperton S. , Beeston G. , Green D. , and Hacker R. (2001). Australian grassland and rangeland assessment by spatial simulation (Aussie GRASS) Southern Pastures Sub-project. QNR9 Final Report for the Climate Variability in Agriculture Program. Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Brisbane.

Rickert K. G. , Stuth J. W. , and McKeon G. M. (2000). Modelling pasture and animal production. In: ‘Field and Laboratory Methods for Grassland and animal Production Research’. (Eds L.‘t Mannetje and R. M. Jones.) pp. 29–66. (CABI Publishing: New York.)

Risbey J. S., Pook M. J., McIntosh P. C., Wheeler M. C., Hendon H. H. (2009) On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia. Monthly Weather Review in press. , open url image1

Robertson G. (1987) Effect of drought and high summer rainfall on biomass and composition of grazed pastures in western New South Wales. Australian Rangeland Journal 9, 79–85.
CrossRef | open url image1

Roderick M. L., Rotstayn L. D., Farquhar G. D., Hobbins M. T. (2007) On the attribution of changing pan evaporation. Geophysical Research Letters 34, L17403.
CrossRef | open url image1

Roe R., Allen G. H. (1993) Studies on the Mitchell grass association in south-western Queensland. 3. Pasture and wool production under different rates of stocking and continuous or rotational grazing. The Rangeland Journal 15, 302–319.
CrossRef | open url image1

Rose C. W. (1968) Water transport in soil with a daily temperature wave. I. Theory and experiment. Australian Journal of Soil Research 6, 31–44.
CrossRef | open url image1

Rotstayn L. D., Cai W., Dix M. R., Farquhar G. D., Feng Y. , et al . (2007) Have Australian rainfall and cloudiness increased due to the remote effects of Asian anthropogenic aerosols? Journal of Geophysical Research 112, D09202.
CrossRef | open url image1

Ryan J. (2007). Combining farmer decision making with systems models for restoring multi-functional eco-hydrological systems in degraded catchments. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.

Saji N. H., Goswami B. N., Vinayachandran P. N., Yamagata T. (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401, 360–363.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed | open url image1

Sartore G.-M., Kelly B., Stain H., Albrecht G., Higginbotham N. (2008) Control, uncertainty, and expectations for the future: a qualitative study of the impact of drought on a rural Australian community. Rural and Remote Health 8, 950.
PubMed |
open url image1

Scanlan J. C., McKeon G. M., Day K. A., Mott J. J., Hinton A. W. (1994) Estimating safe carrying capacities of extensive cattle grazing properties within tropical semi-arid woodlands of north-eastern Australia. The Rangeland Journal 16, 64–76.
CrossRef | open url image1

Scanlan J. C., Pressland A. J., Myles D. J. (1996) Runoff and soil movement on mid-slopes in north–east Queensland grazed woodlands. The Rangeland Journal 18, 33–46.
CrossRef | open url image1

Scattini W. J. (1973). A model for beef cattle production from rangeland and sown pasture in south–eastern Queensland, Australia. Ph.D. Thesis, University of California, Berkeley, USA.

Scholes R. J., Archer S. R. (1997) Tree–grass interactions in savannas. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 28, 517–544.
CrossRef | open url image1

Shi G., Cai W., Cowan T., Ribbe J., Rotstayn L., Dix M. (2007) Variability and trend of north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modelling. American Meteorological Journal ,
CrossRef | open url image1

Stokes C. J. , Ash A. J. , and Holtum J. A. (2008 a). Savannas face the future: windows into a future CO2-rich world. In: ‘A Climate of Change in the Rangelands. 15th Biennial Conference’. pp. 344–347. (Australian Rangeland Society: Charters Towers, Qld.)

Stokes C. J., Ash A. J., Tibbett M., Holtum J. (2005) OzFACE: the Australian savanna free air CO2 enrichment facility and its relevance to carbon-cycling issues in a tropical savanna. Australian Journal of Botany 53, 677–687.
CrossRef | open url image1

Stokes C. J. , Howden S. M. , Gifford R. G. , Meinke H. , Bange M. , et al. (2008 b). An overview of climate change adaptation in Australian primary industries – impacts, options and priorities. Report prepared for the National Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries, Land and Water Australia, Canberra.

Stone G. , Crimp S. , Day K. , Hall W. , Henry B. , McKeon G. , Owens J. , Power S. , Syktus J. , and Watson I. (2003). Preventing the 9th degradation episode in Australia’s grazing lands. In: ‘Science for Drought, Proceedings of the National Drought Forum’. (Eds R. Stone and I. Partridge.) pp. 62–73. (Queensland Department of Primary Industries: Brisbane.)

Stone G. S. (2004). Analysis of grazing pressure from the long-term livestock records of two western Queensland pastoral properties. In: ‘Pasture Degradation and Recovery in Australia’s Rangelands: Learning from History’. (Eds G. M. McKeon, W. B. Hall, B. K. Henry, G. S. Stone and I. W. Watson.) pp. 191–235. (Department of Natural Resources Mines and Energy: Indooroopilly, Qld.)

Stone R., Hammer L., Marcussen T. (1996b) Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index. Nature 384, 252–255.
CrossRef | CAS | open url image1

Stone R., Nicholls N., Hammer G. (1996a) Frost in NE Australia: trends and influence of phases of the Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate 9, 1896–1909.
CrossRef | open url image1

Syktus J. I. (2005) Reasons for decline in eastern Australia’s rainfall. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86, 624. open url image1

Syktus J. I. , McKeon G. M. , Flood N. , Smith I. , and Goddard L. (2003). Evaluation of a dynamical seasonal climate forecast system for Queensland. In: ‘Science for Drought, Proceedings of the National Drought Forum’. (Eds R. Stone and I. Partridge.) pp. 160–173. (Queensland Department of Primary Industries: Brisbane.)

Tanner C. B. , and Sinclair T. R. (1983). Efficient water use in crop production: research or re-search? In: ‘Limitation to Efficient Water Use in Crop Production’. (Eds H. M. Taylor, W. R. Jordan and T. R. Sinclair.) pp. 1–25. (ASA, CSSA, SSSA: Madison, WI.)

Thomas D. T., Wilmot M. G., Alchin M., Masters D. G. (2008) Preliminary indications that merino sheep graze different areas on cooler days in the southern rangelands of Western Australia. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 48, 889–892.
CrossRef | open url image1

Tothill J. C. , and Gillies C. (1992). The pasture lands of northern Australia: their condition, productivity and sustainability. Occasional Publication No. 5. Tropical Grasslands Society of Australia: Brisbane.

Tupper G. , Crichton J. , Alcock D. , and Mavi H. (2001). Australian Grassland and Rangeland Assessment by Spatial Simulation (Aussie GRASS) High Rainfall Zone Temperate Pastures Sub-project. QNR9 Final Report for the Climate Variability in Agriculture Program. Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Brisbane.

Ummenhofer C. C., England M. H., McIntosh P. C., Meyers G. A., Pook M. J., Risbey J. S., Gupta S. A., Taschetto A. S. (2009) What causes Southeast Australia’s worst droughts? Geophysical Research Letters 36,
CrossRef | open url image1

WADA (2004). Gascoyne Murchison Strategy – a new lease on life. Annual Report 2003–2004. Western Australian Department of Agriculture, Carnarvon, WA.

Watson I. W., Thomas P. W. E., Fletcher W. J. (2007) The first assessment, using a monitoring system, of change in shrub and tree populations across the arid shrublands of Western Australia. The Rangeland Journal 29, 25–37.
CrossRef | open url image1

Webeck K., Pearson S. (2005) Stick-nest rat middens and a late-Holocene record of White Range, central Australia. The Holocene 15, 466–471.
CrossRef | open url image1

Wei Y. , Ruiqing G. , Xuebiao P. , and Buju L. (2008). The effect of climate change on livestock carrying capacity of Inner Mongolia. In: ‘Multifunctional Grasslands in a Changing World. Vol. 1. Proceedings of the International Grasslands and Rangelands Congress’. (Eds Organising Committee of 2008 IGC/IRC Conference.) p. 918. (Guangdong Peoples Publishing House: Guangzhou, China.)

White B. J. (1978). A simulation based evaluation of Queensland’s northern sheep industry. James Cook University, Department of Geography, Monograph Series No. 10, Townsville.

White N., Sutherst R., Hall R., Whish-Wilson P. (2003a) The vulnerability of the Australian beef industry to impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus) under climate change. Climatic Change 61, 157–190.
CrossRef | open url image1

White W. B., McKeon G. M., Syktus J. I. (2003b) Australian drought: the interference of multi-spectral global standing modes and travelling waves. International Journal of Climatology 23, 631–662.
CrossRef | open url image1

Williams A. A. J., Stone R. C. (2008) An assessment of relationships between the Australian subtropical ridge, rainfall variability, and high-latitude circulation patterns. International Journal of Climatology (in press). ,
CrossRef | open url image1

Wilson A. D. , and Harrington G. W. (1984). Grazing ecology and animal production. In: ‘Management of Australia’s Rangelands’. (Eds G. N. Harrington, A. D. Wilson, and M. D. Young.) pp. 63–77. (CSIRO: Melbourne.)

Wilson J. R. (1982). Environmental and nutritional factors affecting herbage quality. In: ‘Nutritional Limits to Animal Production From Pastures’. (Ed. J. B. Hacker.) pp. 111–131. (Commonwealth Agricultural Bureaux: Farnham Royal, UK.)

Wilson J. R., Mannetje L’ t. (1978) Senescence, digestibility and carbohydrate content of buffel grass and green panic leaves in swards. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 29, 503–516.
CrossRef | CAS | open url image1

Woodruff R. , Hales S. , Butler C. , and McMichael A. (2005). Climate change health impacts in Australia: effects of dramatic CO2 emission reductions. Report for the Australian Conservation Foundation and the Australian Medical Association. National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra.







Full Text PDF (2.7 MB) Export Citation Cited By (48)