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Models of cervical screening in the era of human papillomavirus vaccination

Karen Canfell

Cancer Epidemiology Research Unit, Cancer Council NSW, 153 Dowling Street, Woolloomooloo, NSW 2010, Australia; School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. Email:

Sexual Health 7(3) 359-367
Submitted: 15 February 2010  Accepted: 28 May 2010   Published: 19 August 2010


Epidemiologic and economic evaluation using simulation modelling can support complex policy decisions, and is an important tool in predicting the future interaction between human papillomavirus vaccination and cervical screening. Several categories of screening program evaluation are of interest, including: (1) changes to screening considered over the short term, over which the effects of vaccination should be confined to the youngest age groups (<30 years old); (2) the medium and long-term effect of vaccination on the screening program; and (3) changes to screening in context of vaccination. This review considers some of the policy questions in each category and discusses the modelling implications, with particular focus on the Australian context.

Additional keywords: Australia, Pap smear, simulation modelling.


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