Separating facts from fiction: can offshore decommissioning become a USD6.3 billion industry this decade?

Abstract

The anticipated surge in offshore decommissioning spending and activity is being driven by the Australian Government’s Deparment of Industry, Science and Resources (DISR) Offshore Resources Decommissioning Roadmap, which was released at the end of 2024. The roadmap works in conjunction with the Decommissioning Compliance Strategy 2024–2029, released by the National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority (NOPSEMA) in February 2024. NOPSEMA’s strategy in conjunction with DISR’s roadmap sets post-production targets for the removal of floating infrastructure at 12 months, well plug and abandonment at 3 years, and a maximum of 5 years for the decommissioning of all remaining structures. Rystad Energy estimates that the new strategy will guide the industry to approximately USD4 billion in offshore decommissioning expenditure from 2025–2029. However, current industry estimates see commitments are only a fraction of that at approximately USD1.7 billion. This lack of commitment is likely due to a range of supply chain bottlenecks hampering commitments, including cost inflation, limited availability of decommissioning rigs and vessels, delays in dismantling infrastructure, and approval delays from offshore environmental regulator, NOPSEMA. As outlined in this paper, managing these risks will require a range of supply chain strategies, helping the decommissioning industry realise its potential while also meeting DISRS’s targets.