Towards benchmarking the dynamically downscaled CMIP6 CORDEX-Australasia ensemble over Australia

Xiaoxuan Jiang; Emma Howard; Chun-Hsu Su; Rachael N. Isphording; Benjamin Ng; Sarah Chapman; Fei Ji; Michael Grose; Jozef Syktus; Ralph Trancoso; Marcus Thatcher; Sugata Narsey; Giovanni Di Virgilio; Jatin Kala

doi:10.1071/ES24050

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Previous Contents Vol 75(2)

Towards benchmarking the dynamically downscaled CMIP6 CORDEX-Australasia ensemble over Australia

Xiaoxuan Jiang

^A ^B ^C , Emma Howard ^D ^* , Chun-Hsu Su

^E , Rachael N. Isphording ^F ^G , Benjamin Ng ^H , Sarah Chapman

^I ^J , Fei Ji ^K , Michael Grose

^L , Jozef Syktus

^J , Ralph Trancoso ^I ^J , Marcus Thatcher ^H , Sugata Narsey

^E , Giovanni Di Virgilio ^F ^K and Jatin Kala ^M

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, Tas., Australia.

^B Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas., Australia.

^C Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas., Australia.

^D Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.

^E Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia.

^F Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

^G ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

^H CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, Vic., Australia.

^I Queensland Treasury, Queensland Government, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.

^J School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.

^K Climate & Atmospheric Science, NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

^L CSIRO Environment, Hobart, Tas., Australia.

^M School of Environmental and Conservation Sciences, Harry Butler Institute, Centre for Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Murdoch University, WA, Australia.

^* Correspondence to: emma.howard@bom.gov.au, media@bom.gov.au
Media enquiries: media@bom.gov.au

Handling Editor: Peter May

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 75, ES24050 https://doi.org/10.1071/ES24050

Submitted: 6 December 2024 Accepted: 2 May 2025 Published: 4 June 2025

© 2025 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of the Bureau of Meteorology. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY).

Abstract

This study applies a benchmarking framework to assess a 34-member ensemble of regional climate models that have dynamically downscaled Coordinated Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models over the Australasian region. Four modelling centres contributed regional climate models to this ensemble using three regional climate models (RCMs) and a total of five model configurations. The RCMs compared are the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and the Bureau Atmospheric Regional Projections for Australia (BARPA-R). Assessment is conducted over the Australian continent using a separation into four major climate zones over a 30-year historical climatological period (1985–2014). Rainfall and near-surface temperatures are compared against six benchmarks measuring mean state patterns, spatial and temporal variance, seasonal cycles, long-term trends and selected extreme indices. Benchmark thresholds are derived either from previous studies or comparison with the driving model ensemble. Major model biases vary between ensemble members and include dry biases in northern and southern Australia, winter wet biases and a persistent low bias in the winter diurnal temperature range across all the modelling centres. Daily variability at large length scales is comparable in the driving global climate model and downscaled regional climate model length scales, and long-term trends are largely determined by the driving global climate model. Overall, the ensemble was deemed to be fit for purpose for impact studies. Strengths and weaknesses of the systematic benchmarking framework used here are discussed.

Keywords: Australian climate, benchmarking, CORDEX-Australasia, CORDEX-CMIP6, model evaluation, rainfall, regional climate models, regional climate projections, temperature.

References

Abramowitz G (2005) Towards a benchmark for land surface models. Geophysical Research Letter 32, L22702.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Abramowitz G (2012) Towards a public, standardized, diagnostic benchmarking system for land surface models. Geoscientific Model Development 5, 819-827.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Ahn M-S, Gleckler PJ, Lee J, Pendergrass AG, Jakob C (2022) Benchmarking simulated precipitation variability amplitude across timescales. Journal of Climate 35, 6773-6796.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Ahn M-S, Ullrich PA, Gleckler PJ, Lee J, Ordonez AC, Pendergrass AG (2023) Evaluating precipitation distributions at regional scales: a benchmarking framework and application to CMIP5 and 6 models. Geoscientific Model Development 16, 3927-3951.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Alexander LV, Arblaster JM (2009) Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections. International Journal of Climatology 29, 417-435.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Alexander LV, Arblaster JM (2017) Historical and projected trends in temperature and precipitation extremes in Australia in observations and CMIP5. Weather and Climate Extremes 15, 34-56.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Aoun A, Pagé C, Tatainova N, Pivan X, Bärring L, Bourgault P, Gasteratos P, Irving D, bascrezee (2024) cerfacs-globc/icclim: 7.0.0. Zenodo 2024, v7.0.0.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Bador M, Boé J, Terray L, et al. (2020) Impact of higher spatial atmospheric resolution on precipitation extremes over land in global climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125, e2019JD032184.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Borowiak A, King A, Lane T (2023) The link between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and rainfall trends in northwest Australia. Geophysical Research Letters 50, e2022GL101799.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Brown JR, Colman RA, Narsey S, Moise AF (2020) Sensitivity of Australian monsoon rainfall to aerosol direct and indirect effects under a range of emission scenarios. Bureau Research Report 44. (Australian Bureau of Meteorology: Melbourne, Vic., Australia) Available at https://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-2821916623/view

Chapman S, Syktus J, Trancoso R, Thatcher M, Toombs N, Wong KK-H, Takbash A (2023) Evaluation of dynamically downscaled CMIP6-CCAM models over Australia. Earth’s Future 11, e2023EF003548.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Clarke J, Webb L, Hennessy K (2015) Chapter 2. User needs and regionalisation. In ‘Climate Change in Australia: Projections for Australia’s NRM Regions’. (Eds M Ekström, C Gerbing, M Grose, J Bhend, L Webb, J Risbey, CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology) Technical Report, pp. 13–21. (CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) Available at https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/media/ccia/2.2/cms_page_media/168/CCIA_2015_NRM_TechnicalReport_WEB.pdf

Clarke J, Grose M, Thatcher M, Hernaman V, Heady C, Round V, Rafter T, Trenham C, Wilson L (2019) Victorian Climate Projections 2019 Technical Report. (CSIRO) Available at https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/projects/victorian-climate-projections-2019/

Collier N, Hoffman FM, Lawrence DM, Keppel-Aleks G, Koven CD, Riley WJ, et al. (2018) The International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) system: design, theory, and implementation. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 10, 2731-2754.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology, and Australian Energy Market Operator (2021) ESCI Project Final report. Available at https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/media/ccia/2.2/cms_page_media/799/ESCI%20Project%20final%20report_210721.pdf [Verified 24 September 2024]

Di Virgilio G, Evans JP, Di Luca A, et al. (2020) Realised added value in dynamical downscaling of Australian climate change. Climate Dynamics 54, 4675-4692.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Di Virgilio G, Ji F, Tam E, Nishant N, Evans JP, Thomas C, et al. (2022) Selecting CMIP6 GCMs for CORDEX dynamical downscaling: model performance, independence, and climate change signals. Earth’s Future 10, e2021EF002625.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Di Virgilio G, Ji F, Tam E, Evans JP, Kala J, Andrys J, Thomas C, Choudhury D, Rocha C, Li Y, Riley ML (2025a) Evaluation of CORDEX ERA5-forced NARCliM2.0 regional climate models over Australia using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.1.2. Geoscientific Model Development 18, 703-724.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Di Virgilio G, Evans JP, Ji F, Tam E, Kala J, Andrys J, Thomas C, Choudhury D, Rocha C, White S, Li Y, El Rafei M, Goyal R, Riley ML, Lingala J (2025b) Design, evaluation, and future projections of the NARCliM2.0 CORDEX-CMIP6 Australasia regional climate ensemble. Geoscientific Model Development 18, 671-702.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Evans JP, Ji F, Lee C, Smith P, Argüeso D, Fita L (2014) Design of a regional climate modelling projection ensemble experiment – NARCliM. Geoscientific Model Development 7, 621-629.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Evans JP, Di Virgilio G, Hirsch AL, et al. (2021) The CORDEX-Australasia ensemble: evaluation and future projections. Climate Dynamics 57, 1385-1401.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Eyring V, Bony S, Meehl GA, Senior CA, Stevens B, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2016) Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geoscientific Model Development 9, 1937-1958.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Eyring V, Bock L, Lauer A, Righi M, Schlund M, Andela B, Arnone E, Bellprat O, Brötz B, Caron L-P, Carvalhais N, Cionni I, Cortesi N, Crezee B, Davin EL, Davini P, Debeire K, de Mora L, Deser C, Docquier D, Earnshaw P, Ehbrecht C, Gier BK, Gonzalez-Reviriego N, Goodman P, Hagemann S, Hardiman S, Hassler B, Hunter A, Kadow C, Kindermann S, Koirala S, Koldunov N, Lejeune Q, Lembo V, Lovato T, Lucarini V, Massonnet F, Müller B, Pandde A, Pérez-Zanón N, Phillips A, Predoi V, Russell J, Sellar A, Serva F, Stacke T, Swaminathan R, Torralba V, Vegas-Regidor J, von Hardenberg J, Weigel K, Zimmermann K (2020) Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – an extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP. Geoscientific Model Development 13, 3383-3438.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Fahrenbach NLS, Bollasina MA, Samset BH, Cowan T, Ekman AML (2024) Asian anthropogenic aerosol forcing played a key role in the multidecadal increase in Australian summer monsoon rainfall. Journal of Climate 37, 895-911.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Fiedler S, Crueger T, D’Agostino R, et al. (2020) Simulated tropical precipitation assessed across three major phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Monthly Weather Review 148, 3653-3680.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Flato G, Marotzke J, Abiodun B, et al. (2013) Evaluation of climate models. In ‘Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’. (Eds TF Stocker et al.) pp. 753–759. (Cambridge University Press) Available at https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf

Gates WL (1992) AMIP: the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 73, 1962-1970.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Giorgi F (2019) Thirty years of regional climate modeling: where are we and where are we going next? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 124, 2018JD030094.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Giorgi F, Coppola E, Jacob D, Teichmann C, Omar SA, Ashfaq M, Ban N, Bülow K, Bukovsky M, Buntemeyer L, Cavazos T, Ciarlo‘ J, da Rocha RP, Das S, di Sante F, Evans JP, Gao X, Giuliani G, Glazer RH, Hoffmann P, Im E-S, Langendijk G, Lierhammer L, Llopart M, Mueller S, Luna-Nino R, Nogherotto R, Pichelli E, Raffaele F, Reboita M, Rechid D, Remedio A, Remke T, Sawadogo W, Sieck K, Torres-Alavez JA, Weber T (2021) The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I Initiative: description and highlight results from the initial analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103, E293-E310.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Grose MR, Risbey JS, Moise AF, Osbrough S, Heady C, Wilson L, Erwin T (2017) Constraints on southern Australian rainfall change based on atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 simulations. Journal of Climate 30, 225-242.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Grose MR, Foster S, Risbey JS, Osbrough S, Wilson L (2019) Using indices of atmospheric circulation to refine southern Australian winter rainfall climate projections. Climate Dynamics 53, 5481-5493.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Grose MR, Narsey S, Trancoso R, Mackallah C, Delage F, Dowdy A, Di Virgilio G, Watterson I, Dobrohotoff P, Rashid HA, Rauniyar S, Henley B, Thatcher M, Syktus S, Abramowitz G, Evans JP, Su C, Takbash A (2023) A CMIP6-based multi-model downscaling ensemble to underpin climate change services in Australia. Climate Services 20, 100368.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Gutiérrez JM, Jones RG, Narisma GT, Alves LM, Amjad M, Gorodetskaya IV, Grose M, Klutse NAB, Krakovska S, Li J, Martínez-Castro D, Mearns LO, Mernild SH, Ngo-Duc T, van den Hurk B, Yoon J-H (2021) Atlas. In ‘Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’. (Eds V Masson-Delmotte, P Zhai, A Pirani, SL Connors, C Péan, S Berger, N Caud, Y Chen, L Goldfarb, MI Gomis, M Huang, K Leitzell, E Lonnoy, JBR Matthews, TK Maycock, T Waterfield, O Yelekçi, R Yu, B Zhou) pp. 1927–2058. (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; and New York, NY, USA) 10.1017/9781009157896.021

Gutowski WJ, Jr, Giorgi F, Timbal B, Frigon A, Jacob D, Kang HS, Raghavan K, Lee B, Lennard C, Nikulin G, O’Rourke E, Rixen M, Solman S, Stephenson T, Tangang F (2016) WCRP Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX): a diagnostic MIP for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development 9, 4087-4095.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Haarsma RJ, Roberts MJ, Vidale PL, Senior CA, Bellucci A, Bao Q, Chang P, Corti S, Fučkar NS, Guemas V, von Hardenberg J, Hazeleger W, Kodama C, Koenigk T, Leung LR, Lu J, Luo JJ, Mao J, Mizielinski MS, Mizuta R, Nobre P, Satoh M, Scoccimarro E, Semmler T, Small J, von Storch JS (2016) High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development 9, 4185-4208.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Harris IC, Jones PD (2019) CRU TS4.02: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) version 4.02 of high-resolution gridded data of month-by-month variation in climate (Jan. 1901–Dec. 2017). 1 April 2019. (University of East Anglia, Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, Climatic Research Unit) 10.5285/b2f81914257c4188b181a4d8b0a46bff

Hoffmann P, Katzfey JJ, McGregor JL, Thatcher M (2016) Bias and variance correction of sea surface temperatures used for dynamical downscaling. Journal of Geophysical Research 121, 12877-12890.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Howard E, Su C-H, Stassen C, Naha R, Ye H, Pepler A, Bell SS, Dowdy AJ, Tucker SO, Franklin C (2024) Performance and process-based evaluation of the BARPA-R Australasian regional climate model version 1. Geoscientific Model Development 17, 731-757.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Huffman G, Bolvin D, Braithwaite D, Hsu K, Joyce R, Xie P (2018) Global Precipitation Measurements (GPM) Integrated multi-satellite retrievals (IMERG) L3 half hourly 0.1 degree×0.1 degree v5., Technical report. (NASA) Available at https://docserver.gesdisc.eosdis.nasa.gov/public/project/GPM/IMERG_ATBD_V5.pdf [Verified 19 May 2025]

Isphording RN, Alexander LV, Bador M, Green D, Evans JP, Wales S (2024a) A standardized benchmarking framework to assess downscaled precipitation simulations. Journal of Climate 37, 1089-1110.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Isphording RN, Alexander LV, Bador M (2024b) Benchmarking historical model performance increases confidence in regional precipitation projections. ESS Open Archive [Preprint, published 28 September 2024].
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Ji F, Ekström M, Evans JP, Teng J (2014) Evaluating rainfall patterns using physics scheme ensembles from a regional atmospheric model. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 115, 297-304.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Ji F, Di Virgilio G, Nishant N, Tam E, Evans JP, Kala J, Andrys J, Thomas C, Riley M (2024) Evaluation of precipitation extremes in ERA5-driven regional climate simulations over the CORDEX-Australasia domain. Weather and Climate Extremes 44, 100676.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Jiang X, Howard E, Isphording R, Ng B (2024) Towards benchmarking the dynamically downscaled CMIP6 CORDEX-Australasia ensemble over Australia: code and dashboard. Zenodo 2024, v1.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Jones DA, Wang W, Fawcett R (2009) High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 58, 233-248.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Liu YL, Alexander LV, Evans JP, Thatcher M (2024) Sensitivity of Australian rainfall to driving SST data sets in a variable-resolution global atmospheric model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 129, e2024JD040954.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Martinez-Villalobos C, Neelin JD, Pendergrass AG (2022) Metrics for evaluating CMIP6 representation of daily precipitation probability distributions. Journal of Climate 35, 5719-5743.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

McKay RC, Boschat G, Rudeva I, Pepler A, Purich A, Dowdy A, Hope P, Gillett ZE, Rauniyar S (2023) Can southern Australian rainfall decline be explained? A review of possible drivers. WIREs Climate Change 14, e820.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Meyer JDD, Wang S-YS, Gillies RR, Yoon J-H (2021) Evaluating NA-CORDEX historical performance and future change of western US precipitation patterns and modes of variability. International Journal of Climatology 41, 4509-4532.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Moise A, Wilson L, Grose M, Whetton P, Watterson I, Bhend J, Bathols J, Hanson L, Erwin T, Bedin T, Heady C, Rafter T (2015) Evaluation of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models over the Australian region to inform confidence in projections. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 65, 19-53.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Munday C, Washington R (2018) Systematic climate model rainfall biases over southern Africa: links to moisture circulation and topography. Journal of Climate 31, 7533-7548.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Nicholls N, Drosdowsky W, Lavery B (1997) Australian rainfall variability and change. Weather 52, 66-72.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Nishant N, Evans JP, Di Virgilio G, Downes SM, Ji F, Cheung KKW, Tam E, Miller J, Beyer K, Riley ML (2021) Introducing NARCliM1.5: evaluating the performance of regional climate projections for southeast Australia for 1950–2100. Earth’s Future 9, e2020EF00183.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Nishant N, Sherwood S, Prasad A, Ji F, Singh A (2022) Impact of higher spatial resolution on precipitation properties over Australia. Geophysical Research Letters 49, e2022GL100717.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Nguyen PL, Alexander LV, Thatcher MJ, Truong SCH, Isphording RN, McGregor JL (2024) Selecting CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) for Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) dynamical downscaling over southeast Asia using a standardised benchmarking framework. Geoscientific Model Development 17, 7285-7315.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Pagé C, Aoun A, Spinuso A (2022) icclim: calculating climate indices and indicators made easy. ESS Open Archive [Preprint, published 28 January 2022].
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Perkins SE, Pitman AJ, Holbrook NJ, McAneney J (2007) Evaluation of the AR4 climate models’ simulated daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation over Australia using probability density functions. Journal of Climate 20, 4356-4376.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Pinto I, Jack C, Hewitson B (2018) Process-based model evaluation and projections over southern Africa from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. International Journal of Climatology 38, 4251-4261.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Rahimi S, Huang L, Norris J, Hall A, Goldenson N, Risser M, et al. (2024) Understanding the cascade: removing GCM biases improves dynamically downscaled climate projections. Geophysical Research Letters 51, e2023GL106264.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Rauniyar SP, Hope P, Power SB, Grose M, Jones D (2023) The role of internal variability and external forcing on southwestern Australian rainfall: prospects for very wet or dry years. Scientific Reports 13, 21578.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Raut BA, Jakob C, Reeder MJ (2014) Rainfall changes over southwestern Australia and their relationship to the Southern Annular Mode and ENSO. Journal of Climate 27, 5801-5814.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (2021) European Climate Assessment and Dataset. (KNMI) Available at https://knmi-ecad-assets-prd.s3.amazonaws.com/documents/atbd.pdf [Verified 26 September 2024]

Schroeter BJE, Ng B, Takbash A, Rafter T, Thatcher M (2024) A comprehensive evaluation of mean and extreme climate for the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 63, 997-1018.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Sekizawa S, Nakamura H, Kosaka Y (2023) Interannual variability of the Australian summer monsoon sustained through internal processes: wind–evaporation feedback, dynamical air–sea interaction, and soil moisture memory. Journal of Climate 36, 983-1000.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Sen PK (1968)) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association 63, 1379-1389.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Bronaugh D (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118, 1716-1733.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Simpson IR, McKinnon KA, Davenport FV, Tingley M, Lehner F, Fahad A, Chen DI (2021) Emergent constraints on the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional hydroclimate: do they still work in CMIP6 and how much can they actually constrain the future? Journal of Climate 34, 6355-6377.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Liu Z, Berner J, Wang W, Powers JG, Duda MG, Barker DM, Huang XY (2019) A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 4. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-556+STR, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA. 10.5065/1dfh-6p97

Su C-H, Stassen C, Howard E, Ye H, Bell SS, Pepler A, Dowdy AJ, Tucker SO, Franklin C (2022) BARPA: new development of ACCESS-based regional climate modelling for Australian Climate Service. Bureau Research Report 069. (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) Available at http://www.bom.gov.au/research/publications/researchreports/BRR-069.pdf

Taylor KE (2001) Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. Journal of Geophysical Research 106, 7183-7192.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Thatcher M, McGregor JL (2009) Using a scale-selective filter for dynamical downscaling with the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model. Monthly Weather Review 137, 1742-1752.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Thatcher M, McGregor J, Dix M, Katzfey J (2015) A new approach for coupled regional climate modeling using more than 10,000 cores. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology 448, 599-607.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Theil H (1950) A Rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis I, II and III. Nederlandse Akademie van Wetenschappen Proceedings 53, 386-392, 521–525, 1397–1412.
| Google Scholar |

Tucker SO, Kendon EJ, Bellouin N, Buonomo E, Johnson B, Murphy JM (2022) Evaluation of a new 12-km regional perturbed parameter ensemble over Europe. Climate Dynamics 58, 879-903.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

United States Department of Energy (2020) Benchmarking simulated precipitation in Earth system models. Workshop Report DOE/SC-0203. (US DOE, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research Program: Germantown, MD, USA) Available at science.osti.gov/-/media/ber/pdf/community-resources/2020/RGMA_Precip_Metrics_workshop.pdf [Verified 7 April 2025]

Vautard R, Kadygrov N, Iles C, Boberg F, Buonomo E, Bülow K, et al. (2021) Evaluation of the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126, e2019JD032344.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Vogel E, Johnson F, Marshall L, Bende-Michl U, Wilson L, Peter JR, Wasko C, Srikanthan S, Sharples W, Dowdy A, Hope P, Khan Z, Mehrotra R, Sharma A, Matic V, Oke A, Turner M, Thomas S, Donnelly C, Duong VC (2023) An evaluation framework for downscaling and bias correction in climate change impact studies. Journal of Hydrology 622, 129693.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Walters D, Baran AJ, Boutle I, Brooks M, Earnshaw P, Edwards J, Furtado K, Hill P, Lock A, Manners J, Morcrette C, Mulcahy J, Sanchez C, Smith C, Stratton R, Tennant W, Tomassini L, Van Weverberg K, Vosper S, Willett M, Browse J, Bushell A, Carslaw K, Dalvi M, Essery R, Gedney N, Hardiman S, Johnson B, Johnson C, Jones A, Jones C, Mann G, Milton S, Rumbold H, Sellar A, Ujiie M, Whitall M, Williams K, Zerroukat M (2019) The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 7.0/7.1 and JULES Global Land 7.0 configurations. Geoscientific Model Development 12, 1909-1963.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Wehner M, Lee J, Risser M, Ullrich P, Gleckler P, Collins WD (2021) Evaluation of extreme sub-daily precipitation in high-resolution global climate model simulations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society – A. Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 379, 20190545.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Wilson L, Bende-Michl U, Sharples W, Vogel E, Peter J, Srikanthan S, Khan Z, Matic V, Oke A, Turner M, Duong VC, Loh S, Baron-Hay S, Roussis J, Kociuba G, Hope P, Dowdy A, Donnelly C, Argent R, Thomas S, Kitsios A, Bellhouse J (2022) A national hydrological projections service for Australia. Climate Services 18, 100331.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |