Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science publishes broad areas of research with a distinct emphasis of the Southern Hemisphere. The scope of the journal encompasses the study of the mean state, variability and change of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface, including the cryosphere, from hemispheric to regional scales. Read more about the journalMore

Editor-in-Chief: Steven Siems

Editors: Peter May and Andréa Taschetto

Publishing Model: Open Access

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Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science is published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology [external link] in association with the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Societ y [external link]

Latest

These articles are the latest published in the journal. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science is published under a continuous publication model. More information is available on our Continuous Publication page.

Published online 08 July 2025

ES24047Seasonal sea level forecasts for the Australian coast

Ryan M. Holmes

, Grant A. Smith

and Claire M. Spillman

Seasonal variations in coastal sea level associated with climate variability such as El Niño are known to influence the frequency of coastal flooding around Australia. In this article we show that, using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal prediction system ACCESS-S2, seasonal coastal sea level variations can be forecast accurately up to 8 months ahead of time. These seasonal forecasts will form an important component of an early warning system under development to improve community resilience to coastal flooding hazards.

ES24047 Abstract | ES24047 Full Text | ES24047PDF (7.9 MB) | ES24047Supplementary Material (1.1 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 27 June 2025

ES25010The Australian wave forecast system with statistical wind correction

Stefan Zieger

The Bureau of Meteorology provides vital marine services that strongly depend on guidance from a suite of numerical weather prediction models. These models have vastly improved skill because of increased resolution, enhanced data assimilation (increasing numbers and types of observations), and improved physical parameterisations – and are verified against satellite and wave buoy observations. Compared to the legacy wave model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast reanalysis ERA5, the Bureau’s global wave forecast system shows increased skill.

ES25010 Abstract | ES25010 Full Text | ES25010PDF (10.4 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 27 June 2025

ES25005Diverse impact of 2023 El Niño on weather patterns over the Indonesian Maritime Continent

Sanaullah Zehri

, Erma Yulihastin

, Fiolenta Marpaung

, Agung Adiputra, Mushoddik

, Narizka Nanda Purwadani

and Gammamerdianti

The 2023 El Niño significantly affected weather patterns across the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC). Using ERA5 data, this study analyses these effects. Findings reveal that, while the northern IMC exhibited increased rainfall due to the warming of the South China Sea, the southern IMC experienced severe drought exacerbated by the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and weakened easterly winds. This study improves understanding of the diverse impact of El Niño on intraseasonal weather to enhance seasonal climate predictions over the IMC.

ES25005 Abstract | ES25005 Full Text | ES25005PDF (8 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 17 June 2025

ES24039Sea level trajectories and recent records at Australian tide gauges

Ben S. Hague

, David A. Jones, Jason West

and Dörte Jakob

Record floods and record mean sea levels are occurring more often than would be expected if sea level rise was not occurring. Our results imply that higher sea-level rise scenarios are most consistent with the continuation of recent trends.

ES24039 Abstract | ES24039 Full Text | ES24039PDF (1.6 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 04 June 2025

ES24050Towards benchmarking the dynamically downscaled CMIP6 CORDEX-Australasia ensemble over Australia

Xiaoxuan Jiang

, Emma Howard, Chun-Hsu Su

, Rachael N. Isphording, Benjamin Ng, Sarah Chapman

, Fei Ji, Michael Grose

, Jozef Syktus

, Ralph Trancoso, Marcus Thatcher, Sugata Narsey

, Giovanni Di Virgilio and Jatin Kala

Regional high-resolution climate models (RCMs) provide insights for assessing future climate hazards and risks. Determining the ability of RCMs to simulate present day rainfall and temperatures is critical to inform model use. We apply a novel benchmarking framework to assess RCMs’ ability to simulate Australia’s current climate. Across latest projections produced by four modelling centres, no climate simulation consistently fails the majority of benchmarks. We conclude that the full multi-model ensemble is fit for use in the Australian region.

ES24050 Abstract | ES24050 Full Text | ES24050PDF (8 MB) | ES24050Supplementary Material (2.4 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 03 June 2025

ES24030Synoptic structure of severe Zonda downslope windstorms in Argentina

Federico Otero

, Diego Araneo and Maximiliano Viale

Severe Zonda windstorms in Argentina produce intense, gusty, warm and dry conditions that result in significant socioeconomic impacts. This study examines the atmospheric dynamics driving long-duration severe events, highlighting the role of stronger pressure systems, enhanced upper- and lower-level winds and more intense cross-Andes flow. These findings enhance our understanding of severe Zonda windstorms and provide insights that could improve weather forecasting and help mitigate their impacts on affected communities.

ES24030 Abstract | ES24030 Full Text | ES24030PDF (11.6 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 29 May 2025

ES21010_COCorrigendum to: Circular Flip-Flop Index: quantifying revision stability of forecasts of direction

Deryn Griffiths, Nicholas Loveday, Benjamin Price, Michael Foley and Alistair McKelvie

ES21010_CO Full Text | ES21010_COPDF (717 KB) Open Access Article

Published online 20 May 2025

ES24041Evaluation of near-surface atmospheric composition reanalysis data in the metropolis of São Paulo, Brazil

Marina S. Paiva, Marco A. Franco and Luciana V. Rizzo

Air pollution is unequally monitored in Brazil, despite its relevance and health impacts. Global atmospheric model estimates can fill this lack of data after validation against air pollution observations. This study evaluates two global models and finds that one of them reproduces the seasonal variation of air pollution in the metropolis of São Paulo. After the necessary corrections, model estimates can be used to assess air pollution conditions in regions where direct observations are absent.

ES24041 Abstract | ES24041 Full Text | ES24041PDF (3.3 MB) | ES24041Supplementary Material (1.3 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 30 April 2025

ES24052Probabilistic forecasts of extreme wind gusts

Paul Fox-Hughes

and Alex Melitsis

Two extreme wind case studies in Tasmania are investigated. The efficacy of a probabilistic wind gust diagnostic, based on ACCESS-CE model output, is assessed in each case. For these events, the diagnostic was found to usefully summarise model information about the timing, intensity and extent of the extreme winds.

ES24052 Abstract | ES24052 Full Text | ES24052 Full Text | ES24052PDF (6.3 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 14 April 2025

ES23026Utilisation of local emission inventory data for forecasting PM₁₀ using the WRF-Chem model in the Bandung Basin

Prawira Yudha Kombara

, Alvin Pratama, Nani Cholianawati, Ninong Komala and Dessy Gusnita

Predicting PM₁₀ is crucial in addressing air pollution in large cities such as Bandung. The WRF-Chem model, commonly used with global emission data, can potentially provide better predictions with regional emission data. Here, we show that although the model ran successfully with regional data, the predictions contain significant errors, suggesting it cannot yet accurately predict PM₁₀ in the Bandung Basin.

ES23026 Abstract | ES23026 Full Text | ES23026PDF (4.3 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 19 March 2025

ES23030Increased stratification intensifies surface marine heatwaves north-east of Aotearoa New Zealand in New Zealand’s Earth System model

Liv Cornelissen

, Erik Behrens, Denise Fernandez and Philip J. H. Sutton

We found that the main drivers of projected intensified surface marine heatwaves north-east of New Zealand are changes in the vertical distribution of heat transport and increased stratification, trapping heat near the ocean surface, and heat convergence within the region increasing in parallel with higher greenhouse gas emissions. This explains why the surface and shallow subsurface heating is projected to become more intense, and enables a more nuanced ecosystem vulnerability assessment in relation to marine heatwaves.

ES23030 Abstract | ES23030 Full Text | ES23030PDF (3.9 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 18 March 2025

ES24010Sydney downslope windstorm event on 31 October 2023

Jiwon Park

South-western suburbs of Sydney were affected by 3–4 h of sustained strong westerly winds during the early morning on 31 October 2023 due to a dynamically driven downslope windstorm of moderate strength, which resulted in 425 State Emergency Service (SES) jobs in the aftermath. This paper looks into the observations and computer model outputs during the event to identify the unique mesoscale features seen and analyse the mechanisms that led to the windstorm.

ES24010 Abstract | ES24010 Full Text | ES24010PDF (11.7 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 18 March 2025

ES24038Interpretation of seasonal fire outlooks

Naomi Benger

, Paul Gregory

and Paul Fox-Hughes

Fire agencies use climate outlook products to assist in seasonal preparedness, but products are not all created in the same way, which can lead to conflicting information on potential risks for the upcoming season. This work compares the foundations of the Bureau of Meteorology’s temperature and rainfall outlooks with the Fire Danger Outlooks. In providing an understanding of product differences, increased literacy and ultimately trust will lead to better application of climate outlook products for operational strategic planning.

ES24038 Abstract | ES24038 Full Text | ES24038PDF (2 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 18 March 2025

ES24028Validation of BARRA2 and comparison with MERRA-2 and ERA5 using historical wind power generation

Graham Palmer

, Roger Dargaville, Chun-Hsu Su

, Changlong Wang, Andrew Hoadley and Damon Honnery

Energy system modelling is a crucial component of planning for the decarbonisation of energy supply. By incorporating meteorological data, such as historical wind speeds across space and time, these models can simulate wind power generation. However, it is essential to quantify the accuracy and confidence of these models to ensure their reliability and effectiveness.

ES24028 Abstract | ES24028 Full Text | ES24028PDF (2.1 MB) Open Access Article

Published online 16 January 2025

ES24013Comparison of temperature and humidity measurements from two separate weather stations at Camden Airport, Australia

Matthew L. Riley

This study compares over 1 million 1-min near surface air temperature (n = 516,334) and relative humidity (n = 516,717) measurements from two separate, distinct, weather stations at Camden Airport (NSW), Australia. The analysis shows that for most circumstances the measurements at the two stations can be considered equivalent, with mean annual, seasonal and diurnal biases well within the expanded instrument uncertainty. Urban climatologists, modellers and forecasters can use meteorological observations from the NSW air quality networks in their research and operations with confidence.

ES24013 Abstract | ES24013 Full Text | ES24013PDF (3.8 MB) Open Access Article