Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science

Current Issue

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science

Volume 73 Number 1 2023

ES22012The effect of water currents on wind drag – a case study of tidal currents and sea breeze in a semi-enclosed embayment

S. M. Thurgate

pp. 1-16

The influence water currents have on wind speeds was investigated for Shark Bay, Western Australia. It was shown that the standard weather forecasting program, the WRF, overestimates strong winds when the tide is incoming. It is proposed that this is due to the higher waves generated when the tidal current opposes the prevailing wind. Improvements to the model would involve taking this effect into account.

ES22012 Abstract  |  ES22012 Full Text  | ES22012PDF (3.8 MB)   Open Access Article

ES22015ACCESS-CM2-Chem: evaluation of southern hemisphere ozone and its effect on the Southern Annular Mode

Fraser Dennison and Matthew T. Woodhouse

pp. 17-29

Atmospheric chemistry is an important component of the climate system – particularly in the southern hemisphere where the ozone hole has been present for many decades. Simulations of ozone by climate models that incorporate chemistry have had mixed results; however, in this paper we show that our model simulates ozone depletion very well. Accurate chemistry–climate models will be crucial in projections of future climate, allowing us to investigate the interplay between the recovery of the ozone layer and greenhouse gas driven warming.

ES22015 Abstract  |  ES22015 Full Text  | ES22015PDF (3.1 MB)   Open Access Article

ES22018Australian climate warming: observed change from 1850 and global temperature targets

Michael R. Grose , Ghyslaine Boschat, Blair Trewin , Vanessa Round, Linden Ashcroft, Andrew D. King, Sugata Narsey and Edward Hawkins

pp. 30-43

The climate is unequivocally warming, and the amount of warming since the pre-industrial era is now a key metric of climate change, including the 1.5 and 2°C targets specified in the Paris Agreement. This paper lays out our best estimates of how much Australia has warmed since pre-industrial, and how it is projected to warm under future scenarios.

ES22018 Abstract  |  ES22018 Full Text  | ES22018PDF (2.1 MB)   Open Access Article

ES22027Indigenous Knowledge of seasons delivers a new way of considering annual cycles in atmospheric dispersion of pollutants

Stephanie Beaupark , Élise-Andrée Guérette , Clare Paton-Walsh , Les Bursill, Scott D. Chambers, Lexodius Dadd, Maddison Miller, Christopher Tobin, Marcus Hughes and Emma Woodward

pp. 44-59

The traditional seasons of summer, autumn, winter and spring are a poor match to actual weather patterns in the Sydney Basin. Indigenous Knowledge, historical weather data and a statistical clustering technique were used to identify a more-appropriate set of pseudo-seasons. These were better able to identify times of the year when poor air quality was likely in the Sydney Basin. (Image design by Stephanie Beaupark.)

ES22027 Abstract  |  ES22027 Full Text  | ES22027PDF (3.1 MB)  | ES22027Supplementary Material (400 KB)   Open Access Article

ES22002A wave-driven surface circulation feature in Table Bay

Marc de Vos , Marcello Vichi and Christo Rautenbach

pp. 60-76

Table Bay is one of the busiest and most important coastal areas in South Africa. In this study, we describe a novel aspect of the surface currents in the bay, showing it to be driven by large wave events, and able to modify the expected currents significantly. These surface currents have important implications for applications such as search and rescue, affecting the trajectories of drifting targets, for example.

ES22002 Abstract  |  ES22002 Full Text  | ES22002PDF (4.5 MB)   Open Access Article

ES22034Impacts of ENSO on Australian rainfall: what not to expect

Carly R. Tozer , James S. Risbey , Didier P. Monselesan, Mike J. Pook, Damien Irving, Nandini Ramesh , Jyoteeshkumar Reddy and Dougal T. Squire

pp. 77-81

We show that for eastern Australia as a whole, La Niña approximately doubles the chance of a wet spring whereas El Niño events double the chance of a dry spring. However, for individual locations in eastern Australia, including the eastern seaboard, we find that La Niña or El Niño events do not markedly change the normal odds of wet or dry conditions, suggesting that they are not strong indicators of wet and dry springs in all parts of eastern Australia.

ES22034 Abstract  |  ES22034 Full Text  | ES22034PDF (1.8 MB)   Open Access Article

Online Early

The peer-reviewed and edited version of record published online before inclusion in an issue

Published online 24 May 2023

ES22036The effect of tidal range and mean sea-level changes on coastal flood hazards at Lakes Entrance, south-east Australia

Ben S. Hague , Rodger B. Grayson, Stefan A. Talke, Mitchell T. Black and Dörte Jakob

 

Coastal floods are known to become increasingly frequent as sea-level rise increases the height around which daily tides rise and fall. In this study, we find that changes in the heights of tides that have led to much more frequent flooding in Lakes Entrance than would expected due to sea level rise alone. The first study of its kind for Australia, this research highlights the need for further work on defining impact-based thresholds and understanding how tides and other drivers of sea level change (other than sea-level rise) are changing flood hazards.

ES22036 Abstract  |  ES22036 Full Text  | ES22036PDF (3.3 MB)  | ES22036Supplementary Material (257 KB)   Open Access Article

Published online 11 May 2023

ES22029Seasonal climate summary for the southern hemisphere (summer 2019–20): a summer of extremes

Naomi Benger and Bernard Chapman

 

A summary of the southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation patterns and meteorological indices for summer 2019–20. Conditions were extreme across the southern hemisphere, with notable drought conditions persisting from spring over large parts of South America. Unprecedented extremes for Australia included many heat and fire weather extremes. Temperature anomalies for land and ocean areas of the southern hemisphere were third and second highest respectively on record.

ES22029 Abstract  |  ES22029 Full Text  | ES22029PDF (7.7 MB)   Open Access Article

Published online 10 May 2023

ES22033Determining the height of deep volcanic eruptions over the tropical western Pacific with Himawari-8

Chris Lucas

 

Clouds from volcanic eruptions that reach the upper troposphere and stratosphere can create significant aviation hazards on periods of days to weeks and possibly affect the global climate for up to a year or longer. A key variable for understanding and forecasting these effects is the height that the volcanic cloud reaches, which is often difficult to estimate. This work refines existing techniques to create a straightforward method that accurately estimates the height of these eruptions.

ES22033 Abstract  |  ES22033 Full Text  | ES22033PDF (2.9 MB)   Open Access Article

Just Accepted

These articles have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication. They are still in production and have not been edited, so may differ from the final published form.

ES22031, Accepted 16 May 2023

Evaluation of ACCESS-S1 seasonal forecasts of growing season precipitation for Western Australia’s wheatbelt region

Rebecca Firth , Jatin Kala, Debra Hudson and Fiona Evans

 

ES22031Abstract

Most Read

The Most Read ranking is based on the number of downloads in the last 60 days from papers published on the CSIRO PUBLISHING website within the last 12 months. Usage statistics are updated daily.

1. ACCESS-S2: the upgraded Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system

   Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 72 (3)

   Robin Wedd , Oscar Alves, Catherine de Burgh-Day , Christopher Down, Morwenna Griffiths, Harry H. Hendon, Debra Hudson, Shuhua Li, Eun-Pa Lim , Andrew G. Marshall , Li Shi, Paul Smith, Grant Smith, Claire M. Spillman, Guomin Wang, Matthew C. Wheeler, Hailin Yan, Yonghong Yin, Griffith Young, Mei Zhao, Yi Xiao, Xiaobing Zhou

2. Australian climate warming: observed change from 1850 and global temperature targets

   Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 73 (1)

   Michael R. Grose , Ghyslaine Boschat, Blair Trewin , Vanessa Round, Linden Ashcroft, Andrew D. King, Sugata Narsey, Edward Hawkins

3. ACCESS datasets for CMIP6: methodology and idealised experiments

   Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 72 (2)

   C. Mackallah , M. A. Chamberlain , R. M. Law , M. Dix , T. Ziehn , D. Bi, R. Bodman , J. R. Brown , P. Dobrohotoff , K. Druken, B. Evans, I. N. Harman , H. Hayashida , R. Holmes , A. E. Kiss , A. Lenton , Y. Liu, S. Marsland , K. Meissner , L. Menviel , S. O’Farrell , H. A. Rashid , S. Ridzwan, A. Savita , J. Srbinovsky, A. Sullivan , C. Trenham , P. F. Vohralik, Y.-P. Wang , G. Williams , M. T. Woodhouse , N. Yeung

4. Meteorological drivers of the eastern Victorian Black Summer (2019–2020) fires

   Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 72 (2)

   Graham Mills , Owen Salkin, Matthew Fearon, Sarah Harris, Timothy Brown, Hauss Reinbold

5. Impacts of ENSO on Australian rainfall: what not to expect

   Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 73 (1)

   Carly R. Tozer , James S. Risbey , Didier P. Monselesan, Mike J. Pook, Damien Irving, Nandini Ramesh , Jyoteeshkumar Reddy, Dougal T. Squire

6. Evaluation of climate variability and change in ACCESS historical simulations for CMIP6

   Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 72 (2)

   Harun A. Rashid , Arnold Sullivan, Martin Dix , Daohua Bi, Chloe Mackallah , Tilo Ziehn, Peter Dobrohotoff , Siobhan O’Farrell, Ian N. Harman, Roger Bodman, Simon Marsland

7. Past and future coastal flooding in Pacific Small-Island Nations: insights from the Pacific Sea Level and Geodetic Monitoring (PSLGM) Project tide gauges

   Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 72 (3)

   Mathilde Ritman , Ben Hague , Tauala Katea, Tavau Vaaia, Arona Ngari, Grant Smith, David Jones, Léna Tolu

8. Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina

   Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 72 (3)

   Grethel García Bu Bucogen , María Cintia Piccolo , Vanesa Yael Bohn , Gabriel Eduardo Huck

9. The effect of water currents on wind drag – a case study of tidal currents and sea breeze in a semi-enclosed embayment

   Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 73 (1)

   S. M. Thurgate

10. Indigenous Knowledge of seasons delivers a new way of considering annual cycles in atmospheric dispersion of pollutants

    Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 73 (1)

    Stephanie Beaupark , Élise-Andrée Guérette , Clare Paton-Walsh , Les Bursill, Scott D. Chambers, Lexodius Dadd, Maddison Miller, Christopher Tobin, Marcus Hughes, Emma Woodward

11. A wave-driven surface circulation feature in Table Bay

    Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 73 (1)

    Marc de Vos , Marcello Vichi , Christo Rautenbach

12. Simulations of the Waroona fire using the coupled atmosphere–fire model ACCESS-Fire

    Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 72 (2)

    Mika Peace , Jesse Greenslade, Hua Ye, Jeffrey D. Kepert

13. ACCESS-CM2-Chem: evaluation of southern hemisphere ozone and its effect on the Southern Annular Mode

    Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 73 (1)

    Fraser Dennison , Matthew T. Woodhouse

14. Seasonal climate summary for the southern hemisphere (summer 2019–20): a summer of extremes

    Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science (Online Early)

    Naomi Benger , Bernard Chapman

15. Determining the height of deep volcanic eruptions over the tropical western Pacific with Himawari-8

    Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science (Online Early)

    Chris Lucas

16. The effect of tidal range and mean sea-level changes on coastal flood hazards at Lakes Entrance, south-east Australia

    Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science (Online Early)

    Ben S. Hague , Rodger B. Grayson, Stefan A. Talke, Mitchell T. Black, Dörte Jakob

17. Synoptic-scale atmospheric cyclones in the South-East Tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) and their relation to IOD variability

    Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 72 (3)

    Ankit Kavi, Jochen Kämpf

18. A climatology of short-period temperature variations at Australian observation sites

    Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 72 (2)

    Blair Trewin

19. Projected changes in Antarctic daily temperature in CMIP6 under different warming scenarios during two future periods

    Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 72 (3)

    Jiangping Zhu , Aihong Xie , Xiang Qin , Bing Xu, Yicheng Wang