The ability of climate models to simulate accurate teleconnections between large-scale modes of variability and Australian rainfall is crucial in ensuring constrained projections of future climate. This paper evaluates models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), focusing on the seasonal teleconnections between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Southern Annular Mode and Australian rainfall. An improvement is found in the representation springtime rainfall teleconnections. However, large inter-model spread remains a source of uncertainty.

The latest UK Met Office Global Coupled Model Version 5.0 (GC5) configuration, which might underpin the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s next seasonal prediction and numerical weather prediction system, has been evaluated. The assessment focuses on the climate mean state and variabilities relevant to Australian climate and shows significant improvements in the eastern Pacific mean state. Despite remaining issues, GC5 shows promise for improved prediction skill of ENSO and its teleconnections.