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Future Antarctic amplification from extreme temperature indices in different socioeconomic scenarios and terms

Jiangping Zhu , Aihong Xie, Shimeng Wang, Xiang Qin, Bowei Li, Bing Xu, Yicheng Wang

Abstract

Global warming leads to an increase in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes. However, systematic projections over the Antarctica for different periods that are consistent with the IPCC AR6 have not been made. This study evaluates changes in 11 extreme temperature indices (TN10p, TX10p, TN90p, TX90p, CSDI, WSDI, TNn, TNx, TXn, TXx and DTR) over the Antarctica under four CMIP6 socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) across four future periods: near-future (2021-2040), mid-future (2041-2060), mid-far future (2061-2080), and far-future (2081-2100). The maximum and minimum temperatures exhibit intensified warming under higher radiative forcing, with Antarctic amplification (AnA) index exceeding 1.25 across all scenarios. Cold-related indices (TN10p, TX10p, CSDI) decline, while warm-related indices (TN90p, TX90p, WSDI) increase, reflecting Antarctic warming. Extreme low temperatures (TNn, TXn) and high temperatures (TNx, TXx) show pronounced warming over East Antarctica, particularly under SSP5-8.5. A decreasing DTR indicates faster warming of minimum temperature, especially along Antarctic coast in 2081-2100 under SSP5-8.5. AnA varies with scenarios and periods. Under SSP5-8.5, AnA persists across all periods, while SSP1-2.6 only exhibits AnA in cold indices (TN10p, TX10p, CSDI) by 2081-2100. East Antarctica is the core region of AnA, with strong signals in warm indices (2081-2100) and early-period extreme lows (2021-2040). The Antarctic Peninsula shows AnA in DTR under high-forcing scenarios. Future projections point to dramatic changes in Antarctic climate, with scenario-dependent extreme temperature variations underscoring the pivotal influence of socioeconomic pathway choices.

ES24009  Accepted 15 July 2025

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