Pyrogeographic analysis of drivers of lightning-ignited wildfires in Tasmania

Amila M. K. Wickramasinghe; Lynda D. Prior; Grant J. Williamson; Matthias M. Boer; David M. J. S. Bowman

doi:10.1071/WF24202

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Previous Contents Vol 34(5)

Pyrogeographic analysis of drivers of lightning-ignited wildfires in Tasmania

Amila M. K. Wickramasinghe

^A ^B ^* , Lynda D. Prior

^A , Grant J. Williamson

^A , Matthias M. Boer

^B and David M. J. S. Bowman

^A

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A Fire Centre, Discipline of Biological Sciences, School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia.

^B Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

^* Correspondence to: amila.wickramasinghe@utas.edu.au

International Journal of Wildland Fire 34, WF24202 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF24202

Submitted: 26 November 2024 Accepted: 13 April 2025 Published: 1 May 2025

© 2025 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Background

Recent studies have reported increasing frequency of lightning fires and associated burned area in Tasmania.

Aims

To identify factors driving the frequency and scale of lightning-induced fires in Tasmania.

Method

We compiled datasets on lightning activity, lightning fire, vegetation and fuel moisture. Multi-model inference was used to evaluate predictors of lightning fire. We determined the number of days annually with fuel dry enough to be susceptible to lightning fires. We examined temporal trends in lightning, lightning fires and fuel moisture between 2005 and 2022.

Key results

Drier fuels and higher lightning density increased the probability of lightning fires, with areas of treeless vegetation being more susceptible than forests. Lightning fire-prone areas were concentrated in western and central Tasmania. However, no significant trends were found in lightning days or lightning fire days. There was a drying trend in fuel moisture in western and southern Tasmania, and a increasing wetness trend in northern and eastern regions.

Conclusions and implications

Lightning fires are most likely in treeless vegetation with dry fuels and those exposed to intense lightning activity. The short record limits detecting temporal trends. High-resolution data on fuel dryness, lightning and ignitions are crucial for understanding lightning fire dynamics.

Keywords: climate change, dry lightning, forest fire, fuel dryness, Fuel Moisture Index, lightning, lightning density, Tasmania, Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage area, treeless vegetation.

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