A novel methodology to assess fuel treatment effectiveness: application to California’s forests

Kendra Fallon; John T. Abatzoglou; Matthew D. Hurteau; Ramona J. Butz; Beth Buchanan; Jennifer Pierce; James McNamara; Megan Cattau; Seyd Teymoor Seydi; Mojtaba Sadegh

doi:10.1071/WF24220

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

A novel methodology to assess fuel treatment effectiveness: application to California’s forests

Kendra Fallon ^A ^B , John T. Abatzoglou ^C , Matthew D. Hurteau ^D , Ramona J. Butz ^B ^E , Beth Buchanan ^F ^G , Jennifer Pierce ^A , James McNamara ^A , Megan Cattau ^H , Seyd Teymoor Seydi ^I and Mojtaba Sadegh

^I ^J ^*

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A Department of Geosciences, Boise State University, Boise, ID, USA.

^B USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Region, Vallejo, CA, USA.

^C Management of Complex Systems Department, University of California, Merced, CA, USA.

^D Biology Department, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA.

^E Department of Forestry, Fire, and Rangeland Management, California State Polytechnic University Humboldt, Arcata, CA, USA.

^F USDA Forest Service, Wildland Fire Management Research, Development & Application, Missoula, MT, USA.

^G USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT, USA.

^H Human-Environment Systems, Boise State University, Boise, ID, USA.

^I Department of Civil Engineering, Boise State University, Boise, ID, USA.

^J United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, Richmond Hill, ON, Canada.

^* Correspondence to: mojtabasadegh@boisestate.edu

International Journal of Wildland Fire 34, WF24220 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF24220

Submitted: 18 December 2024 Accepted: 19 June 2025 Published: 11 July 2025

© 2025 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Background

Fuel treatments are increasingly used to mitigate wildfire risks.

Aims

Proposing a novel, scalable and transferable methodology, this study investigates which treatment is (more) effective at a regional scale.

Methods

This research evaluates the effectiveness of fuel treatments in California forests using the Fuel Treatment Effectiveness Monitoring (FTEM) database, which provides a binary (yes/no) assessment of treatment efficacy based on a structured subjective evaluation process. Proposed methodology enables scaling up site-specific treatment outcomes to the regional level.

Key results

61% of treatment footprints that were intersected by a wildfire were effective at modifying fire behavior. Treatments that included wildland fire and/or fuel removal were more effective in modifying fire behavior (>70%) than those dominated by fuel rearrangement (49–54%). Even treatments with lower overall efficacy successfully modified fire behavior when applied at large scales. Fuel treatment effectiveness outcomes were robust under extreme weather conditions.

Conclusions

Fuel treatments are an effective wildfire mitigation tool, even under a warming climate with intensified fire weather. The proposed methodology can be used to assess fuel treatment effectiveness in United States regions that do not have California’s extensive case studies.

Implications

The choice of treatment options needs to be carefully considered as their effectiveness widely varies.

Keywords: FACTS, forest, FTEM, fuel treatment, national scale fuel treatment efficacy assessment, resilience, risk mitigation, wildfire.

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