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Evaluating the Potential of Forest Fuel Treatments to Reduce Future Wildfire Emissions

Kayla Johnston , David Schmidt, Carrie Levine, Thomas Buchholz, David Saah

Abstract

Background Effective forest fuel reduction treatments reduce hazardous fuel conditions, wildfire behavior, and severity. It has been suggested and partially quantitatively analyzed that these treatments may also reduce future wildfire emissions, but this potential is debated. We apply a previously published, encompassing modeling approach to assess the potential of forest fuel reduction treatments to reduce future wildfire emissions. Aims Evaluate the effectiveness of four fuel treatment types at reducing future wildfire greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across a range of forest types and initial fire hazard levels. Methods Forest growth, fire behavior, fire spread, and emissions models were used to simulate fuel treatments and their potential impacts. Key results The “underburn only” and “thin from below + pile burn” treatments had a minimum annual fire probability (AFP) 5-35% lower than other treatment types to achieve reduced GHG emissions. When AFP was high, the “SDI thin + underburn” treatment reduced GHG emissions 13-54% more than the next best treatment. Conclusions AFP, forest type, and initial hazard level should be primary considerations when selecting a fuel treatment type for reducing future GHG emissions. Implications These results provide decision support when selecting a fuel treatment type for reducing future GHG emissions.

WF25026  Accepted 08 October 2025

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