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Can the National Fire-Danger Rating System -1978 (NFDRS) of the USA be Effective in Other Regions? Israel as a Case Study

Edna Guk , Avi Bar-Massada, Noam Levin

Abstract

Background. Effective fire management requires reliable pre-fire risk assessment tools. The U.S. National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS-1978) is widely used, yet its applicability in non-U.S. ecosystems remains uncertain. Aims. We retrospectively tested the effectiveness of the Burning Index (BI) in predicting wildfire characteristics in non-US Mediterranean-type ecosystems, using Israel as a case study. Methods. We examined correlations between the BI and wildfire characteristics at multiple temporal scales and developed an enhanced predictive model by integrating the index with vegetation-related and anthropogenic variables. Key results. The BI had stronger correlations with wildfire burned area at coarser temporal scales (monthly and weekly), whereas its correlative utility diminished at finer resolutions (daily and event-based scales). Incorporating additional data—such as live fuel moisture content (LFMC), vegetation continuity, and anthropogenic factors—significantly enhanced model performance for burned area predictions, increasing the explained variance up to 50% when arson and military-related wildfires were excluded. In contrast, wildfire duration was not successfully predicted by either BI alone or the multivariable predictive model. Conclusions. The BI’s predictive strength is scale-dependent and limited at fine resolutions. Implications. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the characteristics of the local fire regime when adapting the NFDRS for non-US ecosystems

WF25088  Accepted 23 July 2025

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