Planning challenges for the changing paradigm of gas-powered generation operations
Joe Lane A * , Iain Rodger A , Andrew Garnett A B and David Close AA
B
Joe Lane is a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Queensland Gas & Energy Transition Research Centre (UQ-GET), leading the Centre’s Energy Security research theme. His research explores energy transition trade-offs from multiple perspectives, including the risks arising from interconnection across the electricity and gas systems. |
Iain Rodger is a Petroleum Engineer at UQ-GET focussed on reservoir simulation, and carbon capture and storage projects. Iain graduated from the University of Edinburgh with a BSc (Honours) in Chemistry with Environmental Chemistry, before completing an MSc in Petroleum Engineering at UQ. |
Andrew Garnett was the Centre Director at the UQ Centre for Coal Seam Gas and Centre for Natural Gas from 2012 to 2023. He is the current Chair of the Australian Gas Industry Trust. He has over 25 years of experience in international upstream conventional and unconventional oil and gas projects. |
David Close is the Director of UQ-GET, and has over 20 years of industry experience. He holds a PhD in Marine Geophysics from the University of Oxford and a BSc (Hons) from the University of Tasmania. |
Abstract
Gas-powered generation (GPG) will become increasingly critical for keeping the lights on in the east-coast electricity system (the National Electricity Market, NEM). However, energy transition planners still too often assume that GPG, and its gas supply, can continue being perfectly responsive to fluctuating electricity system demand. Multiple perspectives and historical experience suggest this is a poorly founded assumption. We illustrate the risks to NEM resilience, and the planning challenges for the gas sector, by implementing a deep-dive re-model of Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) 2024 Integrated System Plan (ISP-2024) Step Change scenario. Using AEMO’s own weather scenarios, the volatility in GPG demand will increase to levels far exceeding anything experienced historically in either the electricity or domestic gas supply systems. We also develop our own estimates of renewable energy zone (REZ)-level variable renewable energy (VRE) resource potential, back-cast over an 80-year historical record. This indicates that AEMO’s reliance on only 13 years of weather data is insufficient to capture the full range of possible winter wind production in southern states. This represents a substantial increase in the rate of gas supply (to GPG) that might be required, unanticipated by AEMO’s modelling approach. Infrastructure planning to support the coming energy transition, will need to pay far greater attention to the inherent uncertainty in estimates of future GPG demand.
Keywords: energy transition, gas powered generation, gas supply, GPG, NEM, renewable energy, uncertainty analysis, VRE.
Joe Lane is a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Queensland Gas & Energy Transition Research Centre (UQ-GET), leading the Centre’s Energy Security research theme. His research explores energy transition trade-offs from multiple perspectives, including the risks arising from interconnection across the electricity and gas systems. |
Iain Rodger is a Petroleum Engineer at UQ-GET focussed on reservoir simulation, and carbon capture and storage projects. Iain graduated from the University of Edinburgh with a BSc (Honours) in Chemistry with Environmental Chemistry, before completing an MSc in Petroleum Engineering at UQ. |
Andrew Garnett was the Centre Director at the UQ Centre for Coal Seam Gas and Centre for Natural Gas from 2012 to 2023. He is the current Chair of the Australian Gas Industry Trust. He has over 25 years of experience in international upstream conventional and unconventional oil and gas projects. |
David Close is the Director of UQ-GET, and has over 20 years of industry experience. He holds a PhD in Marine Geophysics from the University of Oxford and a BSc (Hons) from the University of Tasmania. |
