Climate change projected to reduce prescribed burning opportunities in the south-eastern United States
John A. Kupfer
A E , Adam J. Terando B C , Peng Gao A , Casey Teske D and J. Kevin Hiers D
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA.
B US Geological Survey, Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, Raleigh, NC, 27695 USA.
C Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA.
D Tall Timbers Research Station, Wildland Fire Sciences Program, Tallahassee FL 32312, USA.
E Corresponding author. Email: kupfer@mailbox.sc.edu
International Journal of Wildland Fire 29(9) 764-778 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF19198
Submitted: 2 December 2019 Accepted: 1 May 2020 Published: 1 June 2020
Journal Compilation © IAWF 2020 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
Prescribed burning is a critical tool for managing wildfire risks and meeting ecological objectives, but its safe and effective application requires that specific meteorological criteria (a ‘burn window’) are met. Here, we evaluate the potential impacts of projected climatic change on prescribed burning in the south-eastern United States by applying a set of burn window criteria that capture temperature, relative humidity and wind speed to projections from an ensemble of Global Climate Models under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Regionally, the percentage of suitable days for burning changes little during winter but decreases substantially in summer owing to rising temperatures by the end of the 21st century compared with historical conditions. Management implications of such changes for six representative land management units include seasonal shifts in burning opportunities from summer to cool-season months, but with considerable regional variation. We contend that the practical constraints of rising temperatures on prescribed fire activities represent a significant future challenge and show that even meeting basic burn criteria (as defined today) will become increasingly difficult over time, which speaks to the need for adaptive management strategies to prepare for such changes.
Additional keywords: coastal plain, piedmont, managed fire regimes, statistical downscaling, wildfire.
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