Exploring the influence of the Keetch–Byram Drought Index and McArthur’s Drought Factor on wildfire incidence in Victoria, Australia

M. P. Plucinski; E. Tartaglia; C. Huston; A. G. Stephenson; S. Dunstall; N. F. McCarthy; S. Deutsch

doi:10.1071/WF23073

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

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Exploring the influence of the Keetch–Byram Drought Index and McArthur’s Drought Factor on wildfire incidence in Victoria, Australia

M. P. Plucinski

^A ^* , E. Tartaglia

^B , C. Huston

^B , A. G. Stephenson ^B , S. Dunstall

^B , N. F. McCarthy

^C and S. Deutsch ^D

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A CSIRO, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.

^B CSIRO Data61, Private Bag 10, Clayton South, Vic. 3169, Australia.

^C Research and Development Team, Fire Risk, Research and Community Preparedness Department, Country Fire Authority, Burwood, Vic. 3151, Australia.

^D Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action, Data Insights, PO Box 500, East Melbourne, Vic. 8002, Australia.

^* Correspondence to: matt.plucinski@csiro.au

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23073 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23073

Submitted: 11 May 2023 Accepted: 7 August 2023 Published: 28 August 2023

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Background

Wildfires are thought to become more prevalent during periods of extended dry weather. This issue is examined using two dryness metrics commonly applied in Australian fire management agencies.

Aims

This paper investigated links between wildfire incidence and the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and McArthur’s Drought Factor (DF) across the state of Victoria, Australia.

Methods

Weather records and data from 41 418 wildfires that occurred across the State over a 17-year period were compiled to examine the distributions of KBDI and DF on days with fires smaller and larger than 5 ha in area and all days, using kernel density plots.

Key results

Days with fires, particularly days with fires that escaped initial attack, have higher DFs and KBDIs compared with all days. These differences vary between regions and are greatest in areas with moist climates.

Conclusions and implications

An appreciation of dryness conditions using tools such as KBDI and DF is useful for understanding fire potential, particularly in areas that experience higher and more regular rainfall.

Keywords: drought, Drought Factor, dryness, fire occurrence, fuel availability, ignition timing, Keetch–Byram Drought Index, moisture deficit.

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