A novel fire regime driven by increased lightning activity and lightning ignition efficiency for northwestern Patagonia, Argentina
Thomas Kitzberger A * and Rodrigo E. Bürgesser BA
B
Abstract
Northwestern Patagonia, Argentina, has in recent decades experienced large lightning-ignited wildfires that suggests ongoing changes into a novel fire regime.
This study investigates spatial and temporal patterns, drivers and trends in lightning and lightning storm incidence and lightning ignition efficiency.
We spatially/temporally matched 10 years of lightning stroke data, historical fire records and atmospheric reanalysis datasets.
Andean forests had the highest incidence of dry lightning and highest ignition efficiency. Incidence of large lightning storms was associated with high atmospheric convective activity, related to an enhanced south reaching South American Low-Level Jet. Lightning ignitions were largely controlled by antecedent fire weather represented by threshold values of Fire Weather Index. Positive multidecadal trends in atmospheric instability and frequency of extreme fire weather relate to the observed 18-fold increase in lightning-caused fires, accounting for nearly 50% of the area burned in the last decade.
More frequent lightning-ignited wildfires results from both increased monsoonal influence inducing atmospheric instability and warming-drying trends that impact on fuel conditions.
Continued warming, combined with increasing lightning activity, suggest a growing role for lightning-ignited wildfires in shaping regional fire regimes, thus posing new challenges to fire managers and the society.
Keywords: climate change, fire weather, ignition efficiency, lightning ignitions, Patagonia, Rossby waves, South American low-level jet, wildfires.
References
Abatzoglou JT, Kolden CA, Balch JK, Bradley BA (2016) Controls on interannual variability in lightning-caused fire activity in the western US. Environmental Research Letters 11, 045005.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Abatzoglou JT, Williams AP, Barbero R (2019) Global emergence of Anthropogenic climate change in fire weather indices. Geophysical Research Letters 46(1), 326-336.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Allen CD, Macalady AK, Chenchouni H, Bachelet D, McDowell N, Vennetier M, Kitzberger T, et al. (2010) A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest Ecology and Management 259, 660-684.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Ali SM, Röthlisberger M, Parker T, Kornhuber K, Martius O (2022) Recurrent Rossby waves and south-eastern Australian heatwaves. Weather Climate Dynamics 3, 1139-1156.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Barros VR, Boninsegna JA, Camilloni IA, Chidiak M, Magrín GO, Rusticucci M (2015) Climate change in Argentina: trends, projections, impacts and adaptation. WIREs Climate Change 6, 151-169.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Barberá I, Paritsis J, Ammassari L, Morales JM, Kitzberger T (2023) Microclimate and species composition shape the contribution of fuel moisture to positive fire-vegetation feedbacks. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 330, 109289.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Bovalo C, Barthe C, Bègue N (2012) A lightning climatology of the South-West Indian Ocean. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12, 2659-2670.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Bürgesser RE (2017) Assessment of the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) detection efficiency by comparison to the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 143, 2809-2817.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (2017) ‘ERA5 Ag: Agrometeorological indicators from 1979 to present derived from reanalysis.’ (Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store (CDS)) Available at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/sis-agrometeorological-indicators?tab=overview
Cunningham CX, Williamson GJ, Nolan RH, Teckentrup L, Boer MM, Bowman DMJS (2024) Pyrogeography in flux: reorganization of Australian fire regimes in a hotter world. Global Change Biology 30, e17130.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Di Capua G, Coumou D (2016) Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation. Environmental Research Letters 11, 094028.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Dowden RL, Brundell JB, Rodger CJ (2002) VLF lightning location by time of group arrival (TOGA) at multiple sites. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 64, 817-830.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
EuMeTrain (2012) ‘The South American Low-Level Jet. Manual of Synoptic Satellite Meteorology.’ (Conceptual Models for Southern Hemisphere) Available at https://resources.eumetrain.org/satmanu/CM4SH/Argentina/Sallj/print.htm
Fragkoulidis G (2022) Decadal variability and trends in extratropical Rossby wave packet amplitude, phase, and phase speed. Weather Climate Dynamics 3, 1381-1398.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Garreaud RD, Nicora MG, Bürgesser RE, Ávila EE (2014) Lightning in Western Patagonia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 119, 4471-4485.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Gomes GD, Nunes AMB, Libonati R, Ambrizzi T (2022) Projections of subcontinental changes in seasonal precipitation over the two major river basins in South America under an extreme climate scenario. Climate Dynamics 58, 1147-1169.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
González ME (2005) Fire history data as reference information in ecological restoration. Dendrochronologia 22, 149-154.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Gonzalez PLM, Polvani LM, Seager R, Correa GJP (2014) Stratospheric ozone depletion: a key driver of recent precipitation trends in South Eastern South America. Climate Dynamics 42, 1775-1792.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Hessilt TD, Abatzoglou JT, Chen Y, Randerson JT, Scholten RC, van der Werf G, Veraverbeke S (2022) Future increases in LIE and wildfire occurrence expected from drier fuels in boreal forest ecosystems of western North America. Environmental Research Letters 17, 054008.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Holzworth RH, McCarthy MP, Brundell JB, Jacobson AR, Rodger CJ (2019) Global distribution of superbolts. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 124(17–18), 9996-10005.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Jain P, Castellanos-Acuna D, Coogan SCP, et al. (2022) Observed increases in extreme fire weather driven by atmospheric humidity and temperature. Nature Climate Change 12, 63-70.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Jones C, Carvalho LMV (2018) The influence of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on the eastern Andes low-level jet and precipitation in South America. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1, 40.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Jones C, Mu Y, Carvalho LMV, Ding Q (2023) The South America Low-Level Jet: form, variability and large-scale forcings. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 6(1),.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Jones MW, Abatzoglou JT, Veraverbeke S, Andela N, Lasslop G, Forkel M, et al. (2022) Global and regional trends and drivers of fire under climate change. Reviews of Geophysics 60, e2020RG000726.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Kalashnikov DA, Abatzoglou JT, Nauslar NJ, Swain DL, Touma D, Singh D (2022) Meteorological and geographical factors associated with dry lightning in central and northern California. Environmental Research: Climate 1, 025001.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Kaplan JO, Lau KHK (2022) World wide lightning location network (WWLLN) global lightning climatology (WGLC) and time series, 2022 update. Earth System Science Data 14(12), 5665-5670.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Kitzberger T, Tiribelli F, Barberá I, Gowda JH, Morales JM, Zalazar L, Paritsis J (2022) Projections of fire probability and ecosystem vulnerability under 21st century climate across a trans-Andean productivity gradient in Patagonia. Science of The Total Environment 839, 156303.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Lara A, Rutherford P, Montory C, Bran D, Pérez A, Clayton S, Ayesa J, Barrios D, Gross M, Iglesias G (1999) Vegetación de la eco-región de los bosques Valdivianos. Escala 1:500.000. Boletín Técnico FVSA 51, 1-24.
| Google Scholar |
Lin SJ, Chou KH (2020) The lightning distribution of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Monthly Weather Review 148, 4415-4434.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Lutz JA, van Wagtendonk JW, Thode AE, Miller JD, Franklin JF (2009) Climate, lightning ignitions, and fire severity in Yosemite National Park, California, USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 765-774.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Marengo JA, Soares WR, Saulo C, Nicolini M (2004) Climatology of the low-level jet east of the Andes as derived from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses: characteristics and temporal variability. Journal of Climate 17, 2261-2280.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Nampak H, Love P, Fox-Hughes P, Watson C, Aryal J, Harris RMB (2021) Characterizing spatial and temporal variability of lightning activity associated with wildfire over Tasmania, Australia. Fire 4(1), 10.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Olson DM, Dinerstein E, Wikramanayake ED, Burgess ND, Powell GVN, Underwood EC, D’Amico JA, Itoua I, Strand HE, Morrison JC, Loucks CJ, Allnutt TF, Ricketts TH, Kura Y, Lamoreux JF, Wettengel WW, Hedao P, Kassem KR (2001) Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: a new map of life on Earth. BioScience 51, 933-938.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Pérez-Invernón FJ, Gordillo-Vázquez FJ, Huntrieser H, Jöckel P (2023) Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change. Nature Communications 14, 739.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Pietruszka BM, Young JD, Short KC, et al. (2023) Consequential lightning-caused wildfires and the “let burn” narrative. Fire Ecology 19, 50.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Pineda N, Montanyà J, van der Velde OA (2014) Characteristics of lightning related to wildfire ignitions in Catalonia. Atmospheric Research 135–136, 380-387.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Pineda N, Rodríguez O, Casellas E, Bech J, Montanyà J (2024) Meteorological factors associated with dry thunderstorms and simultaneous lightning-ignited wildfires: The 15 June 2022 outbreak in Catalonia. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 359, 110268.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Podur J, Martell DL, Csillag F (2003) Spatial patterns of lightning-caused forest fires in Ontario, 1976–1998. Ecological Modelling 164(1), 1-20.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Qie K, Wenshou T, Wang W, Wu X, Yuan T, Tian H, Luo J, Zhang R, Wang T (2020) Regional trends of lightning activity in the tropics and subtropics. Atmospheric Research 242, 104960.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Rao K, Williams AP, Diffenbaugh NS, Yebra M, Bryant C, Konings AG (2023) Dry live fuels increase the likelihood of lightning-caused fires. Geophysical Research Letters 50, e2022GL100975.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Rorig ML, Ferguson SA (1999) Characteristics of lightning and wildland fire ignition in the Pacific Northwest. Journal of Applied Meteorology 38, 1565-1575.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Salio P, Nicolini M, Zipser E (2007) Mesoscale convective systems over southeastern South America and their relationship with the South American Low-Level Jet. Monthly Weather Review 135, 1290-1309.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Screen JA, Simmonds I (2014) Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes. Nature Climate Change 4, 704-709.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association 63(324), 1379-1389.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Song Y, Xu C, Li X, Oppong F (2024) Lightning-induced wildfires: an overview. Fire 7, 79.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Suarez ML, Ghermandi L, Kitzberger T (2004) Factors predisposing episodic drought-induced tree mortality in Nothofagus: site, climatic sensitivity and growth trends. Journal of Ecology 92, 954-966.
| Google Scholar |
Soula S, Kasereka JK, Georgis JF, Barthe C (2016) Lightning climatology in the Congo Basin. Atmospheric Research 178, 304-319.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Varuolo-Clarke AM, Williams AP, Smerdon JE, Ting M, Bishop DA (2022) Influence of the South American low-level jet on the austral summer precipitation trend in southeastern South America. Geophysical Research Letters 49, e2021GL096409.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Veblen TT, Kitzberger T, Raffaele E, Mermoz M, González ME, Sibold JS, Holz A (2008) The historical range of variability of fires in the Andean-Patagonian Nothofagus forest region. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 724-741.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Vecín-Arias D, Castedo-Dorado F, Ordóñez C, Rodríguez-Pérez JR (2016) Biophysical and lightning characteristics drive lightning-induced fire occurrence in the central plateau of the Iberian Peninsula. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 225, 36-47.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Virts KS, Wallace JM, Hutchins ML, Holzworth RH (2013) Diurnal lightning variability over the Maritime continent: impact of low-level winds, cloudiness, and the MJO. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 70, 3128-3146.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Virts KS, Wallace JM, Hutchins ML, Holzworth RH (2015) Diurnal and seasonal lightning variability over the Gulf Stream and the Gulf of Mexico. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 72, 2657-2665.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Yang X, Zeng G, Zhang S, Iyakaremye V, Shen C, Wang W‐C, Chen D (2024) Phase‐locked Rossby wave‐4 pattern dominates the 2022‐like concurrent heat extremes across the Northern Hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters 51, e2023GL107106.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
