Nitrogen: the historical progression from ignorance to knowledge, with a view to future solutionsJames N. Galloway A E , Allison M. Leach B , Jan Willem Erisman C and Albert Bleeker D
A Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, 291 McCormick Road, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA.
B Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA.
C Louis Bolk Institute, Hoofdstraat 24, 3972 LA Driebergen, The Netherlands Department of Earth Sciences, Earth and Climate Cluster, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
D Department of Water, Agriculture and Food, The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, The Hague, The Netherlands.
E Corresponding author. Email: email@example.com
Soil Research 55(6) 417-424 https://doi.org/10.1071/SR16334
Submitted: 19 January 2017 Accepted: 6 June 2017 Published: 7 August 2017
Once upon a time there was enough naturally occurring nitrogen (N) to provide food for the world’s peoples. Then there was not in the western regions. Now there is due to industrially produced NH3. But this transition from plenty, to scarcity, to plenty has come with a tremendous environmental cost. This paper provides an historical overview of the growth of knowledge about N and about its impacts, both positive and negative. The paper also explores three scenarios of what might have been, if in 1700 the world had the N-knowledge that we have now. The paper then projects N use to feed the world’s people in 2050 under three scenarios of per-capita protein consumption: increasing, constant and decreasing relative to nutritional guidelines. The three projected results for 2050 annual N use from producing and consuming food are 320, 230 and 170 Tg N respectively. The latter is equivalent to 1970 levels. Given that the first scenario (increasing protein) is most likely without utilising our N-knowledge, the paper ends with suggestions for improvements in N use and management.
Additional keywords: diet, historical perspective, impacts, projections.
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