Future Antarctic amplification from extreme temperature indices for different socioeconomic scenarios and time periods

Jiangping Zhu; Aihong Xie; Shimeng Wang; Xiang Qin; Bowei Li; Bing Xu; Yicheng Wang

doi:10.1071/ES24009

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

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Future Antarctic amplification from extreme temperature indices for different socioeconomic scenarios and time periods

Jiangping Zhu

^A , Aihong Xie ^A ^* , Shimeng Wang ^A , Xiang Qin ^A , Bowei Li ^A ^B , Bing Xu ^C and Yicheng Wang ^D

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu, PR China.

^B University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, PR China.

^C Weather Modification Office of Liaoning Province, Shenyang, Liaoning, PR China.

^D Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Lanzhou, Gansu, PR China.

^* Correspondence to: xieaih@lzb.ac.cn, xieaihong@nieer.ac.cn

Handling Editor: Neil Holbrook

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 75, ES24009 https://doi.org/10.1071/ES24009

Submitted: 23 April 2024 Accepted: 15 July 2025 Published: 3 September 2025

© 2025 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of the Bureau of Meteorology. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Global warming leads to an increase in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes. However, systematic projections over the Antarctica for different periods that are consistent with the IPCC AR6 have not been made. This study evaluates changes in 11 extreme temperature indices (TN10p, TX10p, TN90p, TX90p, CSDI, WSDI, TNn, TNx, TXn, TXx and DTR) over Antarctica under four CMIP6 socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5) across four future periods: near-future (2021–2040), mid-future (2041–2060), mid-far-future (2061–2080) and far-future (2081–2100). The maximum and minimum temperatures exhibit intensified warming under higher radiative forcing, with the Antarctic amplification (AnA) index exceeding 1.25 across all scenarios. Cold-related indices (TN10p, TX10p and CSDI) decline, whereas warm-related indices (TN90p, TX90p and WSDI) increase, reflecting Antarctic warming. Extreme low temperatures (TNn and TXn) and high temperatures (TNx and TXx) show pronounced warming over East Antarctica, particularly under SSP5–8.5. A decreasing DTR indicates faster warming of minimum temperature, especially along the Antarctic coast in 2081–2100 under SSP5–8.5. The AnA varies with scenarios and periods. Under SSP5–8.5, AnA persists across all periods, whereas SSP1–2.6 only exhibits AnA in cold indices (TN10p, TX10p and CSDI) by 2081–2100. East Antarctica is the core region of AnA, with strong signals in warm indices (2081–2100) and early-period extreme lows (2021–2040). The Antarctic Peninsula shows AnA in DTR under high-forcing scenarios. Future projections point to dramatic changes in Antarctic climate, with scenario-dependent extreme temperature variations underscoring the pivotal influence of socioeconomic pathway choices.

Keywords: Antarctica, climate change, CMIP6, ETCCDI, extreme indices, future scenarios, polar amplification, temperature.

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