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Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science SocietyJournal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Society
A journal for meteorology, climate, oceanography, hydrology and space weather focused on the southern hemisphere
RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Probabilistic forecasts of extreme wind gusts

Paul Fox-Hughes https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0083-9928 A * and Alex Melitsis B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Science and Innovation Group, Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, Tas., Australia.

B Community Services Group, Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, Tas., Australia.

* Correspondence to: paul.fox-hughes@bom.gov.au

Handling Editor: Josephine Brown

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 75, ES24052 https://doi.org/10.1071/ES24052
Submitted: 13 December 2024  Accepted: 28 March 2025  Published: 30 April 2025

© 2025 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of the Bureau of Meteorology. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

We document two damaging to destructive wind gust events in Tasmania, Australia, both of which resulted from synoptic-scale weather features and had widespread impacts. In documenting the events, we present a forecast diagnostic using ACCESS-CE (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator – City Ensemble), a high-resolution ensemble convection-allowing numerical weather prediction model introduced into the Bureau of Meteorology in recent years. In each case, the deterministic high-resolution operational forecast model, ACCESS-C, and especially its ensemble counterpart ACCESS-CE, provided very useful guidance of the potential for damaging to destructive wind gusts, both in respect of timing and of geographical range. The gust probability diagnostic summarised model guidance in a way that permitted rapid assessment by operational meteorologists, and communication to emergency managers of the hazard.

Keywords: ACCESS-C, diagnostics, downslope winds, ensemble numerical weather prediction, extreme winds, forecasting, severe weather, synoptic weather, visualisation.

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