Disentangling the uncertainties in regional projections for Australia

Sugata Narsey; Michael Grose; Francois Delage; Gen Tolhurst; Christine Chung; Alicia Takbash; Ghyslaine Boschat; Malcolm King; Acacia Pepler; Marcus Thatcher; Benjamin Ng; Son Truong; Chun-Hsu Su; Emma Howard; Christian Stassen; Mitchell Black; David Jones; Richard Matear; Sarah Chapman; Jozef Syktus; Ralph Trancoso; Giovanni Di Virgilio; Rishav Goyal; Jatin Kala; Vanessa Round; Jason P. Evans

doi:10.1071/ES25015

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Previous Contents Vol 75(3)

Disentangling the uncertainties in regional projections for Australia

Sugata Narsey

^A ^* , Michael Grose

^B , Francois Delage ^A , Gen Tolhurst ^A , Christine Chung

^A , Alicia Takbash ^C , Ghyslaine Boschat ^A , Malcolm King ^C , Acacia Pepler

^D , Marcus Thatcher ^C , Benjamin Ng

^C , Son Truong

^C , Chun-Hsu Su

^A , Emma Howard

^E , Christian Stassen

^A , Mitchell Black

^A , David Jones ^F , Richard Matear ^B , Sarah Chapman

^G ^H , Jozef Syktus ^G ^H , Ralph Trancoso ^G ^H , Giovanni Di Virgilio ^I , Rishav Goyal ^I , Jatin Kala ^J , Vanessa Round ^C and Jason P. Evans

^K

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, Vic., Australia.

^B CSIRO, Hobart, Tas., Australia.

^C CSIRO, Aspendale, Vic., Australia.

^D Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

^E Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.

^F Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, Tas., Australia.

^G School of the Environment, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.

^H Queensland Treasury, Queensland Government, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.

^I New South Wales Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

^J Murdoch University, Perth, WA, Australia.

^K Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Weather of the 21st Century, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

^* Correspondence to: sugata.narsey@bom.gov.au, media@bom.gov.au
Media enquiries: media@bom.gov.au

Handling Editor: Anita Drumond

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 75, ES25015 https://doi.org/10.1071/ES25015

Submitted: 14 March 2025 Accepted: 13 August 2025 Published: 11 September 2025

© 2025 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of the Bureau of Meteorology. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Understanding, quantifying and visualising projected ranges of future regional climate change is important for informing robust climate change impact assessments. Here, we examine projections of Australian sub-continental regionally averaged surface air temperature and precipitation in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) global and Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-Australasia regional model ensembles and illustrate the relative sources of uncertainty from emissions scenarios, models and internal climate variability. As expected, the uncertainty in temperature change for all regions by the end of the century is predominantly determined by the emissions scenario. Here, we examine a low and high emissions scenario, bookending a range of plausible cases. In contrast, the uncertainty in precipitation changes towards the end of the 21st Century is largely related to model-to-model differences, in particular owing to the differences between global models, with regional models contributing a smaller, but still significant, source of uncertainty. Regional models can significantly alter precipitation projections; however, we find few cases of consistency across the regional models. Decadal variability is an important contributing factor for precipitation uncertainty for the entire 21st Century. Large changes in interannual precipitation variability are projected by some climate models by the end of the 21st Century, and these changes tend to be well correlated to mean precipitation changes. Robust responses to climate change must account for all of these dimensions in a structured way.

Keywords: Australia, climate change, climate models, CMIP6, CORDEX Australasia, downscaling, model ensembles, precipitation, projections, temperature, uncertainty, variability.

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