Deep snow and human influence affect survival of an ungulate at the northern part of its range
Alexej P. K. Sirén
A * , Nathan R. Bieber B and Kyle Ravana B
A
B
Abstract
Winter is generally considered the limiting season for wildlife populations living in high-latitude/altitude regions. Logically, managers have used temperature and snow variables or indices to predict survival and adjust harvest quotas according to winter severity. A common approach is to use a winter severity index (WSI) to evaluate the effects of winter severity on game species (e.g. ungulates). However, a WSI requires both snow and temperature data, ideally collected at broad spatial scales and at high temporal resolution (e.g. weekly), and can take considerable effort to collect the data.
We evaluated the influence of several winter variables, including a WSI that has been used for predicting winter survival over the past several decades, on adult female white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) survival in northern New England. We also considered the influence of humans (anthropogenic influence), primarily in the form of artificial feeding, on deer survival.
We monitored 200 radio-collared deer in four different management units that spanned the gradient of winter climate and anthropogenic influence in the region over the course of seven winters (2015–2021). We used known-fate, staggered-entry, binomial models in a Bayesian framework to evaluate factors that influenced deer survival.
We recorded 64 mortalities that were primarily associated with predation in the northern regions but also from deer–vehicle collisions. Average (95% credible intervals [CI]) winter survival was 78% (66–89%), with the lowest and highest estimates occurring during the harshest (72%; CI = 54–85%) and mildest (82%; CI = 67–93%) winters respectively. The top survival model included snow depth under closed canopy and an additive effect of anthropogenic influence; snow depth had a negative effect, and anthropogenic influence had a positive effect on survival. However, WSI had low predictive power, and predicted higher survival in most winters and regions.
Our study indicated that winter survival rates of adult female deer were most influenced by snow and anthropogenic factors in northern New England and that WSI indices for evaluating the impacts of winter on deer populations were not robust for monitoring survival and determining harvest quotas.
Natural resource agencies should consider using alternative field methods (e.g. remote cameras) for monitoring annual snowpack and deer survival in high latitude regions. Further research is needed to determine which anthropogenic factors have a negative and positive impact on deer survival.
Keywords: abiotic stress, anthropogenic factors, artificial feeding, forest cover, Odocoileus virginianus, snow depth, survival, white-tailed deer, winter severity, WSI.
References
Baker DL, Hobbs NT (1985) Emergency feeding of mule deer during winter: tests of a supplemental ration. The Journal of Wildlife Management 49(4), 934-942.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Barrett MW, Nolan JW, Roy LD (1982) Evaluation of a hand-held net-gun to capture large mammals. Wildlife Society Bulletin 10(2), 108-114.
| Google Scholar |
Breen C, Vuyovich C, Odden J, Hall D, Prugh L (2023) Evaluating MODIS snow products using an extensive wildlife camera network. Remote Sensing of Environment 295, 113648.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Breen CM, Currier WR, Vuyovich C, Miao Z, Prugh LR (2024) Snow depth extraction from time-lapse imagery using a keypoint deep learning model. Water Resources Research 60(7), e2023WR036682.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Bunnell FL, Parker KL, McNay RS, Hovey FW (1990) Sinking depths of black-tailed deer in snow, and their indices. Canadian Journal of Zoology 68(5), 917-922.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Clover MR (1954) Single-gate deer trap. California Fish and Game 42, 199-201.
| Google Scholar |
Dawe KL, Boutin S (2012) Winter severity index using widely available weather information. Wildlife Research 39(4), 321-328.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Dawe KL, Bayne EM, Boutin S (2014) Influence of climate and human land use on the distribution of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the western boreal forest. Canadian Journal of Zoology 92(4), 353-363.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
DelGiudice GD, Riggs MR, Joly P, Pan W (2002) Winter severity, survival, and cause-specific mortality of female white-tailed deer in north-central Minnesota. The Journal of Wildlife Management 66(3), 698-717.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
DelGiudice GD, Fieberg JR, Sampson BA (2013) A long-term assessment of the variability in winter use of dense conifer cover by female white-tailed deer. PLoS ONE 8, e65368.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Ditchkoff SS, Servello FA (2002) Patterns in winter nutritional status of white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus populations in Maine, USA. Wildlife Biology 8(2), 137-143.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Dumont A, Ouellet J-P, Crête M, Huot J (1998) Caractéristiques des peuplements forestiers recherchés par le cerf de Virginie en hiver à la limite nord de son aire de répartition. Canadian Journal of Zoology 76(6), 1024-1036.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Dumont A, Crête M, Ouellet J-P, Huot J, Lamoureux J (2000) Population dynamics of northern white-tailed deer during mild winters: evidence of regulation by food competition. Canadian Journal of Zoology 78(5), 764-776.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Dumont A, Ouellet J-P, Crête M, Huot J (2005) Winter foraging strategy of white-tailed deer at the northern limit of its range. Écoscience 12(4), 476-484.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Dunkley L, Cattet MRL (2003) A comprehensive review of the ecological and human social effects of artificial feeding and baiting of wildlife. Canadian Cooperative Wildlife Health Centre: Newsletters & Publications 21, 68.
| Google Scholar |
Ferree C, Anderson MG (2013) A map of terrestrial habitats of the Northeastern United States: Methods and approach. The Nature Conservancy, Eastern Conservation Science, Eastern Regional Office, Boston, MA. Available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5a611943e4b06e28e9c25976
Fieberg J, Kuehn DW, Delgiudice GD (2008) Understanding variation in autumn migration of northern white-tailed deer by long-term study. Journal of Mammalogy 89(6), 1529-1539.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Fleming PA, Bateman PW (2018) Novel predation opportunities in anthropogenic landscapes. Animal Behaviour 138, 145-155.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Fortin NL, Pekins PJ, Gustafson KA (2015) Productivity measures of white-tailed deer in New Hampshire: assessing reduced recruitment. Wildlife Society Bulletin 39(1), 56-64.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Fudge D, Reedman B, Rowell M, Nette T, Power VA (2007) Road-kill of mammals in Nova Scotia. The Canadian Field-Naturalist 121(3), 265-273.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Fuller TK (1990) Dynamics of a declining white-tailed deer population in north-central Minnesota. Wildlife Monographs 110, 3-37.
| Google Scholar |
Fuller AK (2004) Canada lynx predation on white-tailed deer. Northeastern Naturalist 11(4), 395-398.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Garroway CJ, Broders HG (2005) The quantitative effects of population density and winter weather on the body condition of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Nova Scotia, Canada. Canadian Journal of Zoology 83(9), 1246-1256.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Gelman A, Rubin DB (1992) Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences. Statistical Science 7, 457-511.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Hawkins RE, Klimstra WD (1970) A preliminary study of the social organization of white-tailed deer. The Journal of Wildlife Management 34(2), 407-419.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Hawkins RE, Martoglio LD, Montgomery GG (1968) Cannon-netting deer. The Journal of Wildlife Management 32(1), 191-195.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Kautz TM, Belant JL, Beyer DE, Jr, Strickland BK, Duquette JF (2020) Influence of body mass and environmental conditions on winter mortality risk of a northern ungulate: evidence for a late-winter survival bottleneck. Ecology and Evolution 10(3), 1666-1677.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Kellner K (2021) jagsUI: a wrapper around ‘rjags’ to streamline ‘JAGS’ analyses. version 1.5.2. Available at https://cran.r-project.org/package=jagsUI
LaSharr TN, Dwinnell SPH, Jakopak RP, Randall J, Kaiser RC, Thonhoff M, Scurlock B, Fieseler T, Hymas N, Hymas A, Roberts N, Hobbs J, Zornes M, Brimeyer DG, Fralick G, Monteith KL (2023) Behavior, nutrition, and environment drive survival of a large herbivore in the face of extreme winter conditions. Ecosphere 14(7), e4601.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Lefort S, Tremblay J-P, Fournier F, Potvin F, Huot J (2007) Importance of balsam fir as winter forage for white-tailed deer at the northeastern limit of their distribution range. Ecoscience 14(1), 109-116.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Louthan AM, Doak DF, Angert AL (2015) Where and when do species interactions set range limits? Trends in Ecology & Evolution 30(12), 780-792.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife (MDIFW) (2012) Living on the edge – winter feeding of deer: what you should know. MDIFW. Available at https://www.maine.gov/ifw/docs/deer_winter_feeding.pdf
Major JT, Sherburne JA (1987) Interspecific relationships of coyotes, bobcats, and red foxes in western Maine. The Journal of Wildlife Management 51(3), 606-616.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
McLellan SR, Vashon JH, Johnson EL, Crowley SM, Vashon AD (2018) Fisher predation on Canada lynx in the northeastern United States. The Journal of Wildlife Management 82(8), 1775-1783.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Miller BF, Osborn DA, Lance WR, Howze MB, Warren RJ, Miller KV (2009) Butorphanol-azaperone-medetomidine for immobilization of captive white-tailed deer. Journal of Wildlife Diseases 45(2), 457-467.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Milner JM, Van Beest FM, Schmidt KT, Brook RK, Storaas T (2014) To feed or not to feed? Evidence of the intended and unintended effects of feeding wild ungulates. The Journal of Wildlife Management 78(8), 1322-1334.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Moen AN (1976) Energy conservation by white-tailed deer in the winter. Ecology 57(1), 192-198.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Moratz KL, Gullikson BS, Michel ES, Jenks JA, Grove DM, Jensen WF (2018) Assessing factors affecting adult female white-tailed deer survival in the Northern Great Plains. Wildlife Research 45(8), 679-684.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Morrison SF, Forbes GJ, Young SJ, Lusk S (2003) Within-yard habitat use by white-tailed deer at varying winter severity. Forest Ecology and Management 172(2–3), 173-182.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Murray MH, Becker DJ, Hall RJ, Hernandez SM (2016) Wildlife health and supplemental feeding: a review and management recommendations. Biological Conservation 204, 163-174.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Nelson ME (1995) Winter range arrival and departure of white-tailed deer in northeastern Minnesota. Canadian Journal of Zoology 73(6), 1069-1076.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Norton AS, Storm DJ, Van Deelen TR (2021) White-tailed deer, weather and predation: a new understanding of winter severity for predicting deer mortality. The Journal of Wildlife Management 85(6), 1232-1242.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Patterson BR, Power VA (2002) Contributions of forage competition, harvest, and climate fluctuation to changes in population growth of northern white-tailed deer. Oecologia 130, 62-71.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
R Core Team (2024) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Available at https://www.r-project.org/
Ramsey CW (1968) A drop-net deer trap. The Journal of Wildlife Management 32(1), 187-190.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Richens VB, Lavigne GR (1978) Response of white-tailed deer to snowmobiles and snowmobile trails in Maine. The Canadian Field-Naturalist 92(4), 334-344.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Rideout BA (2003) Clostridial diseases in all taxa. In ‘Zoo and wild animel medicine’. (Eds ME Fowler, RE Miller) ch. 72, pp. 712–718. (Saunders: St Louis, MO, USA) 10.1016/B978-1-4160-4047-7.X5001-5
Robinette WL, Julander O, Gashwiler JS, Smith JG, Ashman C, Garrard R (1952) Winter mortality of mule deer in Utah in relation to range condition. The Journal of Wildlife Management 16(3), 289-299.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Sabine DL, Morrison SF, Whitlaw HA, Ballard WB, Forbes GJ, Bowman J (2002) Migration behavior of white-tailed deer under varying winter climate regimes in New Brunswick. The Journal of Wildlife Management 66(3), 718-728.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Simons-Legaard EM, Harrison DJ, Legaard KR (2018) Ineffectiveness of local zoning to reduce regional loss and fragmentation of wintering habitat for white-tailed deer. Forest Ecology and Management 427, 78-85.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Sirén APK, Morelli TL (2020) Interactive range-limit theory (iRLT): an extension for predicting range shifts. Journal of Animal Ecology 89(4), 940-954.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |
Sirén APK, Somos-Valenzuela M, Callahan C, Kilborn JR, Duclos T, Tragert C, Morelli TL (2018) Looking beyond wildlife: using remote cameras to evaluate accuracy of gridded snow data. Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation 4(4), 375-386.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Sirén APK, Hallworth MT, Kilborn JR, Bernier CA, Fortin NL, Geider KD, Patry RK, Cliché RM, Prout LS, Gifford SJ, Wixsom S, Morelli TL, Wilson TL (2024) Monitoring animal populations with cameras using open, multistate, N-mixture models. Ecology and Evolution 14(2), e70583.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Tarr MD, Pekins PJ (2002) Influences of winter supplemental feeding on the energy balance of white-tailed deer fawns in New Hampshire, USA. Canadian Journal of Zoology 80(1), 6-15.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Van Deelen TR, Campa HI, Hamaday M, Haufler JB (1998) Migration and seasonal range dynamics of deer using adjacent deeryards in northern Michigan. The Journal of Wildlife Management 62(1), 205-213.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Vehtari A, Gelman A, Gabry J (2017) Practical Bayesian model evaluation using leave-one-out cross-validation and WAIC. Statistics and Computing 27, 1413-1432.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Vehtari A, Gabry J, Magnusson M, Yao Y, Bürkner P, Paananen T, Gelman A (2024) loo: efficient approximate leave-one-out cross-validation for fitted Bayesian models. version 2.8.0. Available at https://mc-stan.org/loo/
Weiskopf SR, Ledee OE, Thompson LM (2019) Climate change effects on deer and moose in the Midwest. The Journal of Wildlife Management 83(4), 769-781.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Whitlaw HA, Ballard WB, Sabine DL, Young SJ, Jenkins RA, Forbes GJ (1998) Survival and cause-specific mortality rates of adult white-tailed deer in New Brunswick. The Journal of Wildlife Management 62(4), 1335-1341.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Witt JC, Webster CR, Froese RE, Drummer TD, Vucetich JA (2012) Scale-dependent drivers of ungulate patch use along a temporal and spatial gradient of snow depth. Canadian Journal of Zoology 90(8), 972-983.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Wobeser G, Runge W (1975) Rumen overload and rumenitis in white-tailed deer. The Journal of Wildlife Management 39(3), 596-600.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
