Fuelling future fires: predicting variation in fuel hazard and availability across an environmental gradient
Sarah C. McColl-Gausden
A * , Lauren T. Bennett A , Hamish Clarke A and Trent D. Penman A
A
Abstract
Fuel is a key driver of wildfire patterns but the impacts of changing climate on fuel hazard and availability to burn is often poorly understood.
To examine future landscape patterns in fuel hazard and availability across a broad climate- to fuel-limited gradient of native vegetation.
We used six future climate projections to predict fuel hazard (proxy for fuel load and structure) and fuel availability (using vapour pressure deficit) across 11 bioregions in Victoria, Australia. We evaluated shifts in fuel hazard ratings and fuel availability between two time periods: 2020–2039 and 2080–2099.
The greatest shifts in fuel hazard were increases in near-surface and elevated fuel in ecosystems closer to the middle of the climate- to fuel-limited gradient. Fuel hazard was not predicted to change in the most climate-limited areas but predicted increases in vapour pressure deficit indicated more frequent availability to burn.
Global climatic change will likely shift landscape fuel patterns, and any changes will vary depending on an ecosystem’s position along fuel- to climate-limited gradients.
Fuel management will need to consider the risks associated shifting patterns of fuel hazard and availability with the acknowledgement that risk is changing under changing climates.
Keywords: climate, climate change, environmental gradient, fire management, fuel, vapour pressure deficit, wildfire, wildfire risk.
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