Use of a soil moisture model and risk analysis to predict the optimum time for the aerial sowing of pastures on the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales

Abstract

The objective of this study was to determine the time of year that maximized establishment and . minimized the risk of failure in aerial sowing of pasture seed on the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales. This was achieved by relating a set of monthly measurements of establishment spanning two years to mean soil moisture, predicted by a water balance model for the six-week period following sowing. From this relationship, establishment was simulated for 61 years using historical rainfall data to estimate probability density functions of establishment for each week of the year. From these functions it was concluded that maximum establishment with minimum risk can be expected from sowing in the June-July period. For perennial species plant survival over the first summer is of more practical importance than per cent establishment. Our data on plant survival, although not presented, indicated a close relationship existed between establishment and survival and supported the conclusion that the optimal time for oversowing is June-July.