International Journal of Wildland Fire International Journal of Wildland Fire Society
Journal of the International Association of Wildland Fire
REVIEW

Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire

Mike D. Flannigan A C , Meg A. Krawchuk B , William J. de Groot A , B. Mike Wotton A and Lynn M. Gowman A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, 1219 Queen Street-East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON, P6A 2E5, Canada.

B University of California, Berkeley, Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, 335 Mulford Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.

C Corresponding author. Email: mike.flannigan@nrcan.gc.ca

International Journal of Wildland Fire 18(5) 483-507 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF08187
Submitted: 18 November 2008  Accepted: 15 June 2009   Published: 10 August 2009

Abstract

Wildland fire is a global phenomenon, and a result of interactions between climate–weather, fuels and people. Our climate is changing rapidly primarily through the release of greenhouse gases that may have profound and possibly unexpected impacts on global fire activity. The present paper reviews the current understanding of what the future may bring with respect to wildland fire and discusses future options for research and management. To date, research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence but there is a lot of spatial variability, with some areas of no change or even decreases in area burned and occurrence. Fire seasons are lengthening for temperate and boreal regions and this trend should continue in a warmer world. Future trends of fire severity and intensity are difficult to determine owing to the complex and non-linear interactions between weather, vegetation and people. Improved fire data are required along with continued global studies that dynamically include weather, vegetation, people, and other disturbances. Lastly, we need more research on the role of policy, practices and human behaviour because most of the global fire activity is directly attributable to people.

Additional keywords: area burned, carbon, emissions, fire activity, forest fire, intensity, management, modelling, occurrence, review, season, severity, weather.


Acknowledgements

We would like to gratefully acknowledge Florent Mouillot for the contribution of data to produce Fig. 3. We would also like to thank Ivan Csiszar and Minnie Wong for providing Fig. 2, and Alan Cantin for assistance with compiling data.


References


Alencar A, Nepstad D , Diaz Md C V (2006) Forest understory fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and non-ENSO years: area burned and committed carbon emissions. Earth Interactions  10, 1–17.
CrossRef |

Amiro BD (2001) Paired-tower measurements of carbon and energy fluxes following disturbance in the boreal forest. Global Change Biology  7, 253–268.
CrossRef |

Amiro BD, Stocks BJ, Alexander ME, Flannigan MD , Wotton BM (2001) Fire, climate change, carbon and fuel management in the Canadian boreal forest. International Journal of Wildland Fire  10, 405–413.
CrossRef |

Amiro BD, Cantin A, Flannigan MD , de Groot WJ (2009) Future emission from Canadian boreal forest fires. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  39, 383–395.
CrossRef | CAS |

Apps MJ, Kurz WA, Luxmoore RJ, Nilsson LO, Sedjo RA, Schmidt R, Simpson LG , Vinson TS (1993) Boreal forests and tundra. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution  70, 39–53.
CrossRef | CAS |

Aragão L, Malhi Y, Roman-Cuesta RM, Saatchi S, Anderson LO , Shimabukuro YE (2007) Spatial patterns and fire response of recent Amazonian droughts. Geophysical Research Letters  34, L07701.
CrossRef |

Arora VK , Boer GJ (2005) Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models. Journal of Geophysical Research  110, G02008.
CrossRef |

Bachelet D, Neilson RP, Hickler T, Drapek RJ, Lenihan JM, Sykes MT, Smith B, Sitch S , Thonicke K (2003) Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States. Global Biogeochemical Cycles  17, 1045.
CrossRef |

Bachelet D, Lenihan J, Neilson R, Drapek R , Kittel T (2005) Simulating the response of natural ecosystems and their fire regimes to climatic variability in Alaska. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  35, 2244–2257.
CrossRef |

Balshi MS, McGuire AD, Duffy P, Flannigan MD, Walsh J , Melillo J (2008) Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach. Global Change Biology  14, 1–23.


Balzter H, Gerard FF, George C, Weedon GP, Grey W, Combal B, Bartholomé E, Bartalev S , Los S (2007) Coupling of vegetation growing season anomalies and fire activity with hemispheric and regional-scale climate patterns in central and east Siberia. Journal of Climate  20, 3713–3729.
CrossRef |

Beer T , Williams A (1995) Estimating Australian forest-fire danger under conditions of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations. Climatic Change  29, 169–188.
CrossRef |

Bergeron Y , Flannigan MD (1995) Predicting the effects of climate change on fire frequency in the south-eastern Canadian boreal forest. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution  82, 437–444.
CrossRef | CAS |

Bergeron Y, Flannigan MD, Gauthier S, Leduc A , Lefort P (2004) Past, current and future fire frequency in the Canadian boreal forest: implications for sustainable forest management. Ambio  33, 356–360.

PubMed |

Bergeron Y, Cyr D, Drever C, Flannigan MD, Gauthier S, Gauthier S, Kneeshaw D , Lauzon E (2006) Past, current and future fire frequencies in Quebec’s commercial forests: implications for the cumulative effects of harvesting and fire on age-class structure and natural disturbance-based management. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  36, 2737–2744.
CrossRef |

Blackmarr WH (1973) Moisture content influences ignitability of slash pine litter. USDA Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, Research Note SE-173. (Asheville, NC)

Bonan GB, Levis S, Sitch S, Vertenstein M , Oleson KW (2003) A dynamic global vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts and description of simulated vegetation dynamics. Global Change Biology  9, 1543–1566.
CrossRef |

Bond TC, Streets DG, Yarber KF, Nelson SM, Woo J-H , Klimont Z (2004) A technology-based global inventory of black and organic carbon emissions from combustion. Journal of Geophysical Research  109, D14203.
CrossRef |

Bond WJ, Woodward FI , Midgley GF (2005) The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire. The New Phytologist  165, 525–538.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed |

Bond-Lamberty B, Peckham SD, Ahl DE , Gower ST (2007) Fire as the dominant driver of central Canadian boreal forest carbon balance. Nature  450, 89–92.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed |

Bowman DMJS, Balch JK, Artaxo P, Bond WJ, Carlson JM, Cochrane MA, D’Antonio CM , DeFries RS (2009) Fire in the Earth system. Science  324, 481–484.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed |

Brooks ML, D’Antonio CM, Richardson DM, Grace JB, Keeley JE, DiTomaso JM, Hobbs RJ, Pellant M , Pyke D (2004) Effects of invasive alien plants on fire regimes. Bioscience  54, 677–688.
CrossRef |

Brown TJ, Hall BL , Westerling AL (2004) The impact of twenty-first century climate change on wildland fire danger in the western United States: an applications perspective. Climatic Change  62, 365–388.
CrossRef |

Cahoon DR, Stocks BJ, Levine JS, Cofer WRI , O’Neill KP (1992) Seasonal distribution of African savanna fires. Nature  359, 812–815.
CrossRef |

Carcaillet C, Bergeron Y, Richard PJH, Fréchette B, Gauthier S , Prairie YT (2001) Change of fire frequency in the eastern Canadian boreal forests during the Holocene: does vegetation composition or climate trigger the fire regime? Journal of Ecology  89, 930–946.
CrossRef |

Cardoso MF, Hurtt GC, Moore B, Nobre CA , Prins EM (2003) Projecting future fire activity in Amazonia. Global Change Biology  9, 656–669.
CrossRef |

Carmona-Moreno C, Belward A, Malingreau J-P, Hartley A, Garcia-Alegre M, Antonovskiy M, Buchshtaber V , Pivovarov V (2005) Characterizing interannual variations in global fire calendar using data from Earth observing satellites. Global Change Biology  11, 1537–1555.
CrossRef |

Cary GJ, Keane RE, Gardner RH, Lavorel S, Flannigan MD, Davies ID, Li C, Lenihan JM, Rupp TS , Mouillot F (2006) Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather. Landscape Ecology  21, 121–137.
CrossRef |

Cary G, Flannigan MD, Keane R, Bradstock R, Davies I, Li C, Lenihan J, Logan K , Parsons R (2009) Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: evidence from five landscape-fire-succession models. International Journal of Wildland Fire  18, 147–156.
CrossRef |

Chu P-S, Yan W , Fujioka F (2002) Fire–climate relationships and long-lead seasonal wildfire prediction for Hawaii. International Journal of Wildland Fire  11, 25–31.
CrossRef |

Clark JS, Fastie C, Hurtt G, Jackson ST, Johnson C, King GA, Lewis M , Lynch J (1998) Reid’s paradox of rapid plant migration – dispersal theory and interpretation of paleoecological records. Bioscience  48, 13–24.
CrossRef |

Cochrane MA (2003) Fire science for rainforests. Nature  421, 913–919.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed |

Cofer WR, Winstead EL, Stocks BJ, Goldammer JG , Cahoon DR (1998) Crown fire emissions of CO2, CO, H2, CH4, and TNMHC from a dense jack pine boreal forest fire. Geophysical Research Letters  25, 3919–3922.
CrossRef | CAS |

Cottrell A (2005) Communities and bushfire hazard in Australia: more questions than answers. Environmental Hazards  6, 109–114.
CrossRef |

Cramer W, Bondeau A, Woodward FI, Prentice IC, Betts RA, Brovkin V, Cox PM , Fisher V (2001) Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Global Change Biology  7, 357–373.
CrossRef |

Crevoisier C, Shevliakova E, Gloor M, Wirth C , Pacala S (2007) Drivers of fire in the boreal forests: data-constrained design of a prognostic model of burned area for use in dynamic global vegetation models. Journal of Geophysical Research  112, D24112.
CrossRef |

Crutzen PJ, Goldammer JG (Eds) (1993) ‘Fire in the Environment: the Ecological, Atmospheric, and Climatic Importance of Vegetation Fires.’ (Wiley: Chichester, UK)

Cumming SG (2001) Forest type and wildfire in the Alberta boreal mixedwood: what do fires burn? Ecological Applications  11, 97–110.
CrossRef |

D’Antonio CM , Vitousek PM (1992) Biological invasions by exotic grasses, the grass/fire cycle, and global change. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics  23, 63–87.
CrossRef |

de Groot WJ, Bothwell PM, Carlsson DH , Logan KA (2003) Simulating the effects of future fire regimes on western Canadian boreal forests. Journal of Vegetation Science  14, 355–364.
CrossRef |

de Groot WJ, Wardati  , Wang Y (2005) Calibrating the Fine Fuel Moisture Code for grass ignition potential in Sumatra, Indonesia. International Journal of Wildland Fire  14, 161–168.
CrossRef |

de Groot WJ, Pritchard J , Lynham TJ (2009) Forest floor fuel consumption and carbon emissions in Canadian boreal forest fires. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  39, 367–382.
CrossRef | CAS |

Drever CR, Messier C, Bergeron Y , Doyon F (2006) Fire and canopy species composition in the Great Lakes–St Lawrence forest of Témiscamingue, Quebec. Forest Ecology and Management  231, 27–37.
CrossRef |

Drever CR, Bergeron Y, Drever MC, Flannigan MD, Logan T, Messier C (2009) Effects of climate on occurrence and size of large fires in a northern hardwood landscape: historical trends, future predictions, and implications for climate change in Témiscamingue, Québec. Applied Vegetation Science, in press. doi:10.1111/J.1654-109X.2009.01035.X

FAO (2006) Fire management: review of international cooperation. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Fire Management Working Paper FM18E. (Rome)

FAO (2007) Fire management – global assessment 2006. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO Forestry Paper 151. (Rome)

Fernandes PM, Botelho PM, Loureiro C (2002) Models for the sustained ignition and behavior of low-to-moderately intense fires in maritime pine stands. In ‘IV International Conference on Forest Fire Research/2002 Wildland Fire Safety Summit’, 18–23 November 2002, Luso, Coimbra, Portugal. (Millpress Science Publishers: Rotterdam, the Netherlands)

Finney MA (2007) A computational method for optimising fuel treatment locations. International Journal of Wildland Fire  16, 702–711.
CrossRef |

Flanner MG, Zender CS, Randerson JT , Rasch PJ (2007) Present-day forcing and response from black carbon in snow. Journal of Geophysical Research  112, D11202.
CrossRef |

Flannigan MD , Harrington JB (1988) A study of the relation of meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada 1953–80. Journal of Applied Meteorology  27, 441–452.
CrossRef |

Flannigan MD , Van Wagner CE (1991) Climate change and wildfire in Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  21, 66–72.
CrossRef |

Flannigan MD, Bergeron Y, Engelmark O , Wotton BM (1998) Future wildfire in circumboreal forests in relation to global warming. Journal of Vegetation Science  9, 469–476.
CrossRef |

Flannigan MD, Stocks BJ , Wotton BM (2000) Climate change and forest fires. The Science of the Total Environment  262, 221–229.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed |

Flannigan MD, Campbell I, Wotton M, Carcaillet C, Richard P , Bergeron Y (2001) Future fire in Canada’s boreal forest: paleoecology results and general circulation model – regional climate model simulations. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  31, 854–864.
CrossRef |

Flannigan MD, Logan K, Amiro B, Skinner W , Stocks B (2005) Future area burned in Canada. Climatic Change  72, 1–16.
CrossRef | CAS |

Flannigan MD, Amiro BD, Logan KA, Stocks BJ , Wotton BM (2006) Forest fires and climate change in the 21st century. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change  11, 847–859.
CrossRef |

Flannigan MD, Stocks BJ, Turetsky MR , Wotton BM (2009) Impact of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest. Global Change Biology  15, 549–560.
CrossRef |

Fosberg MA, Cramer W, Brovkin V, Fleming R, Gardner RH, Gill AM, Goldammer JG , Keane RE (1999) Strategy for a fire module in dynamic global vegetation models. International Journal of Wildland Fire  9, 79–84.
CrossRef |

Fowler CT (2003) Human health impacts of forest fires in the southern United States: a literature review. Journal of Ecological Anthropology  7, 39–63.


Fried JS, Torn MS , Mills E (2004) The impact of climate change on wildfire severity: a regional forecast for Northern California. Climatic Change  64, 169–191.
CrossRef |

Friedlingstein P , Cox P (2006) Climate–carbon cycle feedback analysis: results from the (CMIP)-M-4 model intercomparison. Journal of Climate  19, 3337–3353.
CrossRef |

Fromm M, Torres O, Diner D, Lindsey D, Vant Hull B, Servranckx R, Shettle EP , Li Z (2008) Stratospheric impact of the Chisholm pyrocumulonimbus eruption: 1. Earth-viewing satellite perspective. Journal of Geophysical Research  113, D08202.
CrossRef |

Fulé PZ, Villanueva-Díaz J , Ramos-Gómez M (2005) Fire regime in a conservation reserve in Chihuahua, Mexico. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  35, 320–330.
CrossRef |

Fuller DO , Murphy K (2006) The ENSO–fire dynamic in insular South-east Asia. Climatic Change  74, 435–455.
CrossRef |

Galik CS , Jackson RB (2009) Risks to forest carbon offset projects in a changing climate. Forest Ecology and Management  257, 2209–2216.
CrossRef |

Gedalof Z, Peterson DL , Mantua NJ (2005) Atmospheric, climatic, and ecological controls on extreme wildfire years in the north-western United States. Ecological Applications  15, 154–174.
CrossRef |

Genton MG, Butry DT, Gumpertz ML , Prestemon JP (2006) Spatio-temporal analysis of wildfire ignitions in the St Johns River Water Management District, Florida. International Journal of Wildland Fire  15, 87–97.
CrossRef |

Gillett NP, Weaver AJ, Zwiers FW , Flannigan MD (2004) Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophysical Research Letters  31, L18211.
CrossRef |

Girardin M-P , Mudelsee M (2008) Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity. Ecological Applications  18, 391–406.
CrossRef | PubMed |

Girardin M-P, Tardif J, Flannigan MD , Bergeron Y (2006) Synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation and boreal Canada summer drought variability of the past three centuries. Journal of Climate  19, 1922–1947.
CrossRef |

Glover D, Jessup T (1999) ‘Indonesia’s Fires and Haze: the Cost of Catastrophe.’ (Singapore Institute of Southeast Asian Studies: Singapore)

Goldammer J (Ed.) (1990) ‘Fire in the Tropical Biota, Ecosystem Processes and Global Challenges.’ (Springer-Verlag: Berlin)

Goldammer JG , Price C (1998) Potential impacts of climate change on fire regimes in the tropics based on Magicc and a GISS GCM-derived lightning model. Climatic Change  39, 273–296.
CrossRef |

Goldammer JG, Statheropoulos M, Andreae MO (2009) Impacts of vegetation fire emissions on the environment, human health, and security: a global perspective. In ‘Developments in Environmental Science’. (Series Ed. SV Krupa) ‘Vol 8: Wildland Fires and Air Pollution.’ (Eds A Bytnerowicz, MJ Arbaugh, AR Riebau, C Andersen) pp. 1–36. (Elsevier: the Netherlands)

González ME , Veblen TT (2006) Climatic influences on fire in Araucaria araucana–Nothofagus forests in the Andean cordillera of south-central Chile. Ecoscience  13, 342–350.
CrossRef |

Harden JW, Trumbore SE, Stocks BJ, Hirsch A, Gower ST, O’Neill KP , Kasischke ES (2000) The role of fire in the boreal carbon budget. Global Change Biology  6, 174–184.
CrossRef |

Hargrove WW, Gardner RH, Turner MG, Romme WH , Despaine DG (2000) Simulating fire patterns in heterogeneous landscapes. Ecological Modelling  135, 243–263.
CrossRef |

He HS, Hao ZQ, Mladenoff DJ, Shao GF, Hu YM , Chang Y (2005) Simulating forest ecosystem response to climate warming incorporating spatial effects in north-eastern China. Journal of Biogeography  32, 2043–2056.
CrossRef |

Heil A , Goldammer JG (2001) Smoke-haze pollution: a review of the 1997 episode in south-east Asia. Regional Environmental Change  2, 24–37.
CrossRef |

Heil A, Langmann B , Aldrian E (2006) Indonesian peat and vegetation fire emissions: study on factors influencing large-scale smoke haze pollution using a regional atmospheric chemistry model. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change  12, 113–133.
CrossRef |

Henderson M, Kalabokidis K, Marmaras E, Konstantinidis P , Marangudakis M (2005) Fire and society: a comparative analysis of wildfire in Greece and the United States. Human Ecology Review  12, 169–182.


Hoffmann WA, Schroeder W , Jackson RB (2002) Positive feedbacks of fire, climate, and vegetation and the conversion of tropical savanna. Geophysical Research Letters  29, 2052.
CrossRef |

IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Eds RK Pachauri, A Reisinger) (Geneva, Switzerland)

Johnson EA , Wowchuk DR (1993) Wildfires in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains and their relationship to mid-tropospheric anomalies. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  23, 1213–1222.
CrossRef |

Kafka V, Parisien MA, Hirsch A, Flannigan MD, Todd JB (2001) Climate change in the prairie provinces: assessing landscape fire behavior potential and evaluating fuel treatment as an adaptation strategy. Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre. (Edmonton, AB)

Kasischke ES, Stocks BJ (Eds) (2000) ‘Fire, Climate Change, and Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest.’ (Springer-Verlag: New York)

Keane RE, Holsinger LM, Parsons RA , Gray K (2008) Climate change effects on historical range and variability of two large landscapes in western Montana, USA. Forest Ecology and Management  254, 375–389.
CrossRef |

Kitzberger T (2002) ENSO as a forewarning tool of regional fire occurrence in northern Patagonia, Argentina. International Journal of Wildland Fire  11, 33–39.
CrossRef |

Kitzberger T, Brown PM, Heyerdahl EK, Swetnam TW , Veblen TT (2007) Contingent Pacific–Atlantic Ocean influence on multicentury wildfire synchrony over western North America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America  104, 543–548.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed |

Kochtubajda B, Flannigan MD, Gyakum JR, Stewart RE, Logan KA , Nguyen T-V (2006) Lightning and fires in the Northwest Territories and responses to future climate change. Arctic  59, 211–221.


Krawchuk MA, Cumming SG, Flannigan MD , Wein RW (2006) Biotic and abiotic regulation of lightning fire initiation in the mixedwood boreal forest. Ecology  87, 458–468.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed |

Krawchuk MA, Moritz MA, Parisien M-A, Van Dorn J , Hayhoe K (2009a) Global pyrogeography: macro-scaled statistical models for understanding the current and future distribution of fire. PLoS ONE  4, e5102.

CrossRef | PubMed |

Krawchuk MA, Cumming SG , Flannigan MD (2009b) Predicted changes in fire weather suggest increases in lightning fire initiation and future area burned in the mixedwood boreal forest. Climatic Change  92, 83–97.
CrossRef | CAS |

Kunii O, Kanagawa S, Yajima I, Hisamatsu Y, Yamamura S, Amagai T , Ismail ITS (2002) The 1997 haze disaster in Indonesia: its air quality and health effects. Archives of Environmental Health  57, 16–22.

CAS | PubMed |

Kurz WA, Stinson G , Rampley G (2008) Could increased boreal forest ecosystem productivity offset carbon losses from increased disturbances? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences  363, 2261–2269.
CrossRef |

Larjavaara M, Kuuluvainen T, Tanskanen H , Venäläinen A (2004) Variation in forest fire ignition probability in Finland. Silva Fennica  38, 253–266.


Lavorel S, Flannigan MD, Lambin EF , Scholes MC (2006) Vulnerability of land systems to fire: interactions among humans, climate, the atmosphere, and ecosystems. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change  12, 33–53.
CrossRef |

Lavoué D, Liousse C, Cachier H, Stocks BJ , Goldammer JG (2000) Modeling of carbonaceous particles emitted by boreal and temperate wildfires at northern latitudes. Journal of Geophysical Research  105, 26 871–26 890.
CrossRef |

Lawson BD, Frandsen WH, Hawkes BC, Dalrymple GN (1997) Probability of sustained smoldering ignition for some boreal duff types. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Forest Management Note 63. (Edmonton, AB)

Le Goff H, Flannigan MD, Bergeron Y , Girardin M-P (2007) Historical fire regime shifts related to climate teleconnections in the Waswanipi area, central Quebec, Canada. International Journal of Wildland Fire  16, 607–618.
CrossRef |

Le Page Y, Pereira JMC, Trigo R, da Camara C, Oom D , Mota B (2008) Global fire activity patterns (1996–2006) and climatic influence: an analysis using the World Fire Atlas. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics  8, 1911–1924.

CAS |

Lenihan JM, Bachelet D, Neilson RP , Drapek R (2008) Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California. Climatic Change  87(Suppl.), 215–230.
CrossRef |

Li C, Flannigan MD , Corns IGW (2000) Influence of potential climate change on forest landscape dynamics of west-central Alberta. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  30, 1905–1912.
CrossRef |

Litvak M, Miller S, Wofsy SC , Goulden M (2003) Effect of stand age on whole ecosystem CO2 exchange in the Canadian boreal forest. Journal of Geophysical Research  108(D3), 8225.
CrossRef |

Lupo AR, Oglesby RJ , Mokhov II (1997) Climatological features of blocking anticyclones: a study of northern hemisphere CCM1 model blocking events in present-day and double CO2 concentration atmosphere. Climate Dynamics  13, 181–195.
CrossRef |

Macias Fauria M , Johnson EA (2006) Large-scale climatic patterns control large lightning fire occurrence in Canada and Alaska forest regions. Journal of Geophysical Research  111, G04008.
CrossRef |

Macias Fauria M , Johnson EA (2008) Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences  363, 2317–2329.
CrossRef |

Mahaffey K (1999) Methylmercury: a new look at the risks. Public Health Reports 114, 396–399, 402–413.

Malanson GP , Westman WE (1991) Modeling interactive effects of climate change, air pollution, and fire on a California shrubland. Climatic Change  18, 363–376.
CrossRef |

Malevsky-Malevich SP, Molkentin EK, Nadyozhina ED , Shklyarevich OB (2008) An assessment of potential change in wildfire activity in the Russian boreal forest zone induced by climate warming during the twenty-first century. Climatic Change  86, 463–474.
CrossRef |

Mandallaz D , Ye R (1997) Prediction of forest fires with Poisson models. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  27, 1685–1694.
CrossRef |

Marlon JR, Bartlein PJ, Carcaillet C, Gavin DG, Harrison SP, Higuera PE, Joos F, Power MJ , Prentice IC (2008) Climate and human influences on global biomass burning over the past two millennia. Nature Geosciences  1, 697–702.
CrossRef | CAS |

Martell DL, Otukol S , Stocks BJ (1987) A logistic model for predicting daily people-caused forest fire occurrence in Ontario. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  17, 394–401.
CrossRef |

Martell DL, Bevilacqua E , Stocks BJ (1989) Modelling seasonal variation in daily people-caused forest fire occurrence. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  19, 1555–1563.
CrossRef |

McAlpine RS , Hirsch KG (1998) LEOPARDS – Level of protection analysis software. Forestry Chronicle  75, 615–621.


McCoy VM , Burn CR (2005) Potential alteration by climate change of the forest-fire regime in the boreal forest of central Yukon Territory. Arctic  58, 276–285.


McKenzie D, Gedalof Z, Peterson DL , Mote P (2004) Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation. Conservation Biology  18, 890–902.
CrossRef |

Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, Kitoh  A, Knutti R, et al. (2007) Global climate projections. In ‘Climate Change 2007: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’. (Eds S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, KB Averyt, M Tignor, HL Miller) pp. 747–845. (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK)

Meyn A, White PS, Buhk C , Jentsch A (2007) Environmental drivers of large, infrequent wildfires: the emerging conceptual model. Progress in Physical Geography  31, 287–312.
CrossRef |

Miller NL , Schlegel NJ (2006) Climate change projected fire weather sensitivity: California Santa Ana wind occurrence. Geophysical Research Letters  33, L15711.
CrossRef |

Moriondo M, Good P, Durao R, Bindi M, Giannakopoulos C , Corte-Real J (2006) Potential impact of climate change on fire risk in the Mediterranean area. Climate Research  31, 85–95.
CrossRef |

Moritz MA , Stephens SL (2008) Fire and sustainability: considerations for California’s altered future climate. Climatic Change  87, 265–271.
CrossRef |

Mouillot F , Field CB (2005) Fire history and the global carbon budget: a 1° × 1° fire history reconstruction for the 20th century. Global Change Biology  11, 398–420.
CrossRef |

Mouillot F, Rambal S , Joffre R (2002) Simulating climate change impacts on fire frequency and vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem. Global Change Biology  8, 423–437.
CrossRef |

Müller WA , Roeckner E (2008) ENSO teleconnections in projections of future climate in ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Climate Dynamics  31, 533–549.
CrossRef |

Nepstad DC, Verissimo A, Alencar A, Nobre C, Lima E, Lefebvre P, Schlesinger P , Potter C (1999) Large-scale impoverishment of Amazonian forests by logging and fire. Nature  398, 505–508.
CrossRef | CAS |

Newark MJ (1975) The relationship between forest fire occurrence and 500 millibars longwave ridging. Atmosphere  13, 26–33.


Nitschke CR , Innes JL (2008) Climatic change and fire potential in south-central British Columbia, Canada. Global Change Biology  14, 841–855.
CrossRef |

Page SE, Siegert F, Rieley JO, Boehm H-DV, Jaya A , Limin S (2002) The amount of carbon released during peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997. Nature  420, 61–65.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed |

Pereira MG, Trigo RM, da Camara CC, Pereira JMC , Meite SM (2005) Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology  129, 11–25.
CrossRef |

Pitman AJ, Narisma GT , McAneney J (2007) The impact of climate change on the risk of forest and grassland fires in Australia. Climatic Change  84, 383–401.
CrossRef |

Power M, Marlon J, Ortiz N, Bartlein P, Harrison S, Mayle F, Ballouche A , Bradshaw R (2008) Changes in fire regimes since the last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data. Climate Dynamics  30, 887–907.
CrossRef |

Prasad VK, Badarinath KVS , Eaturu A (2008) Biophysical and anthropogenic controls of forest fires in the Deccan Plateau, India. Journal of Environmental Management  86, 1–13.
CrossRef | PubMed |

Preisler HK, Brillinger DR, Burgan RE , Benoit JW (2004) Probability-based models for estimation of wildfire risk. International Journal of Wildland Fire  13, 133–142.
CrossRef |

Preisler HK, Chen S, Fujioka F, Benoit JW , Westerling AL (2008) Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices. International Journal of Wildland Fire  17, 305–316.
CrossRef |

Prestemon JP , Butry DT (2005) Time to burn: modeling wildland arson as an autoregressive crime function. American Journal of Agricultural Economics  87, 756–770.
CrossRef |

Price C , Rind D (1994) The impact of a 2×CO2 climate on lightning-caused fires. Journal of Climate  7, 1484–1494.
CrossRef |

Pyne SJ (2007) ‘Awful Splendour – a History of Fire in Canada.’ (University of British Columbia Press: Vancouver, BC)

Pyne SJ (2008) Passing the torch. The American Scholar  77, 22–33.


Ramanathan V , Carmichael G (2008) Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon. Nature Geoscience  1, 221–227.
CrossRef | CAS |

Randerson JT, Liu H, Flanner MG, Chambers SD, Jin Y, Hess PG, Pfister G , Mack MC (2006) The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming. Science  314, 1130–1132.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed |

Raupach MR, Marland G, Ciais P, Le Quéré C, Canadell JG, Klepper G , Field CB (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America  104, 10 288–10 293.
CrossRef | CAS |

Riaño D, Moreno Ruiz JA, Martínez JB , Ustin SL (2007) Burned area forecasting using past burned area records and Southern Oscillation Index for tropical Africa (1981–1999). Remote Sensing of Environment  107, 571–581.
CrossRef |

Rinsland CP, Dufour G, Boone CD, Bernath PF, Chiou L, Coheur P-F, Turquety S , Clerbaux C (2007) Satellite boreal measurements over Alaska and Canada during June–July 2004: simultaneous measurements of upper tropospheric CO, C2H6, HCN, CH3Cl, CH4, C2H2, CH3OH, HCOOH, OCS, and SF6 mixing ratios. Global Biogeochemical Cycles  21, GB3008.
CrossRef |

Rittmaster R, Adamowicz WL, Amiro B , Pelletier RT (2006) Economic analysis of health effects from forest fires. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  36, 868–877.
CrossRef |

Román-Cuesta RM, Gracia M , Retana J (2003) Environmental and human factors influencing fire trends in ENSO and non-ENSO years in tropical Mexico. Ecological Applications  13, 1177–1192.
CrossRef |

Roulet N, Moore T, Bubier J , Lafluer P (1992) Northern fens – methane flux and climatic change. Tellus. B  44, 100–105.
CrossRef |

Running SW (2008) Ecosystem disturbance, carbon, and climate. Science  321, 652–653.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed |

Russell-Smith J, Yates CP, Whitehead PJ, Smith R, Craig R, Allan GE, Thackway R , Frakes I (2007) Bushfires ‘down under’: patterns and implications of contemporary Australian landscape burning. International Journal of Wildland Fire  16, 361–377.
CrossRef |

Russell-Smith J, Murphy BP, Meyer MCP, Cook GD, Maier S, Edwards AC, Schatz J , Brocklehurst P (2009) Improving estimates of savanna burning emissions for greenhouse accounting in northern Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire  18, 1–18.
CrossRef | CAS |

Sastry N (2002) Forest fires, air pollution, and mortality in south-east Asia. Demography  39, 1–23.
CrossRef | PubMed |

Scholze M, Knorr W, Arnell NW , Prentice IC (2006) A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America  103, 13 116–13 120.
CrossRef | CAS |

Schultz MG, Heil A, Hoelzemann JJ, Spessa A, Thonicke K, Goldammer JG, Held AC, Pereira JMC , van het Bolscher M (2008) Global wildland fire emissions from 1960 to 2000. Global Biogeochemical Cycles  22, GB2002.
CrossRef |

Schumacher S , Bugmann H (2006) The relative importance of climatic effects, wildfires and management for future forest landscape dynamics in the Swiss Alps. Global Change Biology  12, 1435–1450.
CrossRef |

Shang Z, He HS, Lytle DE, Shifley SR , Crow TR (2007) Modeling the long-term effects of fire suppression on central hardwood forests in Missouri Ozarks, using LANDIS. Forest Ecology and Management  242, 776–790.
CrossRef |

Shindell D , Faluvegi G (2009) Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century. Nature Geosciences  2, 294–300.
CrossRef | CAS |

Siegert F, Ruecker G, Hinrichs A , Hoffmann AA (2001) Increased damage from fires in logged forests during droughts caused by El Niño. Nature  414, 437–440.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed |

Sigler JM, Lee X , Munger W (2003) Emission and long-range transport of gaseous mercury from a large-scale Canadian boreal forest fire. Environmental Science & Technology  37, 4343–4347.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed |

Simard AJ, Haines DA , Main WA (1985) Relations between El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies and wildland fire activity in the United States. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology  36, 93–104.
CrossRef |

Skinner WR, Stocks BJ, Martell DL, Bonsal B , Shabbar A (1999) The association between circulation anomalies in the mid-troposphere and area burned by wildland fire in Canada. Theoretical and Applied Climatology  63, 89–105.
CrossRef |

Skinner WR, Shabbar A, Flannigan MD , Logan K (2006) Large forest fires in Canada and the relationship to global sea surface temperatures. Journal of Geophysical Research  111, D14106.
CrossRef |

Soja AJ, Tchebakova NM, French NHF, Flannigan MD, Shugart HH, Stocks BJ, Sukhinin AI, Parfenova EI, Chapin FS , Stackhouse PW (2007) Climate-induced boreal forest change: predictions versus current observations. Global and Planetary Change  56, 274–296.
CrossRef |

Spichtinger N, Damoah R, Eckhardt S, Forster C, James P, Beirle S, Marbach T, Wagner T, Novelli PC , Stohl A (2004) Boreal forest fires in 1997 and 1998: a seasonal comparison using transport model simulations and measurement data. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics  4, 1857–1868.

CAS |

Stocks BJ (1993) Global warming and forest fires in Canada. Forestry Chronicle  69, 290–293.


Stocks BJ, Fosberg MA, Lynham TJ, Mearns L, Wotton BM, Yang Q, Jin J-Z, Lawrence K, Hartley GR, Mason JA , McKenney DW (1998) Climate change and forest fire potential in Russian and Canadian boreal forests. Climatic Change  38, 1–13.
CrossRef |

Stocks BJ, Mason JA, Todd JB, Bosch EM, Wotton BM, Amiro BD, Flannigan MD, Hirsch KG, Logan KA, Martell DL , Skinner WR (2003) Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997. Journal of Geophysical Research  108, 8149.
CrossRef |

Swetnam TW , Betancourt JL (1990) Fire–Southern Oscillation relations in the south-western United States. Science  249, 1017–1020.
CrossRef | PubMed |

Swetnam TW , Betancourt JL (1998) Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic variability in the American South-west. Journal of Climate  11, 3128–3147.
CrossRef |

Tansey K, Grégoire J-M, Defourny P, Leigh R, Pekel J-F, van Bogaert E , Bartholomé E (2008) A new, global, multi-national (2000–2007) burnt area product at 1-km resolution. Geophysical Research Letters  35, L01401.
CrossRef |

Theobald DM , Romme WH (2007) Expansion of the US wildland–urban interface. Landscape and Urban Planning  83, 340–354.
CrossRef |

Thonicke K , Cramer W (2006) Long-term trends in vegetation dynamics and forest fires in Brandenburg (Germany) under a changing climate. Natural Hazards  38, 283–300.
CrossRef |

Thonicke K, Venevsky S, Sitch S , Cramer W (2001) The role of fire disturbance for global vegetation dynamics: coupling fire into a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Global Ecology and Biogeography  10, 661–677.
CrossRef |

Thonicke K, Prentice IC , Hewitt C (2005) Modeling glacial-interglacial changes in global fire regimes and trace gas emissions. Global Biogeochemical Cycles  19, GB3008.
CrossRef |

Trouet V, Taylor AH, Carleton AM , Skinner CN (2009) Interannual variations in fire weather, fire extent, and synoptic-scale circulation patterns in northern California and Oregon. Theoretical and Applied Climatology  95, 349–360.
CrossRef |

Troup AJ (1965) The ‘Southern Oscillation’. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society  91, 490–506.
CrossRef |

Turetsky MR, Wieder RK, Halsey LA , Vitt DH (2002) Current disturbance and the diminishing peatland carbon sink. Geophysical Research Letters  29(11), 1526.
CrossRef |

Turetsky MR, Harden JW, Friedli HR, Flannigan MD, Payne N, Crock J , Radke L (2006) Wildfires threaten mercury stocks in northern soils. Geophysical Research Letters  33, L16403.
CrossRef |

Tymstra C, Flannigan MD, Armitage OB , Logan K (2007) Impact of climate change on area burned in Alberta’s boreal forest. International Journal of Wildland Fire  16, 153–160.
CrossRef |

US EPA (2004) Six common air pollutants. Available at http://www.epa.gov/oar/urbanair/6poll.html [Verified 3 November 2004]

van der Werf GR, Randerson JT, Giglio L, Collatz GJ, Kasibhatla PS , Arellano AF (2006) Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics  6, 3423–3441.

CAS |

Vega-Garcia C, Woodard PM, Titus SJ, Adamowicz WL , Lee BS (1995) A logit model for predicting the daily occurrence of human caused forest-fires. International Journal of Wildland Fire  5, 101–111.
CrossRef |

Venevsky S , Maksyutov S (2007) SEVER: a modification of the LPJ global dynamic vegetation model for daily time step and parallel computation. Environmental Modelling & Software  22, 104–109.
CrossRef |

Verdon DC, Kiem AS , Franks SW (2004) Multi-decadal variability of forest fire risk – eastern Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire  13, 165–171.
CrossRef |

Viegas DX (Ed.) (2002) ‘Proceedings of the IV International Conference on Forest Fire Research & Wildland Fire Safety Summit.’ 18–23 November 2002, Luso, Coimbra, Portugal. (Millpress: Rotterdam, the Netherlands)

Volney WJA , Fleming RA (2000) Climate change and impacts of boreal forest insects. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment  82, 283–294.
CrossRef |

Weber MG , Flannigan MD (1997) Canadian boreal forest ecosystem structure and function in a changing climate: impact on fire regimes. Environmental Reviews  5, 145–166.
CrossRef | CAS |

Weeks ER, Tian Y, Urbach JS, Ide K, Swinney HL , Ghil M (1997) Transitions between blocked and zonal flows in a rotating annulus with topography. Science  278, 1598–1601.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed |

Westerling AL , Bryant BP (2008) Climate change and wildfire in California. Climatic Change  87, 231–249.
CrossRef |

Westerling AL , Swetnam TW (2003) Interannual to decadal drought and wildfire in the western US. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union  84, 545–560.
CrossRef |

Westerling AL, Hidalgo HG, Cayan DR , Swetnam TW (2006) Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity. Science  313, 940–943.
CrossRef | CAS | PubMed |

Williams AAJ, Karoly DJ , Tapper N (2001) The sensitivity of Australian fire danger to climate change. Climatic Change  49, 171–191.
CrossRef | CAS |

Wotton BM , Flannigan MD (1993) Length of the fire season in a changing climate. Forestry Chronicle  69, 187–192.


Wotton BM , Martell DL (2005) A lightning fire occurrence model for Ontario. Canadian Journal of Forest Research  35, 1389–1401.
CrossRef |

Wotton BM, Stocks BJ (2006) Fire management in Canada: vulnerability and risk trends. In ‘Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy: Background Synthesis, Analysis, and Perspectives’. (Eds K Hirsch, P Fuglem) pp. 49–55. (Canadian Council of Forest Ministers, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre: Edmonton, AB)

Wotton BM, Martell DL , Logan KA (2003) Climate change and people-caused forest fire occurrence in Ontario. Climatic Change  60, 275–295.
CrossRef | CAS |

Xanthopoulos G, Caballero D, Galante M, Alexandrian D, Rigolot E, Marzano R (2006) Forest fuels management in Europe. In ‘Fuels Management – How to Measure Success’, 28–30 March 2006, Portland, OR. (Eds PL Andrews, BW Butler) USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Proceedings RMRS-P-41, pp. 29–46. (Fort Collins, CO)

Zhang Y , Battisti D (1997) ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–93. Journal of Climate  10, 1004–1020.
CrossRef |

Zhang Y, He HS , Yang J (2008) The wildland–urban interface dynamics in the south-eastern US from 1990 to 2000. Landscape and Urban Planning  85, 155–162.
CrossRef |

Zoltai SC, Martikainen PJ (1996) The role of forested peatlands in the global carbon cycle. In ‘Forest Ecosystems, Forest Management and the Global Carbon Cycle’, NATO ASI Series I. (Eds MJ Apps, DT Price) pp. 47–58. (Springer-Verlag: Heidelberg)

Zoltai SC, Morrissey LA, Livingston GP , de Groot WJ (1998) Effects of fires on carbon cycling in North American boreal peatlands. Environmental Reviews  6, 13–24.
CrossRef | CAS |




1 The term ‘fire severity’ is used in different ways in the published literature. Here, it is defined as a component of the fire regime: indicating depth of burn or fuel consumption of the ground layer.

2 The number of fires and difficulty in controlling those fires is generally indicated here by the term ‘fire load’.


Export Citation Cited By (361)

View Altmetrics