We used the FARSITE fire spread simulator to predict the spread of a set of wildfires that occurred in southern Europe. We statistically evaluated the accuracy of FARSITE in predicting the actual fires. We observed a positive effect of the use of customised fuel models vs standard models on simulation accuracy.
International Journal of Wildland Fire
Volume 25 Number 10 2016
Wildfire forecasting tools are needed to improve firefighting operations. An inverse modelling-based system is developed in this paper to predict short-term fire dynamics. The system assimilates airborne infrared images to improve the forward model’s performance. The algorithm is successfully tested with real-scale shrubland fire experiments.
We investigated the main drivers of crown fire by analysing GIS and remote sensing data for 23 bushfires from New South Wales dry forests. Our findings suggest that the influence on crown fire likelihood of weather, fuel levels and slope are not adequately incorporated into current fire behaviour models and fuel management strategies.
WF15162Rapid-response tools and datasets for post-fire remediation: linking remote sensing and process-based hydrological models
An online site provides tools and datasets for the rapid integration of remote sensing observations of burn severity into spatial- and process-based models to aid decision-making activities related to post-fire risk assessment and rehabilitation.
WF15228Positive effects of fire on birds may appear only under narrow combinations of fire severity and time-since-fire
We calculated occurrence rates of 50 bird species in a mixed-conifer forest for 10 years following fire and found that most species (60%) were more abundant in burned than unburned forest, but the positive response to fire was often apparent only under a specific combination of fire severity and time-since-fire parameters.
We investigated the utility of using shrub growth-ring measurements to estimate annual biomass accumulation in a stand of southern California chaparral from 4 to 11 years after burning. The pattern of biomass accumulation tracked closely with precipitation.
WF15164Social acceptability of fuel management in the Australian Capital Territory and surrounding region
This paper explores acceptability of prescribed burning, livestock grazing and mechanical thinning used to reduce wildland fire risk to life and property, in an Australian context. All were considered acceptable by most survey respondents. Acceptability was associated with social trust, knowledge of fuel management and feeling vulnerable to wildland fire.
WF16022The impact of traditional fire management on soil carbon and nitrogen pools in a montane forest, southern Ethiopia
Traditional fire management has been used in African landscapes but there is uncertainty in our understanding of its impact on soil carbon and nitrogen. Our study shows that traditional fire management did not affect forest floor or mineral soil carbon and nitrogen pools in a montane forest in southern Ethiopia.
The peer-reviewed and edited version of record published online before inclusion in an issue
WF15150Faster prediction of wildfire behaviour by physical models through application of proper orthogonal decomposition
In this paper, proper orthogonal decomposition is applied for the first time to the prediction of fire evolution by physical modelling. The paper shows how this reduction method is able to dramatically reduce the computational cost of physical models without causing the loss of important information.
WF15204Fire severity alters spatio–temporal movements and habitat utilisation by an arboreal marsupial, the mountain brushtail possum (Trichosurus cunninghami)
Large wildfires which burn uniformly may have a greater impact on fauna than fires which generate diverse patterns of burnt and unburnt habitat. We found that Possum movement behaviour varied between landscapes which were burnt more evenly than those with diverse burn patterns. The spatial patterns of habitat created by large destructive wildfires can alter the behaviour and ecological relationships of fauna in forest ecosystems.
A comparison of historical wildfire records in California shows large differences between written and spatial data sources, especially in data completeness. Smaller discrepancies in annual area burned result in cumulatively large differences over time. Different datasets reflect different strengths and weaknesses and these should be considered in any historical analysis.
WF15218Dead organic matter and the dynamics of carbon and greenhouse gas emissions in frequently burnt savannas
An integrated approach was developed to quantify changes in both dead organic matter and emissions of nitrous oxide and methane with changes in fire regime. A case study in tropical savannas of northern Australia indicated that altered fire management increased carbon stock by more than 3 times the carbon dioxide equivalent change in emissions.
Complex interactions between the environment and heat transfer processes can dynamically change the way a fire propagates. In this paper, we parametrise these effects using fire line curvature. Using curvature in a dynamic computational model shows a closer match to experimental fires than models without a curvature parameter.
WF16038Near-term probabilistic forecast of significant wildfire events for the Western United States
We present a probabilistic model for forecasting expected number of significant wildfire events for the upcoming week for the Western United States. The procedure may be used to provide daily maps of fire risk with expected number and quantiles of significant fires in each risk category.
WF16072Spatial variability of surface fuels in treated and untreated ponderosa pine forests of the southern Rocky Mountains
Fuel component semivariance increased with particle diameter regardless of stand condition, with stand-level fuel component loading providing strong predictions (R2 = 0.99). Spatial scales of autocorrelation followed closely (R2 = 0.88) with fuel particle diameter. Incorporating spatial knowledge into fuel sampling will improve fire modelling and wildlife habitat assessments over singular stand-level means.
WF15120Spatial and temporal variations of fire regimes in the Canadian Rocky Mountains and Foothills of southern Alberta
Distinct historical fire regimes with evidence of an anthropogenic influence exist between the Subalpine, Montane and Upper Foothills of southern Alberta. Post-1948 median fire return intervals have departed by up to 223% in the Montane and Foothills, while the Subalpine had a 42% departure in the most rugged region.
Time after wildfire is often discussed as an opportunity for policy change and adaptation, where new regulations and rebuilding can transform the wildland–urban interface, reducing future risk. Our study of recovery post-fire in Colorado found some evidence of adaptation, but also extensive reinvestment in hazard-prone environments, supported by local governments.
WF16016Soil heating during the complete combustion of mega-logs and broadcast burning in central Oregon USA pumice soils
Extreme soil heating is a concern to forest managers. Temperatures lethal to fine roots and soil organisms were measured beneath combusted mega-logs to at least 10 cm for about seven hours. Soils in a broadcast burn of masticated fuels experienced lethal temperatures in most cases only at the surface for about an hour.
WF15223Visual assessments of fuel loads are poorly related to destructively sampled fuel loads in eucalypt forests
Visual assessment of forest fuels is often used to estimate fuel load and predict fire behaviour. More than 500 visual assessments were compared against destructively sampled fuel loads, showing poor correlation between the two and highlighting several serious deficiencies in the operational fuel hazard assessment process.
We investigated the effect of human development on the area burned in Alberta over a 31-year period. We tested the importance of several human factors. Our results point to a possible ‘ecological frontier’ in which human ignitions increase landscape fire susceptibility in areas where recent industrial expansion and forested wildlands overlap.
These articles have been peer reviewed and accepted for publication. They are still in production and have not been edited, so may differ from the final published form.
Post-fire dispersal characteristics of charcoal particles in the Daxing'an Mountains of northeast China and their implications for reconstructing past fire activities
How a risk focus in emergency management can restrict community resilience â a case study from Victoria, Australia
Probabilistic prediction of wildfire economic losses to housing in Cyprus using Bayesian Network analysis
Recently but infrequently burnt breeding sites are favoured by threatened Gouldian finches (Erythrura gouldiae)
Assessing the potential of the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) for estimating burn severity in eastern Canadian boreal forests
A simulation and optimization procedure to model daily suppression resource transfers during a fire season in Colorado
Seed tolerance to heating is better predicted by seed dormancy than by habitat type in Neotropical savanna grasses
Relationships between fire severity and recruitment in arid grassland dominated by the obligate-seeding soft spinifex (Triodia pungens)
Fire severity alters spatio-temporal movements and habitat utilization by an arboreal marsupial, the Mountain Brushtail Possum (Trichosurus Cunninghami)
Faster prediction of wildfire behaviour by physical models through application of Proper Orthogonal Decomposition
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International Journal of Wildland Fire 18 (1)Jon E. Keeley
International Journal of Wildland Fire 12 (2)Paulo M. Fernandes, Hermínio S. Botelho
International Journal of Wildland Fire 11 (1)Jolie Pollet, Philip N. Omi
Effects of large fires on biodiversity in south-eastern Australia: disaster or template for diversity?International Journal of Wildland Fire 17 (6)Ross A. Bradstock
Customary use of fire by indigenous peoples in northern Australia: its contemporary role in savanna managementInternational Journal of Wildland Fire 12 (4)Peter J. Whitehead, D. M. J. S. Bowman, Noel Preece, Fiona Fraser, Peter Cooke
Large fires in Australian alpine landscapes: their part in the historical fire regime and their impacts on alpine biodiversityInternational Journal of Wildland Fire 17 (6)Richard J. Williams, Carl-Henrik Wahren, Arn D. Tolsma, Glenn M. Sanecki, Warwick A. Papst, Bronwyn A. Myers, Keith L. McDougall, Dean A. Heinze, Ken Green
International Journal of Wildland Fire 15 (3)Leigh B. Lentile, Zachary A. Holden, Alistair M. S. Smith, Michael J. Falkowski, Andrew T. Hudak, Penelope Morgan, Sarah A. Lewis, Paul E. Gessler, Nate C. Benson
Community safety during the 2009 Australian 'Black Saturday' bushfires: an analysis of household preparedness and responseInternational Journal of Wildland Fire 22 (6)Joshua Whittaker, Katharine Haynes, John Handmer, Jim McLennan
International Journal of Wildland Fire 19 (3)B. M. Wotton, C. A. Nock, M. D. Flannigan
International Journal of Wildland Fire 16 (4)Jeremy Russell-Smith, Cameron P. Yates, Peter J. Whitehead, Richard Smith, Ron Craig, Grant E. Allan, Richard Thackway, Ian Frakes, Shane Cridland, Mick C. P. Meyer, A. Malcolm Gill
International Journal of Wildland Fire 17 (6)Tania Schoennagel, Erica A. H. Smithwick, Monica G. Turner
Contemporary fire regimes of northern Australia, 1997–2001: change since Aboriginal occupancy, challenges for sustainable managementInternational Journal of Wildland Fire 12 (4)Jeremy Russell-Smith, Cameron Yates, Andrew Edwards, Grant E. Allan, Garry D. Cook, Peter Cooke, Ron Craig, Belinda Heath, Richard Smith
International Journal of Wildland Fire 17 (6)A. Malcolm Gill, Grant Allan
Assessing crown fire potential in coniferous forests of western North America: a critique of current approaches and recent simulation studiesInternational Journal of Wildland Fire 19 (4)Miguel G. Cruz, Martin E. Alexander
International Journal of Wildland Fire 19 (2)William E. Mell, Samuel L. Manzello, Alexander Maranghides, David Butry, Ronald G. Rehm
International Journal of Wildland Fire 8 (4)RJ Williams, AM Gill, PHR Moore
A review of logistic regression models used to predict post-fire tree mortality of western North American conifersInternational Journal of Wildland Fire 21 (1)Travis Woolley, David C. Shaw, Lisa M. Ganio, Stephen Fitzgerald
Mapping wildland fuels for fire management across multiple scales: Integrating remote sensing, GIS, and biophysical modelingInternational Journal of Wildland Fire 10 (4)Robert E. Keane, Robert Burgan, Jan van Wagtendonk
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